# DirecTV Loses 746,000 subs in three months



## Nick (Apr 23, 2002)

In reviewing a summary of Directv's 4Q financials at SkyReport.com, I couldn't help
but notice that D* suffered a loss of 3/4 million subscribers during fourth-quarter of
calendar year 2006.

According to their report, gross subscriber additions for D* numbered slightly over
a million (1,021,000) during the fourth quarter of 2006, while net customer adds for
the quarter totaled only 275,000. This means that 746,000 subscribers cancelled
their Directv service during the three-month period ending Dec. 31.


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## AlbertZeroK (Jan 28, 2006)

Well, attrition isn't that easy, there are alot of things you don't see. For example. If you move, it's often better to cancel your service and get new service where you move to. It's a good way to get both new equipment and cheaper rates for a few months.


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## JeffBowser (Dec 21, 2006)

That stat is pretty meaningless taken alone like that. How does it compare to same time year before, and how does it compare historically ? Only with those figures could we draw any conclusions from that/


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## bonscott87 (Jan 21, 2003)

That doesn't mean anything really. You'll find similar numbers with all providers. All that matters is this:

1) They had a net positive subscriber growth
2) They had a much lower churn they have had in basically forever

This means that *less* people have left DirecTV then in the past.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Actually the numbers are good. DirecTV lowered their churn rate both year vs year (06 to 05) and 4th Qtr (05 t0 06). 275,000 net ADDITIONS is execellent.

You should take the time to listen to the webcast, it is available at directv.com - you will have a much better understanding of what those numbers mean if you do so.


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## JeffBowser (Dec 21, 2006)

It is interesting what a headline can do to spin a number. The thread headline could easily have been anything ScoBuck said as well.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

They also went through a process of reviewing their "lowest" quality customers (aka those most likely NOT to pay their bill), and applied some new rules on them, like pre-paying a certain amount, and that also added to the loss of customers.

Plus with the agressive Cable-Co offereings over the last 3 months, the fact that they NETTED-OUT 250k up, that is pretty impressive (IMHO)


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

Considering that DirecTV only had a net addition of 125,000 in the second quarter of 2006, that means the numbers are much better.


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## gpg (Aug 19, 2006)

The D* CEO said churn was the lowest in 3 years! I guess losing 746K subs can be a good thing.


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## wilbur_the_goose (Aug 16, 2006)

Shoot - I remember when they had a total of 750K subs


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

bonscott87 said:


> That doesn't mean anything really. You'll find similar numbers with all providers. All that matters is this:
> 
> 1) They had a net positive subscriber growth
> 2) They had a much lower churn they have had in basically forever
> ...


A) you have to seperate the voluntary and involuntary churn...involuntary churn continues to decrease, but voluntary churn continues to increase. So Dtv is doing a agood job eliminating bad credit/risky custoemrs but many profitable customers are leaving on their own.

b) for 2005 they had net additions of almost 1.2 Milllion..in 2006 that dropped to 820K...a 31% decrease in the number of NET subscriber growth. I don't know how tha compares to Dish or big cableco's but that does not sound good . Espesiclly as HUGE a success as the HR20 with demand being so HUGE...boy if it had issues, they might have had a net loss


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

JeffBowser said:


> That stat is pretty meaningless taken alone like that. How does it compare to same time year before, and how does it compare historically ? Only with those figures could we draw any conclusions from that/


2005 Net additions : 1,193,000
2006 Net additions 820K

that's not a good trend

and for those that cancel service as re -up elsewhere when the move( as was brought up)..that would have zero impact on _net additions_


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## ansky (Oct 11, 2005)

I'm curious to see how the numbers add up once FiOS becomes more prevalent across the country. I plan to dump D* the second FiOS becomes available in my neighborhood. With the high cost of D* equipment lately (i.e. "lease fees") it is no longer worth it for me to have D*.


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## dodge boy (Mar 31, 2006)

A friend of mine, and I am sure there are alot more than just him, get NFLST ONLY, grandfatered in at being alowed to do so, and after football season would show up a loss of a customer and really not mean anything. I think you would need to see the amount of "New" subs in say, August and delete and there may be a corilation between new "full time" subs and those that only get NFLST.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

ansky said:


> I plan to dump D* the second FiOS becomes available in my neighborhood.


A lot of people say this, but is FIOS really a better deal? FIOS is competitive with Dish Network and probably a better deal than DirecTV at the moment, but next year, that may change.

FIOS is clearly _not_ what they promised it would be. FIOS is just another cable provider except that they're just getting started and they are going through the growing pains that any new cable operator has.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

mikewolf13 said:


> 2005 Net additions : 1,193,000
> 2006 Net additions 820K
> 
> that's not a good trend


It isn't a good trend, but given the situation at DirecTV with finicky DVRs, price increases on their most popular offerings and a dearth of HD programming, it isn't at all surprising.

They are on a decided down cycle due, in part, to the funny business that they did to make the Liberty deal more profitable for New Corp. Once they get back to the business of serving customers instead of the master, things could turn around.


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## MikeR7 (Jun 17, 2006)

ansky said:


> I'm curious to see how the numbers add up once FiOS becomes more prevalent across the country. I plan to dump D* the second FiOS becomes available in my neighborhood. With the high cost of D* equipment lately (i.e. "lease fees") it is no longer worth it for me to have D*.


I am not sure FIOS will ever be "more prevalent" across the country. I am a Verizon customer for DSL/phone, and they won't even hazard a guess as to when FIOS will be available in my area. If I were to guess, 5-6 year out at least. Plus, they will have to get Sunday Ticket or something like it before I would switch. Might have both, if FIOS is really worth it. But 5-6 years is a long time in this business, might be a totally different way of getting everything, like over the natural gas lines or something.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

This intrigues me...


ansky said:


> With the high cost of D* equipment lately (i.e. "lease fees") it is no longer worth it for me to have D*.


Instead, you will go to FiOS and more likely have no choice on boxes and likely pay a higher rental fee on these boxes. Is that correct? Just wondering, as I am having FiOS internet hooked up, but have no desire for the TV.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

MikeR7 said:


> But 5-6 years is a long time in this business, might be a totally different way of getting everything, like over the natural gas lines or something.


Or AT&T's U-verse offering which still has a chance of being a real high bandwidth video provider.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> This intrigues me...Instead, you will go to FiOS and more likely have no choice on boxes and likely pay a higher rental fee on these boxes.


Practically speaking, how many choices do you have with DirecTV?


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## Jhon69 (Mar 28, 2006)

MikeR7 said:


> I am not sure FIOS will ever be "more prevalent" across the country. I am a Verizon customer for DSL/phone, and they won't even hazard a guess as to when FIOS will be available in my area. If I were to guess, 5-6 year out at least. Plus, they will have to get Sunday Ticket or something like it before I would switch. Might have both, if FIOS is really worth it. But 5-6 years is a long time in this business, might be a totally different way of getting everything, like over the natural gas lines or something.


Just hope they don't put anything electric on the natural gas line.:eek2:


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## Jhon69 (Mar 28, 2006)

harsh said:


> Or AT&T's U-verse offering which still has a chance of being a real high bandwidth video provider.


That's what I'm waiting for.


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## Ryanm86 (Oct 18, 2006)

Uggghhh, you D* lovers make me sick. Do they pay you to spew that "company line" crap? I will be honest, the only reason I stay with them is because they are promising over 50 hd channels by years end. If they don't then I am outta here. But I have faith that they will "Show me the money!"


