# Can Sirius Catch XM?



## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

Can Sirius close the valuation gap with XM Satellite Radio?

Tom Watts of SG Cowen, in a research note released Monday, said he expects Sirius subscriber additions to continue lagging XM, but strong second quarter results and other catalysts expected for the second half of the year could close the valuation gap between the companies. "Right now, we prefer the consistent out-performance of XM, but we believe Sirius represents a higher risk, higher potential return on the sector," Watts said.

Sirius' kick-off of its new Daimler-Chrysler deal, finalizing a deal with Ford, and stronger aftermarket sales could accelerate subscriber additions for the second half of the year, Watts said. New distribution through RadioShack could also lift subscriber adds, and all that could help Sirius meet SG Cowen's year-end subscriber estimate of 900,000 customers, which is below the company's 1 million customer goal.

Second quarter results are critical, Watts said, and "must demonstrate the sub acceleration we expect."

He added, "We believe Sirius has advantages over XM in programming, distribution and partnerships which should start to translate to subscriber gains."

http://www.skyreport.com (Used with permission)


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## pinkertonfloyd (Jun 5, 2002)

Not until the programming gets better... =-)


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## LauderDave (Jan 5, 2004)

Howard Stern has hinted repeatedly about moving his show to sat. radio. If that happens, the provider he goes with would see extraordinary subscriber growth. For people who love his show, $10.00-$13.00 a month for an uncensored version of the hillarity would be an easy sacrifice.


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## ocnier (May 8, 2003)

I think you just have to give them time. I know with the *E and the NFL deals in place; they are definitely getting more visibility now. I do wish that they would match xm's price point though.


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## DishDude1 (Apr 13, 2002)

I had XM for 8 months and switched to Sirius, IMO the programming on Sirius far exceeds XM. I like their choice of music much better. I do with Sirius had a PNP device similar to the Roady in size though.


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## BobMurdoch (Apr 24, 2002)

XM has a killer app waiting in the wings though. Their SkyFi2, coming in October, acts like a Tivo in that it lets you rewind songs up to 30 minutes ago (as long as the unit was on) ON ANY CHANNEL. So if you were listening to 20 on 20 and switched to Cinemagic, and heard a movie soundtrack playing, you can rewind to get to the beginning even though you were listening to another channel. It looks like it will even fit into the cradles for all of those folks who got the original SkyFi.


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## Jacob S (Apr 14, 2002)

That functionality where you can rewind no matter what channel you are on before would be a nice function to have for TV DVR's.

Dish Network retailers selling Sirius should help increase sub numbers for them.


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## Eyedox (Nov 25, 2002)

SkyFi2 is going to clean house ... SIRIUS doesn't have anything that can touch it. Their equipment looks cheap in comparison (Audiovox, etc). Also, I used to have Sirius and I switched to XM because I felt both the programming and equipment was much better on XM ... SkyFi, Cinemagic, XM Public Radio's Bob Edwards (used to be on Morning Edition on NPR for 25 years), etc. To me there is no question who is king ... and it shows in the subscriber numbers ... 10 fold difference. Why pay $3 more a month for something worth less? I am glad there are two companies to keep subscription rates competetive, but XM rocks!


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## BobMurdoch (Apr 24, 2002)

Football may be helping them to close the gap. They just passed 600,000 subscribers on Labor Day, and they just reiterated their target of 1,000,000 subscribers by the end of the year.

They both are useful, and I plan on eventually getting both in my car (the in dash unit with either XM or Sirius, and the plug and play for the other.) I want Opie and Anthony AND NFL football. By this time next year I hope to have both.....


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## Guest (Sep 8, 2004)

Eyedox said:


> To me there is no question who is king ... and it shows in the subscriber numbers


It's cool that you prefer XM, but that, and the subscription numbers, doesn't mean it's the best. That is for each individual to decide, not you or a head count. I prefer the music selection on Sirius, and that is what matters.


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## Guest (Sep 8, 2004)

as long as sirius continues to sound like fm--with only the hit songs and many, many repeats, and also very unimaginative song selections, than they will always lag behind XM. In the end, its the music, and XM is supreme.


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## juan ellitinez (Jan 31, 2003)

bif said:


> as long as sirius continues to sound like fm--with only the hit songs and many, many repeats, and also very unimaginative song selections, than they will always lag behind XM. In the end, its the music, and XM is supreme.


