# PVRs: Death of the 30-Second Spot?



## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

While penetration for the personal video recorder (PVR) remains low, the TV technology is gaining an audience. And that could create trouble for the TV advertising business, research firm Yankee Group said.

In its report, "Death of the 30-Second Commercial," Yankee Group said the advertising industry will feel the impact of PVRs in mid-to-late 2005, when penetration for the device grows to 10 million subscribers.

Yankee Group said "Guerilla" branding initiatives will become necessary as different creative products become a requirement for different TV advertising formats. And changes in advertising paradigms will give rise to a new breed of cross-functional experts, the firm added.

With satellite services, cable operators and consumer electronics manufacturers integrating PVR technology into set-top boxes and other devices, Yankee Group analyst Adi Kishore forecasted that 19.1 million homes will have PVRs by year-end 2006.

"Thus, by 2007, nearly one-fifth of all U.S. homes will be able to fast-forward TV commercials. This subversion of the ad-sponsored TV model eventually will disrupt the entire value chain for television," Kishore said.

However, even with the predicted changes in the industry, the 30-second spot will remain the most widely used television-advertising format for the next five years, Yankee Group said.

From http://www.skyreport.com (Used with permission)


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## snagel (Mar 24, 2002)

I don't know why they worry so much about that anyway, hell I use mine to record commercials at times when I see a product that I am interested in.
Because of doing this and the capability of rewinding to save the commercial , this has actually been the reason that I have made some purchases. Those purchases ranged from small to large purchases. I know, I know, this is sick, really sick. However I don't feel that I am the only one that does this. So they ought to really re think this. Sometimes in works in their favor.


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## dbronstein (Oct 21, 2002)

What they are going to have to do is make the commercials more interesting so people want to watch them - basically make every ad like they do for the super bowl. There is also going to be a lot more product placement and show sponsorship, like Ford is doing with the premier of 24.

Dennis


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## John Walsh (Apr 22, 2002)

According to this article the networks aren't really worried about it

http://www.forbes.com/forbes/2003/0929/076.html


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## John Walsh (Apr 22, 2002)

Just like the music industry and MP3 they have to learn to keep up with technology, not fight it. More product placement is probably part of the answer.

Take a look at what Nascar has done. all the cars are 200 mph billboards.


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## AppliedAggression (Aug 16, 2003)

I don't particular believe that. Many people include I, still watch many "live" shows. And thus watch the commercials like everyone else.


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## tampa8 (Mar 30, 2002)

The movie industry jumped to conclusions years ago when video recorders came out. They said it would end their industry. They could not have been more wrong. People's interest in movies and going to them went way way up. Now it is common to see movies go to DVD quite soon after their run in the movie houses because the industry knows it goes hand in hand. I see the same situation here, based on my use of the DVR. I enjoy a good commercial. I also want to see what different Cell Phone providers are offering, or other products that I am interested. With the DVR I actually sometimes replay a good commercial or replay an offer by a company made in a commercial. I suspect if you never want to watch a commercial you won't with or without a DVR. Others I suspect do what I do, skip commercials you probably would not watch anyway, and possibly watch more than once those you like or are interested in using the DVR. I think alot more research needs to be done before assuming the new technology is bad for commercals.


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## Mike Richardson (Jun 12, 2003)

When I'm watching a recorded show on the 501, I'll click the 30 second skip button, watch a few seconds of the ad. If it interests me I'll let it play, if it's duplicate or uninteresting or etc., then I'll skip it.


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## John Walsh (Apr 22, 2002)

Mike Richardson said:


> When I'm watching a recorded show on the 501, I'll click the 30 second skip button, watch a few seconds of the ad. If it interests me I'll let it play, if it's duplicate or uninteresting or etc., then I'll skip it.


I do the same


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## greylar (Oct 31, 2002)

I think that eventually you will see a change in the way shows are broadcast. Its likely they will move away from 'traditional commercials' to in-show branding, kind of like what they did in the 50's. That way there is nothing to skip since the ad will be right in the show.

G


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## Jacob S (Apr 14, 2002)

I agree, I believe a combination of product placement and shorter commercials may be what will happen as a result. They may make the commercials so short that it would take just as long if not longer to push the button than the commercial lasts. 

They could even do like what TNN did and have a black banner bar at the bottom. That would tick a lot of people off but if there was a hit show, thats what you would have to put up with to watch it and perhaps that channel would be available without the black bar for an extra charge or on demand on the hard drive in the future.


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## Mark Holtz (Mar 23, 2002)

I can see it now.... the corporate boardroom makes their programming decision on the amount of product placements that can be included in the show.