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## MikeR7 (Jun 17, 2006)

Ryanm86 said:


> Uggghhh, you D* lovers make me sick. Do they pay you to spew that "company line" crap? I will be honest, the only reason I stay with them is because they are promising over 50 hd channels by years end. If they don't then I am outta here. But I have faith that they will "Show me the money!"


Well, why don't you tell us what you really think? :lol:

Yes that Directv direct deposit to my account is very nice every month! :hurah:

Now, would anyone like to buy a bridge in Arizona?


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## JeffBowser (Dec 21, 2006)

Both DirecTV lovers and DirecTV haters make _me_ sick. It's just TV, not worth any emotion one way or another.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

I also must take some issue with the subject of this post. Dish Network lost 663,000 during third quarter, 2006. I suspect there will be a much higher number of lost subscribers during fourth quarter because of the distant network issue.

Of course, the tables can be turned. This makes the second quarter in a row DirecTV has added over *one million* subscribers, and I recall DirecTV adding a million subscribers in one other quarter before. Dish Network has never added one million susbcribers in a quarter.


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## bwaldron (Oct 24, 2005)

JeffBowser said:


> Both DirecTV lovers and DirecTV haters make _me_ sick. It's just TV, not worth any emotion one way or another.


How do they make you sick, if it's not worth any emotion either way?


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

harsh said:


> Practically speaking, how many choices do you have with DirecTV?


You know, I guess you are correct. It isn't that many _now_. But the assumption is that ansky always needs some new receiver, which is what he stated regarding "lease fees":


> With the high cost of D* equipment lately (i.e. "lease fees") it is no longer worth it for me to have D*.


The monthly lease fees are the mirrored boxes on the account. The initial lease fee is just the same as the former purchase of a receiver, and there are still some choices out there if you are digging for a treasure.


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## Proc (Jan 19, 2006)

Churn is low amont the 4+ millions HD subs. That is why they lock ya in for 2 years.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

harsh said:


> A lot of people say this, but is FIOS really a better deal? FIOS is competitive with Dish Network and probably a better deal than DirecTV at the moment, but next year, that may change.
> 
> FIOS is clearly _not_ what they promised it would be. FIOS is just another cable provider except that they're just getting started and they are going through the growing pains that any new cable operator has.


FIOS is available in my area and I looked into it. Actually, there are many limitations with FIOS that make it unworkable for many - myself included. First and foremost, the sports offerings are BAD. They don't offer any of the out of town FSN's. ALso, they limit a sub to max at 6 receivers (I have 8). All that being said, it isn't better deal unless it meets a particular persons needs.


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## tiger2005 (Sep 23, 2006)

Greg Bimson said:


> This intrigues me...Instead, you will go to FiOS and more likely have no choice on boxes and likely pay a higher rental fee on these boxes. Is that correct? Just wondering, as I am having FiOS internet hooked up, but have no desire for the TV.


TiVo will work with FiOS, which IMO is much better than D*'s current boxes. Until D* adds DLB's to their DVR's, they are at a disadvantage for some of their premium customers IMO. And if the FiOS TV service is as good as their broadband service, where do I sign-up? I've NEVER had a single problem with FiOS since I had it installed. Yes, TV service is much more complex, but if Comcrap can do it I have every bit of faith that Verizon can.


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## bonscott87 (Jan 21, 2003)

mikewolf13 said:


> 2005 Net additions : 1,193,000
> 2006 Net additions 820K
> 
> that's not a good trend
> ...


Of course it's a negative trend. But both DirecTV and Dish are having this same negative trend and the DBS industry as a whole has talked at length in the past year that huge growth for DBS is near an end. They have gotten nearly all they will get and now it's just a matter of maintaining what they have.

So DirecTV is positioning itself pretty well for that by focusing on more "high end" and less fickle customers as well as locking up sports exclusives.

Big growth for DirecTV or Dish is over and they both know it.


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## bonscott87 (Jan 21, 2003)

Ryanm86 said:


> Uggghhh, you D* lovers make me sick. Do they pay you to spew that "company line" crap?


HUH? These types of numbers are nothing new. Check out Dish Networks numbers or even cable for the past 5 years as well as DirecTv's. You obviously don't know what really goes on with subscriber numbers.

They netted subscribers and churn is down. What is bad about that?


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## JeffBowser (Dec 21, 2006)

:lol: The irony is not lost on me



bwaldron said:


> How do they make you sick, if it's not worth any emotion either way?


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## Guest (Feb 8, 2007)

bonscott87 said:


> Big growth for DirecTV or Dish is over and they both know it.


Don't bet on it. When DirecTV has 100 or more HD channels and cable has only a dozen or so, which do you think will show the greatest subscriber growth? Remember a few years back when people were spending hundreds of dollars buying satellite equipment so they could get the dozens of channels that weren't carried on cable? And that was before the satellite companies even had local channels.

Subscriber growth for DBS has slowed in recent years because the cable companies caught up (and even moved ahead for a while with the HD locals), but the same thing will happen again as the satellite companies expand their HD offerings. In order for the cable companies to catch up again, they will have to rebuild their systems again. That will take years, just as it did the last time, and the cost will be enormous.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

rcoleman111 said:


> In order for the cable companies to catch up again, they will have to rebuild their systems again. That will take years, just as it did the last time, and the cost will be enormous.


That is, of course, unless you believe that Comcast has some "magic bullet" to put more HD on their systems without the need to rebuild.


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## JeffBowser (Dec 21, 2006)

I have a more pedestrian reason for sticking to satellite. Where I live, hurricanes are a threat. The cable company's performance post wind-storm was abysmal, some people had no cable for 8 weeks or more, and those that got it sooner had bad signals. I was up and running as soon as I put my dish reflector back on and fired my generator up. I don't know how it is elsewhere, but cable TV reliability in FL is dismal, hurricanes or no hurricanes. What good is a better picture or better whatever, if the service is down. As for the rainfade argument, I can count on one hand the number of times I have had rainfade that lasted longer than a minute, outside a hurricane event.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

I don't recall where I read or heard this from...

But some of the decrease in "new" customers with DirecTV, Dish, and even the Cable-Co's... is also "speculated" to be connected to the decrease in Housing market.

Less people are moving, and buying "new" homes. Which is often when people "change" carriers for TV, Internet, and Phone.

Bottom line: At the end of 2006, they had nearly 850,000 more subscribers then they had at the end of 2005... and given all the "hoopla" about lack of HD channels (As compared to others), and the triple cast-attack from the cable-co's, and the change in DVR technology (starting with the R15), and the change to the leasing model... up 850k? IMHO.. 

And when you read the numbers, those 850k, are in the "demographic", of people who are higher probability customers (aka going to pay their bill), and are higher "tier" (aka spend more)...


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## ansky (Oct 11, 2005)

Greg Bimson said:


> This intrigues me...Instead, you will go to FiOS and more likely have no choice on boxes and likely pay a higher rental fee on these boxes. Is that correct? Just wondering, as I am having FiOS internet hooked up, but have no desire for the TV.


Well, I currently have the R15 DVR and in order to upgrade to HD I would have to get the HR20 which currently has an upfront cost of $299. After much argument with D* they were only willing to go to $199. On top of that, they suck you into a 2-year contract. On top of that I would be paying the $5.99 monthly DVR fee. The FiOS box is about $8.99 a month with no upfront cost, and you can cancel anytime. To me, these D* "lease fees" are ridiculous and that alone would be enough for me to drop the service.


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

ScoBuck said:


> FIOS is available in my area and I looked into it. Actually, there are many limitations with FIOS that make it unworkable for many - myself included. First and foremost, the sports offerings are BAD. They don't offer any of the out of town FSN's. ALso, they limit a sub to max at 6 receivers (I have 8). All that being said, it isn't better deal unless it meets a particular persons needs.


I agree. I did the same thing - when FiOS TV became available around here I did an apples-to-apples comparison, and DirecTV still worked out to be the better deal for me. It all depends on what you're looking for. If you want standard service on one TV with no DVR, then FiOS wins hands down (for $46/month you get a boat-load of channels - $42 for the service, plus $4 for the receiver). If you want DVR service, though, that's where it gets pricey. All companies have very different pricing structures, and whether it's worth it or not will really depend on where you live and what you want.

And you really need to compare accurately. For example, if you go to FiOS you can get an HD DVR for free. Sounds great... except that their single room DVR fee is something like $12 - $13 a month. That's $6 more a month than DirecTV. And over the course of 2 years your shelling out an additional $144 for DVR service. You could argue that's still cheaper than paying $300 for an HR20, but again it depends on what you're looking for. Go to a multiroom DVR, and your fee goes up to $20 a month, and you still need to shell out the extra money for an additional receiver on that second TV.

Also, FiOS really has 1 programming tier. That's it. Yeah, there are add-ons (premium channels, e.g., and a sports pack), but there's no equivalent to total choice and total choice plus (or whatever the packages are called these days).

I'm not trying to slam FiOS - it sounds like a great service, and when I eventually bite the bullet and go HD, I'm going to give them a serious second look, but what you pay really depends on what you want. I also mentioned that it depends on where you live. A guy I work with just switched from Dish to FiOS, and was hit with a $10 fee that the township he lives in slapped on (not sure if that's per month or per year). FiOS is set up with frachises - which means that every township around here works out a separate deal with FiOS - and they need to get rights from every township to turn on their TV service (which is why the internet service is available in more places than their tv service is - at least around here). My main point with this is that you need to look a little deeper than the surface of what each is offering, and do a real comparison to see which is the better deal.


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

Earl Bonovich said:


> I don't recall where I read or heard this from...
> 
> But some of the decrease in "new" customers with DirecTV, Dish, and even the Cable-Co's... is also "speculated" to be connected to the decrease in Housing market.


31% ???

31% is a huge drop IMO...but I admit I have no idea what that compares to Dish or Comcast or TW....just saying when growth slows by 31% that is not a good sign in general....they may be the best in the industry but that would indicate a big problem in the industry.

If net adds dropped by 31%...does it make sense that they suppossedly underestimated the demad for the HR20 so much? Were they expecting a drop of 70% or did they just think new subs (and rememebr they are not targeting low credit quality new adds) wouldn't want a HD DVR?

Some stuff does not corroborate.

Financially they must be doing a great job...profit and expenses look great..but service and cust. sat has to be considered a weakness at this point...

again maybe not compared to the industry..but that's like weighing 350 lbs and thinking your thin cause your friends weigh 375....


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

ansky said:


> Well, I currently have the R15 DVR and in order to upgrade to HD I would have to get the HR20 which currently has an upfront cost of $299. After much argument with D* they were only willing to go to $199. On top of that, they suck you into a 2-year contract. On top of that I would be paying the $5.99 monthly DVR fee. The FiOS box is about $8.99 a month with no upfront cost, and you can cancel anytime. To me, these D* "lease fees" are ridiculous and that alone would be enough for me to drop the service.


Where do you see the FiOS box at $8.99? From what I saw on their website, the standard receiver fee is $4/month. The HD receiver is $10/month. And their DVR service is either $12/month (for single room) or $20/month (for multi-room). And for the multi-room DVR, every additional TV still requires a receiver. So, if you have two HD TVs, and you want a multi-room DVR (if I read their literature correctly), you would pay $20/month (DVR fee) + $10/month (second HD receiver fee). And from what I understand, that 'cancel at any time' isn't correct either. A co-worker just switched, as I mentioned in another post, and he's tied in for a year. Before making the switch, you may want to check the prices again. Not saying it's not worth it, but I think you may have some bad info.


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

Oops... sorry, I was mistaken. Just checked the FiOS site again. A standard receiver is $5/month, not 4. And the single room DVR is $13/month, not 12.


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

Well I was reading a stock evaluation article and D's stock rated 3 Stars out of 5. So I don't think they are in that bad of a shape at this time


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

Greg Bimson said:


> I also must take some issue with the subject of this post. Dish Network lost 663,000 during third quarter, 2006. I suspect there will be a much higher number of lost subscribers during fourth quarter because of the distant network issue.
> 
> Of course, the tables can be turned. This makes the second quarter in a row DirecTV has added over *one million* subscribers, and I recall DirecTV adding a million subscribers in one other quarter before. Dish Network has never added one million susbcribers in a quarter.


Believe me whan i say i don't care .in the sense I have never subbed to Dish, and i looked to compare....

but according to their reports 2005 annual and 3Q 2006...Dish had _Net additions _of 715,000 from Jan 1 2006 to Sep 30 2006. They have not released 4 Q numbers yet...

Their net add for 2005 were 1,135 almost the same as DTV ..growth for first 3Q 2006 appeared to be about the same....It will be interesting to see if their net adds slowed in 4Q as well..


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

Dolly said:


> Well I was reading a stock evaluation article and D's stock rated 3 Stars out of 5. So I don't think they are in that bad of a shape at this time


My point is DTV may be a good stock, it certianly doubled in profit last year...that is a great job for the shareholders...Maybe they are the greatest company ever...i don't know.

What i do know is the subs indicate slowed growth despite not being able to keep their flagship product on the shelves.

They appear to be taking profit now at the expense of customers and greater success down the road which is great when you want to sell a company like they did...

Now you have to maintain that kinda profit (to keep shareholders happy) despite issues with product and reduced growth of customers...

The current products are a liability if they want to turn that around. That is my point. Because many have proclaimed the DVR a huge success..Very little of the positives ( and there are many) inDTV financials are greatly due to the DVR+ line...however -many of the (potential) negatives appear to be directly related to the DVR+ line.

Just my opinion.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> This makes the second quarter in a row DirecTV has added over *one million* subscribers, and I recall DirecTV adding a million subscribers in one other quarter before. Dish Network has never added one million susbcribers in a quarter.


It doesn't really matter how many adds there are if you can't keep the ones you've already got. Dish Network, in the net for Q3 2006, gained considerably more customers than DirecTV.

Another consideration is that E*'s DNS troubles affected up to an estimated 800,000 customers but D*'s ongoing issues (limited HD programming, DVR problems) affect a much larger number of customers.

We'll see how things go with E*'s year end pretty soon and we'll have some fodder for comparison.

For comparison, FIOS added 89,000 subscribers last quarter while their service area increased by 1.2 million homes.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

mikewolf13 said:


> Believe me whan i say i don't care .in the sense I have never subbed to Dish, and i looked to compare....
> 
> but according to their reports 2005 annual and 3Q 2006...Dish had Net additions of 715,000 from Jan 1 2006 to Sep 30 2006. They have not released 4 Q numbers yet...
> 
> Their net add for 2005 were 1,135 almost the same as DTV ..growtha appeared to be same....It will be interesting to see if their net adds slowed in 4Q as well..


But you just fell into the trap that was set on the original post...