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## dtcarson (Jan 10, 2003)

The banner bar would mean I don't watch that station at all anymore. Product placement is one thing, it's in every movie [sometimes too subtle, but very powerful--ask M&M's about a little fellow named E.T.], and we used to have 'The Uncle Miltie Show Sponsored by ****' or 'Esso Variety Hour', which I don't have a problem with. But to banner bar, or screen-bug it, imho, is unacceptable. 
I do FF through commercials, but like others said, the ones for products i'm already interested in, or the ones that look interesting and/or creative, or the ones with cute actresses  [I really like that Glad Bag girl, for some reason], I'll stop and watch, maybe multiple times. Wasn't the Britney Spears Pepsi commercial the most re-watched item during the Super Bowl a year or so back? Annoying, stupid, or insulting commercials, I'll skip right by without a second thought. If they're too bad, they might make me actively avoid the product, instead of just ignoring it. [ie, Geico insurance, most stupid sitcoms, and anything that decides to give any money whatsoever to Carrot Top.]
What still surprises me, is they had a built-in ad critic service, at, well, Adcritic.com, and they couldn't figure out how to make money off that. There was a site where people actively spent time downloading and viewing commercials, and it went bust. Obviously the suits don't know how to take advantage of technology.
I think, at the present time, the PVR isn't as much of a danger to the commercials as it will be in a few years, and they have other issues that are debatably more important [sell better products, have less stupid commercials], but no time like the present to play Chicken Little.

I don't know if it would be profitable, but surely there's room for an All-Commercial channel. I'd like seeing commercials for old or defunct products, like TVLand does occasionally, but you've gotta think there'd be some revenue in there somewhere. Heck, Dish has got what, 17 Shop-at-home channels?

Or maybe more nefarious means--reciever-based commercials. As more people get either HD tuners, sat receivers, or Cable boxes, have the commercial based on the box, not the program. When booting up, when shutting down, every X minutes, the box plays a non-skippable, non-PVRable commercial. There would be less time/bandwidth for commercials, but the time spent on commercials has increased greatly in the past decades, so we'd be getting back to a manageable state [I was watching The Outer Limits on DvD the other day, and the episodes are 50-53 minutes including credits. Now a 60 minute show is 42-45 minutes, if that, and they usually cut the credits, timeshift, or PiP the credits to cram another commercial in.

And that leads to another query: I don't think commercials are inherently evil. They help network TV be free, and subsidize the cost of everything else. Also they do inform of products and services in a wide ranging method. But just because the PVR makes it easy to skip commercials, doesn't mean most people do or want to. I submit that there are three main factors that cause the avoidance of commercials, and the PVR is simply the tool used: 1. People want to watch the show, only the show. Esp. since so many people have 'pay tv', they think Why do I have to watch commercials, I've already paid for it. 2. Many commercials are stupid, inane, or insulting. No one wants to be sold a product that insults them, and only masochists like to be insulted or talked down to. 3. We are over-commercialized. Between 8-10 minutes of commercial per 30 minutes of regular TV, magazines full of ads, public radio with commercials every two songs, spam email, junk snail mail, and of course banner, popup, flash, and interactive ads on the web, we have reached 'commercial overload.' 'No more!' cries the consumer, and now he has the tools to empower him; PVR, ad-blockers, Do Not Call lists, etc. And yes, I know 'those ads help to pay for the product', and I do click on ads for websites I enjoy, but I probably fall more into numbers 1 and 2 with regards to television.

Now, the trick the industry has to pull off, is determining which of those factors affects them the most, and work together at countering it and offering a benefit to the commercials, rather than pulling a DMA and shoving it down our throats, which will only result in even more backlash.

Actually, this is kind of exciting--between the Do Not Call list and things like this PVR article, the broad mass of the consumer base is finally able to express their opinions to the industries. And the industries don't like it.


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## xgrep (Aug 15, 2002)

dbronstein said:


> What they are going to have to do is make the commercials more interesting so people want to watch them - basically make every ad like they do for the super bowl.


In Europe (in France, anyway), commercially sponsored programming isn't interrupted except for once every half hour, during which you get around 5 minutes of commercials. And there's even an official 5-second "logo" to let you know that commercials are starting and ending. You know what? In the 10+ years we lived in France, we watched almost every commercial. Many were better than the programming (well, ok, not hard in France  and I sometimes tuned in *just* for the commercials.

I wouldn't mind at all if TV advertising were like this in the US. Unfortunately, half of the ads I see are moronic Asian imported vehicles being vigorously shifted and wound to insane RPMs. The other half are for anti-depressants and allergy medications. These all deserve to be sent to /dev/null, and maybe DVRs will results in real improvements.

x


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## xgrep (Aug 15, 2002)

dtcarson said:


> Or maybe more nefarious means--reciever-based commercials.


My Comcast box has this - commercials show up on the menu, info, and guide screens. I hope the advertisers aren't paying too much for these, because I don't even notice the content - they're pure noise. I'd be happier if they were gone, but they're just annoyances, not real impediments, like a banner bar would be. I agree with you, I wouldn't watch such a station at all unless there was something incredible on.

x


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