DirecTV lost 746,000 customers during fourth quarter, 2006. DirecTV gained 1,021,000 customers, for a net subscriber addition of 275,000.

That means:

DirecTV added 1,021,000 customers in fourth quarter, 2006
DirecTV lost 746,000 customers in fourth quarter, 2006
DirecTV had a net subscriber gain of 275,000 subscribers in fourth quarter, 2006

This is the second quarter in a row where DirecTV has added over 1,000,000 customers (of course this is gross additions).

Dish Network has never added 1,000,000 gross subscribers in a given quarter.

Numbers can be spun any which way, depending on which facts are shown and which are omitted. Take a look at the subject line again.


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## MikeR7 (Jun 17, 2006)

JeffBowser said:


> Both DirecTV lovers and DirecTV haters make _me_ sick. It's just TV, not worth any emotion one way or another.


The ability to watch my favorite football team every week in HD, even though I am out of market, priceless.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

Let's not forget that DirecTV's churn for this fourth quarter of 2006 was very good. DirecTV appears to be losing less than 1.6 percent of their customer base monthly, as of this past quarter. That is very good, and down from prior quarters.

Like I said, numbers are facts, but can be spun any which way...


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## juan ellitinez (Jan 31, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> But you just fell into the trap that was set on the original post...
> 
> DirecTV lost 746,000 customers during fourth quarter, 2006. DirecTV gained 1,021,000 customers, for a net subscriber addition of 275,000.
> 
> ...


Not to rain on your parade.. But at one point E* was adding 2 million subs a year (circa 2000) I am quite sure they had atleast 1 quarter with 1 million gross ads!!


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> Dish Network has never added 1,000,000 gross subscribers in a given quarter.


The only thing that gross subscribers does is explain the high Subscriber Acquisition Costs. DirecTV added over 1 million subscribers last quarter, but Dish managed to net more subscribers by a substantial margin.

New customers cost the company $647 each versus retained customers that bring in $71.41 in revenue. Retention is very important and Dish Network was doing a much better job in Q3 2006.


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## bonscott87 (Jan 21, 2003)

rcoleman111 said:


> Don't bet on it. When DirecTV has 100 or more HD channels and cable has only a dozen or so, which do you think will show the greatest subscriber growth? Remember a few years back when people were spending hundreds of dollars buying satellite equipment so they could get the dozens of channels that weren't carried on cable? And that was before the satellite companies even had local channels.
> 
> Subscriber growth for DBS has slowed in recent years because the cable companies caught up (and even moved ahead for a while with the HD locals), but the same thing will happen again as the satellite companies expand their HD offerings. In order for the cable companies to catch up again, they will have to rebuild their systems again. That will take years, just as it did the last time, and the cost will be enormous.


I mostly agree with you. I'm just repeating what both Dish and DirecTV have said themselves as well as financial analysts.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

juan ellitinez said:


> Not to rain on your parade.. But at one point E* was adding 2 million subs a year (circa 2000) I am quite sure they had atleast 1 quarter with 1 million gross ads!!


Truthfully, without going back and looking at all 10-Q and 10-K statements, I've looked at the past two years, when Dish Network could have added 1,000,000 subs. They came close a couple of times. But at around the year 2000, I'd be hard pressed to believe that Dish Network had added a million new subs in a quarter. By 2000, Dish Network may have had 4,000,000 subscribers total. But there wouldn't have been a quarter where they signed up a million and lost 500,000. That would have been unacceptable churn.

The churn would have been FOUR percent monthly. Not good at all.


harsh said:


> The only thing that gross subscribers does is explain the high Subscriber Acquisition Costs. DirecTV added over 1 million subscribers last quarter, but Dish managed to net more subscribers by a substantial margin.
> 
> New customers cost the company $647 each versus retained customers that bring in $71.41 in revenue. Retention is very important and Dish Network was doing a much better job in Q3 2006.


I agree, to a point.

DirecTV's ARPU as of the Q4 numbers is just over $80. That is $80 a month. DirecTV has decided to tactfully drop lower paying and credit impaired customers. Those improvements this last quarter are quite good.

And there is a second measure to the gross subscriber acquisitions: the amount of people that can be drawn to the company.

Sure the churn may need to be managed a bit better. The days are over for DirecTV to simply try to outdraw Dish Network. DirecTV is more concerned about profitability and now trying to become the HD leader (insert canned laughter here).


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## saleen351 (Mar 28, 2006)

Untile D* has a real answer for internet service they will never compete with cable or FIOS. Sure we have the NFLST but that won't be enough to save D* regarless of how many HD channels they offer because the net is going to be the new source for tv in the up and coming years.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

They also stated that Advanced Products now account for over 30% of the sub base - and further that the churn rate for THESE subs is UNDER 1%. This also bodes VERY WELL for their numbers NEXT year!


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

ScoBuck said:


> They also stated that Advanced Products now account for over 30% of the sub base - and further that the churn rate for THESE subs is UNDER 1%. This also bodes VERY WELL for their numbers NEXT year!


Maybe.

Or maybe most of that 30% is under commitment...

just a thought


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

mikewolf13 said:


> Maybe.
> 
> Or maybe most of that 30% is under commitment...
> 
> just a thought


exactly, thats why it bodes well for next year.


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## DawgLink (Nov 5, 2006)

If D* gets the new sats up and can solidify the MLB service...I expect D* to get a very nice jump in sales in the future.

HDMLB will be a HUGE addition that many seem to downgrade due to their poor #'s last year sub wise


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

As a comparison reading over the 10-Q's, Dish Network ended third quarter 2006 with 12.755 million subscribers. On 22 December, Dish Network issued a press release stating they hit the 13 million subscriber mark. Therefore, we know Dish Network's net additions are at least 245,000 for the fourth quarter, putting Dish Network over 1.085 million net new subscribers for all of 2006. DirecTV only added 820,000 subscribers.


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

Greg Bimson said:


> As a comparison reading over the 10-Q's, Dish Network ended third quarter 2006 with 12.755 million subscribers. On 22 December, Dish Network issued a press release stating they hit the 13 million subscriber mark. Therefore, we know Dish Network's net additions are at least 245,000 for the fourth quarter, putting Dish Network over 1.085 million net new subscribers for all of 2006. DirecTV only added 820,000 subscribers.


Aside from a strict numbers comparison, it also means the 31% decrease in growth was not industry wide...in fact that means Dish was basically even to last year..maybe slight decrease...

makes you wonder what will happen when the R15 adn Hr20 committments start to cycle out....


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## Guest (Feb 9, 2007)

bonscott87 said:


> I mostly agree with you. I'm just repeating what both Dish and DirecTV have said themselves as well as financial analysts.


Thanks, I think DirecTV and Dish are really just guiding the analysts so that they will be able to beat their numbers in upcoming quarters. Most of those Wall Street analysts are just looking at the numbers and don't seem to have an understanding of the technology. When the satellite companies were taking subscribers from cable in droves a few years ago, they all believed it would go on forever, like a tree that grows to the sky. When the cable companies caught up and the growth in satellite slowed, they all jumped on the cable bandwagon.


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## bonscott87 (Jan 21, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> As a comparison reading over the 10-Q's, Dish Network ended third quarter 2006 with 12.755 million subscribers. On 22 December, Dish Network issued a press release stating they hit the 13 million subscriber mark. Therefore, we know Dish Network's net additions are at least 245,000 for the fourth quarter, putting Dish Network over 1.085 million net new subscribers for all of 2006. DirecTV only added 820,000 subscribers.


Also remember that both companies are now going after different people.

DirecTV is getting strict and won't take people with questionable credit and will kick out people that don't pay the bills. Thus they will be signing up less people overall. But they are more concerned with getting that "quality" sub that spends more money and pays their bills. It's all about profit, not raw numbers.

Which would you rather have...20 million subs but have really high churn, high retention costs and lower money spent per average or 16 million subs, low churn, lower retention costs and higher per average spent? I think I'll take the 16 million.

Dish on the other hand has positioned themselves on the low end of the dial. They take questionable credit subscribers and so forth. Not to say it's a bad way to go, just different. But you have to have a lot more subs to make up for the less revenue and greater costs. Or you can be a butthead and drop CourtTV and so forth. 

In the end, how much profit you make is what counts. Not how many subs you have.


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## Jhon69 (Mar 28, 2006)

With the telcos coming into the picture all I can see is subscriptions falling for both D*&E*.More E* than D* because D* has ST and MLB but both will suffer because of cable and the telcos ability to combine services at a discount.


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## Upstream (Jul 4, 2006)

ScoBuck said:


> They also stated that Advanced Products now account for over 30% of the sub base - and further that the churn rate for THESE subs is UNDER 1%. This also bodes VERY WELL for their numbers NEXT year!





mikewolf13 said:


> Maybe.
> 
> Or maybe most of that 30% is under commitment...
> 
> just a thought





ScoBuck said:


> exactly, thats why it bodes well for next year.


But it may not bode well longterm.

I was a happy DTV customer for almost 10 years, and I wouldn't have considered switching providers.

Then I got an R15 DVR. I became a little dissatisfied with DTV because of the problems I experienced with the R15. I became very dissatisfied with DTV because of the lousy customer service and technical support I received when calling about the R15.

When my commitment is up, I will look very seriously at FIOS. Even if the R15 is working fine, the customer service experience has been so bad that DTV will have to do a lot of work to bring my satisfaction level up to the point where it was previously.

I imagine there are lots of customers like me, locked into commitments for advanced problems. I imagine that a lot of those customers will look to switch when their commitments are up.

If DTV is looking at 1% churn rates and concluding they are doing a good job, I expect that they are in for a shock.


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

bonscott87 said:


> In the end, how much profit you make is what counts. Not how many subs you have.


To that end...

Dish Network will probably end the year with about 1.1 million net new subscribers. ARPU as of Q3 numbers was $62.76, or $69.04 million per month for a year. DirecTV had 820,000 net new subscribers in 2006. With an ARPU of 80.80, that means DirecTV will earn $66.26 million per month for a year.

Now the numbers aren't that far off...

Dish Network has (for math's sake we'll say) 13 million subscribers. Multiply the ARPU by the subscribers, and that is $815 million a month revenue.

DirecTV has about 15.95 million subscribers. Multiply the ARPU by the subscribers, and that is $1.289 billion a month revenue.

That is why DirecTV is focused on the higher end and higher paying customers. They are going after those customers that don't care about the triple-play offerings from cable and the phone company.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Greg Bimson said:


> As a comparison reading over the 10-Q's, Dish Network ended third quarter 2006 with 12.755 million subscribers. On 22 December, Dish Network issued a press release stating they hit the 13 million subscriber mark. Therefore, we know Dish Network's net additions are at least 245,000 for the fourth quarter, putting Dish Network over 1.085 million net new subscribers for all of 2006. DirecTV only added 820,000 subscribers.


Obviously numbers can have many different interpretations - to me what the numbers have shown is that the satcos ARE taking net subs from cable, and to me that is the real result. Also, 2006 had E* with a decent HD advantage in quantity of channels, and this had to help them a lot. That being said, when (and of course anticipating no problems with DIRECTV 10 launch) D* rolls out its 'next generation' HD offereing, I honestly believe that will easily sway things towards them. HD is now 'officially it' in the mainstream TV purchaser market.

FIOS is still really only a 'niche' product - and won't have a real impact on the market for some years still. Besides, until they improve their offering in certain areas (especially sports), they will never command a leading role in the marketplace.


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## kaminsco (Nov 27, 2006)

wilbur_the_goose said:


> Shoot - I remember when they had a total of 750K subs


Same here...more like only 500k for me and sub was through two different providers..USSB and Directv..for the 18" dish..


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

Given the size of DBS in general (figure 13M for Dish, and 15M for Direct, and growing), it's hard to make the argument that DBS is going anywhere. There are many factors that need to be looked at. First is saturation of the marketplace. The TV market is getting much more competetive, not less. With more offerings available, comes less room for real robust growth. When I first moved into my house, really the only option was antenna or cable. Now, I can do OTA, Comcast, DirecTV, Dish, or FiOS. And more services will undoutedly be coming over the next couple years. That increased competition pretty much indicates that it's unreasonable to expect any of these companies to continue with stellar growth. Just an increase in subscribers is an achievment in this business environment (in fact, companies like Comcast have been growing the robber-barron way, and have been buying up the competition). In order for one to grow you basically now have to start pulling from your competitor's sand-box. I don't know how many are still out there, e.g. that are still going from OTA to, say, Dish. At one time, you could expect quite a few - you had areas where cable didn't go, because it was cost-prohibitive to get there. And where OTA isn't a good option because the reception is horrible. And DBS was too expensive. But as the cost of DBS dropped, it became much more feasible for folks to pick up the one service that was really available to them - DBS.

Now you have a case where prices are pretty stagnant. When prices drop, folks jump on board. But the prices have been pretty stable for some time now, which means that any growth you experience pretty much HAS to come from your competition. It's like any other industry. While that does mean that companies like DirecTV won't be experiencing explosive growth, it also doesn't mean that they're going to go bankrupt either. The next couple years is going to bring about some serious changes in the market, mainly because of increased competition (companies have to set themselves apart - look at the explosion of coffee shops in Seattle that have their female baristas dress in skimpy outfits -- they did it because there are more coffee shops than people in Seattle, and they needed to find away to stand apart from the competition). Overall, that's good. It means there will be more inovation, and pressure to keep prices lower. It can also mean growing pains as companies learn to adapt.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

wneilson82 said:


> HDMLB will be a HUGE addition that many seem to downgrade due to their poor #'s last year sub wise


I don't think it is reasonable to assume that an extra innings contract equates to a large percentage of HD games.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

bonscott87 said:


> Which would you rather have...20 million subs but have really high churn, high retention costs and lower money spent per average or 16 million subs, low churn, lower retention costs and higher per average spent? I think I'll take the 16 million.


The theory would be ideal, but because Dish Networks churn numbers are lower, it crashes and burns.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Numbers can mean anything and be slanted to anyone's advantage or disadvantage. To me the most telling sign is DISH starting to offer their HD-DVR for free. If that's not a sign that they are looking to hook in HD subs BEFORE DIRECTV 10 (and a genuine concern about the DirecTV HD capcity at that time) is up and running, nothing is. They would never give it away for free unless they felt they had to. None of these companies are in the charity business.

This alone is going to dramatcially drive up their cost of acquisition. It certainly WILL continue to get interesting won't it?


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

ScoBuck said:


> Numbers can mean anything and be slanted to anyone's advantage or disadvantage. To me the most telling sign is DISH starting to offer their HD-DVR for free. If that's not a sign that they are looking to hook in HD subs BEFORE DIRECTV 10 (and a genuine concern about the DirecTV HD capcity at that time) is up and running, nothing is. They would never give it away for free unless they felt they had to. None of these companies are in the charity business.
> 
> This alone is going to dramatcially drive up their cost of acquisition. It certainly WILL continue to get interesting won't it?


I agree with that. I've stated elsewhere that costing structures differ. For example, FiOS gives it's DVRs for free, but their monthly service fees are much higher that DirecTV's. So you either pay up front (ala DirecTV) or you pay more month-to-month (ala FiOS). As a result, I don't think it's enough to drag people from DirecTV to FiOS. But the change in Dish's pricing, I think, is.

Here's my thoughts on this (for what they're worth). First, I agree that Dish giving away a DVR for free, while maintaining a pricing structure similar to DirecTV's, will put pressure on DirecTV to significantly lower the cost of their DVR. Yeah, I agree with Earl (from a totally different thread from some time ago) that this is more of a gimmick than anything else - they give away their old model DVR, while coming out with a new one, so if people want all the new stuff they'll still have to pay. Still, for folks who just want a DVR, getting one for free (even if not the latest) will be a pretty good incentive. DirecTV I believe will have to respond.

Second, I think 2007 is really going to be the year of HD. DirecTV is spending alot of money on getting up to speed on HD (launching 2 new satellites, adding a whole bunch of channels...). The only way it becomes worth-while for them is to sign up subscribers. Initially I think they'll target existing SD customers. They'll do this in two ways. First (and I think the recent change in programming packages sets the stage for this), they'll push more stuff to the higher tiers -- making the lowest tiers not real cost-effective. I think they're going to do the same thing, in some way, with HD. Sort of like what Comcast did - when they rolled out digital cable, they really pushed to get folks to upgrade. To do this, they made the basic service really expensive, relative to what you got. It worked on me -- I left Comcast altogther! Second, I think they're going to offer incentives to go HD. Part of that will be directed at new customers (offering good deals to sign up with DirecTV), but they have a big SD base out there who (like me) are just waiting for a good deal to come along before taking the plunge.

I think I'm like alot of folks out there. The price of good HD TVs are coming down - and basic TVs can be had for as little as $500. Which gives me the incentive to start looking. However, when I tack on the cost of $300 for the DVR, in addition to the cost of an HD package which, for now, is somewhat sparse, it really isn't worth it in my case. If DirecTV started offering their DVR for, say, $100 I would jump on board in a heartbeat. When they have lots of HD offerings I think you'll see DirecTV aggresively trying to get folks on board. Particularly if other services offer things like free HD DVRs. I'm wainting for a DVR4U2 type offer for the HR20... which I think will be coming (just my gut) over the course of 2007.


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

Did DTV breakdown their churn as they did last year (voluntary/involuntary)? IIRC the figure they didn't like last year was the involuntary churn. Some reasons for going to the lease model (units have to be returned and not sold on eBay two months after they're account was cancelled), prepays on some customers and more stringent credit checks. I wonder how those would compare to last year.


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## Zippy (Jan 14, 2007)

Earl Bonovich said:


> They also went through a process of reviewing their "lowest" quality customers (aka those most likely NOT to pay their bill), and applied some new rules on them, like pre-paying a certain amount, and that also added to the loss of customers.
> 
> Plus with the agressive Cable-Co offereings over the last 3 months, the fact that they NETTED-OUT 250k up, that is pretty impressive (IMHO)


As it was explained to me, based on D*'s heart rating system, if you are below a three heart customer, D* actually "loses" operating cost dollars by having you as a subscriber. They break even on you if you are three hearts and make money on you if you are anything over that.

I think the only reason they try to keep a less than 3 heart customer at all is to increase their advertising revenue (based on # of subs). If all that's true, I wouldn't want to take crap from a customer I wasn't really making any money on either (collection lawyers cost money too)...

Gotta love the heart rating system (Mommy, can I have another star? I've been real good  !!)


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## mikewolf13 (Jan 31, 2006)

wneilson82 said:


> If D* gets the new sats up and can solidify the MLB service...I expect D* to get a very nice jump in sales in the future.
> 
> HDMLB will be a HUGE addition that many seem to downgrade due to their poor #'s last year sub wise


MLB will not make or break DTV.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

mikewolf13 said:


> but according to their reports 2005 annual and 3Q 2006...Dish had _Net additions _of 715,000 from Jan 1 2006 to Sep 30 2006. They have not released 4 Q numbers yet...
> 
> Their net add for 2005 were 1,135 almost the same as DTV ..growth for first 3Q 2006 appeared to be about the same....It will be interesting to see if their net adds slowed in 4Q as well..


Dish Network Q4 2006 net adds were 350,000 versus DirecTV's 275,000 net adds. Dish Network continues adding to their subscribership at a higher rate.

E* net 2006 adds: 1,065,000 (8.8% growth)
D* net 2006 adds: 820,000 (5% growth)


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## Greg Bimson (May 5, 2003)

I could be wrong, but I believe the profitiability numbers regarding growth are much reversed, with DirecTV taking much higher profit margins.


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## Jhon69 (Mar 28, 2006)

harsh said:


> Dish Network Q4 2006 net adds were 350,000 versus DirecTV's 275,000 net adds. Dish Network continues adding to their subscribership at a higher rate.
> 
> E* net 2006 adds: 1,065,000 (8.8% growth)
> D* net 2006 adds: 820,000 (5% growth)


When D* gets EI and launches their massive HD package I would look for those numbers to change dramatically.Of course it does take time for people to wake up
take me for example.It took alittle over 4 years to realize the difference.D* was always portrayed as the dark side.Well after 1 year with D* I can say it's not dark over here at all.In fact it definately looks very bright.:sunsmile:


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

DISH has keep its prices lower so that always help to keep the people signing up. They could have added me to their list, if they would have shown up  But D has led for a long time so DISH is still playing catch up. And with maybe the EI deal, plus more HD, plus more new channels being added I think things will turn back around for D. Other than not getting The Tennis Channel :beatdeadhorse: I have to admit I'm glad DISH didn't show up


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## lewah33 (Nov 2, 2006)

mikewolf13 said:


> MLB will not make or break DTV.


then why go after this exclusive deal? If/When this unforunate deal goes through, Directv will get more subscribers, and many of those subscribers will be those who, I assume, be high revenue subscribers. Personally, the prospects of this exclusive deal have induced me to STAY with D* - because I must watch the Red Sox.

So, no MLB will not entirely make D*, but it will bring in new subscribers and help retain some current subscribers.


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

harsh said:


> A lot of people say this, but is FIOS really a better deal? FIOS is competitive with Dish Network and probably a better deal than DirecTV at the moment, but next year, that may change.
> 
> FIOS is clearly _not_ what they promised it would be. FIOS is just another cable provider except that they're just getting started and they are going through the growing pains that any new cable operator has.


So is AT&T through lines. They'll probably raise rates after a while. Once they put wires up, that is!


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

harsh said:


> Dish Network Q4 2006 net adds were 350,000 versus DirecTV's 275,000 net adds. Dish Network continues adding to their subscribership at a higher rate.
> 
> E* net 2006 adds: 1,065,000 (8.8% growth)
> D* net 2006 adds: 820,000 (5% growth)


Many suspect that is going to change drastically this year. I'm one of them. However, I cry for neither, both seem to be making millions.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Greg Bimson said:


> I could be wrong, but I believe the profitiability numbers regarding growth are much reversed, with DirecTV taking much higher profit margins.


That is true, and DirecTV also put in place in 2005 a much stricter credit policy, they have intentionally reduced the number of low credit subs. If they had not done this, the numbers would certainly be different, as many of those unable to get D* in all likelyhood went to (or stayed with E*).


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> That is, of course, unless you believe that Comcast has some "magic bullet" to put more HD on their systems without the need to rebuild.


The last time our cable was rebuilt was 1989, under United Cable.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

harsh said:


> A lot of people say this, but is FIOS really a better deal? FIOS is competitive with Dish Network and probably a better deal than DirecTV at the moment, but next year, that may change.
> 
> FIOS is clearly _not_ what they promised it would be. FIOS is just another cable provider except that they're just getting started and they are going through the growing pains that any new cable operator has.


A better deal in WHAT way? This is just another of those subjective opinions really (as is MINE). I can get FIOS here where I live and did look into it (by gosh they send me mail almost every day).

But their offering is nowhere near as good as DirecTV in the area crucial to me and millions of others. Their sports offering SUCKS - as does DISH. That's what makes competion - the different opinions. More people watch locals than ANY other stations and D* offers HD lils to way more homes than E* - so I think they certainly have the better offering. More people watch NFL ST SF than the lowly rated VOOM channels, and sports in HD is what makes D* by far the best choice for programming choices - its not strictly about who has the most HD channels, when half of them are so lowly rated anyhow.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

lewah33 said:


> then why go after this exclusive deal?


The exclusive EI deal is only part of the prize. What D* is really going after is the MLB channel. If you look closely at the terms of the deal, that's what doing this deal now would get them and why MLB hasn't jumped at the chance at making more money with last year's distributors.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

Dolly said:


> But D has led for a long time so DISH is still playing catch up.


DirecTV clearly had the opportunity to retain their HD leadership, but round about the time that Dish entered the market, they made such a deal about their grand plan that they overlooked what to do in the intervening three or four years.

You can bet that now that Doc Brown says that they offer all the best HD channels, they'll be touting the fact that they carry at least half a night's worth of NGCHD on some days.

I expect two things from DirecTV and somebody please tell me when they deliver:

1. At least 75% of the available national HD content
2. A carefree DVR

Giving credit where credit is due, they've done a pretty good job of rolling out HD LIL locals. If they could only finish out their SD LIL, they'd be a player.


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## armophob (Nov 13, 2006)

Paul Secic said:


> So is AT&T through lines. They'll probably raise rates after a while. Once they put wires up, that is!


Bellsouth/At&t will be bombarding the market very soon with their offering. It is not Fios by name. Similar I'm sure but it will be labeled IPTV. It will be over the phone line, it will be piggybacked with existing adsl service, and I think (don't quote me) it will require a 4 wire phone line into the house.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

mikewolf13 said:


> MLB will not make or break DTV.


It depends on whether or not DirecTV has bet the farm on it. They seem to have a problem with betting that they competition is going to suffer and it never seems to materialize in quite the grand manner that they had hoped.

Remember when they were going to get thousands of E* DNS customers?

Remember when they were the "HD Leader"?

They have an opportunity to get the "HD Leader" crown back, but it is a ways off yet. I'm willing to venture that if they don't get a whole lot of HD up by Thanksgiving, things are going to be grim again this coming holiday season. Last year they kept interest by overstating the number of HD LIL markets. I don't think the natives are going to be so easily distracted by the ramblings of Mr. Mercer this year.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

Greg Bimson said:


> I could be wrong, but I believe the profitiability numbers regarding growth are much reversed, with DirecTV taking much higher profit margins.


It all comes from how you cook your books. DirecTV has been doing whatever it takes to make the stock look good. They even use non-GAAP accounting making direct comparisons difficult. They are also plowing money into misleading advertising and buying some of their own stock shares back.

The 24 month commitment and the threat of losing hundreds of dollars in lease entry fees will continue to keep the hemorrhaging lower, but about six months after the E* exodus begins, the D* version will commence.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

ScoBuck said:


> A better deal in WHAT way?


Lower price, more HD content. FIOS brings TiVo capability, service bundling (which seems to be all the buzz right now) and true VOD.

Not everyone lives and dies on the idea that they have complete access to all sorts of sporting events. For myself, I'd rather attend a high school or college game/match /meet than watch a pro football or baseball game on television.

I've already made the mistake of assuming that the MLB EI subscribership was in the hundreds of thousands. If they don't make up their minds soon for the 2007 season, they'll be lucky to get a hundred thousand subscribers.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

ScoBuck said:


> That is true, and DirecTV also put in place in 2005 a much stricter credit policy, they have intentionally reduced the number of low credit subs. If they had not done this, the numbers would certainly be different, as many of those unable to get D* in all likelyhood went to (or stayed with E*).


Look at it this way:
What are the chances that DirecTV is asking customers to leave because they are too risky?
Are the chances not greater that they really just refusing new risky customers?
What level of creditworthiness were their standards before and what are they now?
Was this whole higher credit standard just a buzz phrase to satisfy the shareholders?
I don't know answers to these questions, but I thought the questions needed to be asked.


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

Well I guess I found this forum to keep it a little bit common at least 
So many of all the posters here are so High Tech, but don't forget there are still people like me around. I don't care about TVs, PCs, Cell Phones and whatever else you can think of all tied together. Nor (shock and surprise) do I ever care about HD :eek2: Come to think of it I think I could, if it were possible, even go back to black and white TV :lol:


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

Dolly said:


> Well I guess I found this forum to keep it a little bit common at least
> So many of all the posters here are so High Tech, but don't forget there are still people like me around. I don't care about TVs, PCs, Cell Phones and whatever else you can think of all tied together. Nor (shock and surprise) do I ever care about HD :eek2: Come to think of it I think I could, if it were possible, even go back to black and white TV :lol:


Well I AM a technical person, and I agree with you - I could care less about triple-play. If I wanted it I would go with Comcast or Verizon. I'm still not convinced that Verizon knows what it's doing in the TV arena - I've read up on the fits and starts the company has had in getting there - and the cost of laying all that fiber is really high - not to mention the fact that they have to get the buy-in from every stinking town/township around here just to allow them to carry TV service, and I think it creates a real financial risk for the company. I think at some point they'll get there, but I'm just not convinced that this is it.

Personally I like having those services separate (granted I have my internet svc and phone svc through Verizon, but my tv service is through DirecTV, and my cell phone service is with Cingular). I think triple-play, or quadruple-play (if that makes any sense) if you want to include cellular, is one of the most over-hyped non-starters going. I don't know anyone who switched to Comcast, e.g., just so he could get them to start carrying his phone service. I know someone who's taken advantage of their triple-play, but it wasn't his first choice - he wanted DirecTV, but, according to the installer who came out, couldn't get it because of the trees in his neighborhood.

Where I don't agree with you is the desire to go HD. With prices for TVs dropping it's getting harder and harder to resist, and I really think that DirecTV is going to start offering real incentives to get folks to switch, and when they're carrying 50 - 100 national HD channels... it's going to be real hard to resist at that point. I just don't think it's worth it yet. Look at all the folks screaming on this form for "more HD!" If the content were there you wouldn't get that. Even the promise of a 100 HD stations by middle of the year doesn't placate them. I get the sense that the real objection is "I paid alot for this TV and HD service, so I want the content NOW!" That's just my impression - and it's not an unreasonable one. But given all that, the math just currently doesn't add up for me. Many of the channels I generally watch aren't in HD, and I've yet to hear plans for them going that direction. When it becomes worth it for me, then I'll make the switch, but I'm not going to just dive off the deep end because it's the "thing to do."


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

harsh said:


> Lower price, more HD content. FIOS brings TiVo capability, service bundling (which seems to be all the buzz right now) and true VOD.
> 
> Not everyone lives and dies on the idea that they have complete access to all sorts of sporting events. For myself, I'd rather attend a high school or college game/match /meet than watch a pro football or baseball game on television.
> 
> I've already made the mistake of assuming that the MLB EI subscribership was in the hundreds of thousands. If they don't make up their minds soon for the 2007 season, they'll be lucky to get a hundred thousand subscribers.


Yeah we know all of this, I just don't know why it gets brought up over and over and over. My point exactly:

If you prefer the sports packages, obviously D* is the better provider.

If you prefer NUMBER of HD channels (regardless of low viewership, etc.) E* is the better provider.

If you don't really care at all about regional sports (because FIOS don't got it), then maybe its the right choice for you.

So no - ONE provider wins - its ALL subjective. For me (and for many others) price is NOT the deciding factor. and for some it is the ONLY factor.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

harsh said:


> Look at it this way:
> What are the chances that DirecTV is asking customers to leave because they are too risky?
> Are the chances not greater that they really just refusing new risky customers?
> What level of creditworthiness were their standards before and what are they now?
> ...


They in fact DO a credit check for new customers, and require an upfront deposit if you don't qualify. They have also posted numbers of vlountary AND invoountary chrun.

You shouldn't let your obvious bias get in the way of ALL the facts BTW.


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

jpl said:


> Well I AM a technical person, and I agree with you - I could care less about triple-play. If I wanted it I would go with Comcast or Verizon. I'm still not convinced that Verizon knows what it's doing in the TV arena - I've read up on the fits and starts the company has had in getting there - and the cost of laying all that fiber is really high - not to mention the fact that they have to get the buy-in from every stinking town/township around here just to allow them to carry TV service, and I think it creates a real financial risk for the company. I think at some point they'll get there, but I'm just not convinced that this is it.
> 
> Personally I like having those services separate (granted I have my internet svc and phone svc through Verizon, but my tv service is through DirecTV, and my cell phone service is with Cingular). I think triple-play, or quadruple-play (if that makes any sense) if you want to include cellular, is one of the most over-hyped non-starters going. I don't know anyone who switched to Comcast, e.g., just so he could get them to start carrying his phone service. I know someone who's taken advantage of their triple-play, but it wasn't his first choice - he wanted DirecTV, but, according to the installer who came out, couldn't get it because of the trees in his neighborhood.
> 
> Where I don't agree with you is the desire to go HD. With prices for TVs dropping it's getting harder and harder to resist, and I really think that DirecTV is going to start offering real incentives to get folks to switch, and when they're carrying 50 - 100 national HD channels... it's going to be real hard to resist at that point. I just don't think it's worth it yet. Look at all the folks screaming on this form for "more HD!" If the content were there you wouldn't get that. Even the promise of a 100 HD stations by middle of the year doesn't placate them. I get the sense that the real objection is "I paid alot for this TV and HD service, so I want the content NOW!" That's just my impression - and it's not an unreasonable one. But given all that, the math just currently doesn't add up for me. Many of the channels I generally watch aren't in HD, and I've yet to hear plans for them going that direction. When it becomes worth it for me, then I'll make the switch, but I'm not going to just dive off the deep end because it's the "thing to do."


While we are on the subject did you know you can get your Verizon phone bill and D bill combined? Personally I wouldn't touch that one. Verizon has the service in my area also and they even have trouble fixing phones  I and people from at least 3 other houses near me were having
problems with our phones. It took 3 weeks and 6 techs to find out there was moisture in the phone lines :eek2: And I know at some point all TVs will be HD ready and the prices on them will be lowered. But I don't care at all about HD at this point :nono2:


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

Dolly said:


> While we are on the subject did you know you can get your Verizon phone bill and D bill combined? Personally I wouldn't touch that one. Verizon has the service in my area also and they even have trouble fixing phones  I and people from at least 3 other houses near me were having
> problems with our phones. It took 3 weeks and 6 techs to find out there was moisture in the phone lines :eek2: And I know at some point all TVs will be HD ready and the prices on them will be lowered. But I don't care at all about HD at this point :nono2:


Verizon has a deal with DirecTV. So, if you go to their website and say "I want to sign up for TV" they'll direct you to the FiOS page if it's available in your area. If not, you'll get sent to another page telling you that you can qualify for TV service via DirecTV. From what I understand, if you sign up for DirecTV through Verizon you can get both on the same bill, and get a discount. When I switched to Verizon for phone service I already had DirecTV (this was before FiOS was available in our area). As a result I didn't qualify for the package bill/discount. Now, could I have called Verizon and tried to work something out? Sure... but I never tried.

I know someone that got an interesting deal with Verizon. At the time FiOS internet was available in the area, but TV wasn't (TV was to follow 8 months later). So Verizon told them "sign up with us for everything (phone, FiOS internet, and DirecTV) and when FiOS TV becomes available in your area, we'll switch you to FiOS TV for free - you won't pay an early termination penalty with DirecTV." They took the deal. Since becoming available (about 4 months ago) I don't know if they switched to FiOS TV.


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

jpl said:


> Verizon has a deal with DirecTV. So, if you go to their website and say "I want to sign up for TV" they'll direct you to the FiOS page if it's available in your area. If not, you'll get sent to another page telling you that you can qualify for TV service via DirecTV. From what I understand, if you sign up for DirecTV through Verizon you can get both on the same bill, and get a discount. When I switched to Verizon for phone service I already had DirecTV (this was before FiOS was available in our area). As a result I didn't qualify for the package bill/discount. Now, could I have called Verizon and tried to work something out? Sure... but I never tried.
> 
> I know someone that got an interesting deal with Verizon. At the time FiOS internet was available in the area, but TV wasn't (TV was to follow 8 months later). So Verizon told them "sign up with us for everything (phone, FiOS internet, and DirecTV) and when FiOS TV becomes available in your area, we'll switch you to FiOS TV for free - you won't pay an early termination penalty with DirecTV." They took the deal. Since becoming available (about 4 months ago) I don't know if they switched to FiOS TV.


They must not be getting many takers because I have had D for years and Verizon told me I could combine the two bills. I'm not about to do it, but Verizon said I could.


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

jpl said:


> Verizon has a deal with DirecTV. So, if you go to their website and say "I want to sign up for TV" they'll direct you to the FiOS page if it's available in your area. If not, you'll get sent to another page telling you that you can qualify for TV service via DirecTV. From what I understand, if you sign up for DirecTV through Verizon you can get both on the same bill, and get a discount. When I switched to Verizon for phone service I already had DirecTV (this was before FiOS was available in our area). As a result I didn't qualify for the package bill/discount. Now, could I have called Verizon and tried to work something out? Sure... but I never tried.
> 
> I know someone that got an interesting deal with Verizon. At the time FiOS internet was available in the area, but TV wasn't (TV was to follow 8 months later). So Verizon told them "sign up with us for everything (phone, FiOS internet, and DirecTV) and when FiOS TV becomes available in your area, we'll switch you to FiOS TV for free - you won't pay an early termination penalty with DirecTV." They took the deal. Since becoming available (about 4 months ago) I don't know if they switched to FiOS TV.


They must not be getting many takers because I have had D for years and Verizon told me I could combine the two bills. I'm not about to do it :nono2: , but Verizon said I could.


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