I have both XM has lots of repetiveness too :grin:


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

LauderDave said:


> Howard Stern has hinted repeatedly about moving his show to sat. radio. If that happens, the provider he goes with would see extraordinary subscriber growth. For people who love his show, $10.00-$13.00 a month for an uncensored version of the hillarity would be an easy sacrifice.


Why arn't there talk stations on Dish? The RIIA? If so, the FREAKIN RIIA SUX!


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

BobMurdoch said:


> XM has a killer app waiting in the wings though. Their SkyFi2, coming in October, acts like a Tivo in that it lets you rewind songs up to 30 minutes ago (as long as the unit was on) ON ANY CHANNEL. So if you were listening to 20 on 20 and switched to Cinemagic, and heard a movie soundtrack playing, you can rewind to get to the beginning even though you were listening to another channel. It looks like it will even fit into the cradles for all of those folks who got the original SkyFi.


They pulled the product due to RIIA concerns.


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## BobMurdoch (Apr 24, 2002)

Aaaaaah!. No way! Really?

If so, I'm miffed. I was gonna buy one the day it came out.....

Has anyone confirmed this?


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## dfergie (Feb 28, 2003)

Scott posted something about it at Sat guys, but they some in hand to give away in the Summer of Love Contest....


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## Steve Mehs (Mar 21, 2002)

I think you guys are thinking about the XM PCR. The SkyFi2 is something completly different.


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## KTMCDO (May 31, 2003)

DishDude1 said:


> I had XM for 8 months and switched to Sirius, IMO the programming on Sirius far exceeds XM. I like their choice of music much better. I do with Sirius had a PNP device similar to the Roady in size though.


guess you like repeation and more hits based programming 
sirious is getting to fmish i wish they would dump the suits and listen to 
there subscribers 
so for now sirius=fm without the commercials


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## Guest (Sep 14, 2004)

KTMCDO said:


> guess you like repeation and more hits based programming
> sirious is getting to fmish i wish they would dump the suits and listen to
> there subscribers
> so for now sirius=fm without the commercials


Anyone got a gibberish-to-English translator? It might help to figure out what this guy is trying to say.


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## BobMurdoch (Apr 24, 2002)

He's trying to say that XM's music selections are "deeper" while Sirius tends to stick to more familiar fare. If you got excited to hear that XM regularly plays EVERY song released since 1940 in order ("IT" - The History of Music) across their decades channels, then XM is for you. If listening to little heard singles or album tracks doesn't interest you, then stick to the more familiar fare on Sirius which tends to repeat more often since it s a smaller pool of music to choose from when you stick to the familiartracks. He therefore equates Sirius with FM due to the chance for more frequest repeats of songs, although I think it is still light years better than FM).


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

Good question, I'll know how Sirius is when I get it Saturday (getting a Kenwood FM modulator system). I was put off of XM purely because of reception concerns. I was told by the local car stereo shop that Sirius would work much better and by best buy that they were almost identical. But Best Buy was in a bigger city where there may be terrestrial repeaters - there's surely none here. The local radio shop said that the higher look angles to Sirius' satellites helped reception dramatically. And the fact that the demo XM system at Wal-Mart, sitting in a fixed place, gets lots of dropouts was especially concerning...


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## XM DUDE (Jul 9, 2004)

I see alot of XM units flying off the shelves of many stores and the SIRIUS stuff just isen't moving as fast, right now it is hard to get a RoadyII where as SIRIUS equipment can be bought most anywhere, so what does that tell you? :scratch:


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## Guest (Sep 19, 2004)

XM DUDE said:


> I see alot of XM units flying off the shelves of many stores and the SIRIUS stuff just isen't moving as fast, right now it is hard to get a RoadyII where as SIRIUS equipment can be bought most anywhere, so what does that tell you? :scratch:


Well, it tells me we have heard anectodal evidence from someone who obviously has a bias toward XM radio. Therefore such evidence is meaningless.


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## XM DUDE (Jul 9, 2004)

Visitor said:


> Well, it tells me we have heard anectodal evidence from someone who obviously has a bias toward XM radio. Therefore such evidence is meaningless.


It is fact that right now XM is greatly out selling SIRIUS, I want them to both to do well for the sake of the industry. I think SIRIUS needs som srinking of their equipment to be more compeditive, maybe even a walkman device.


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

XM's selling well for two reasons in my opinion (three if you consider more equipment options; the two that made me almost get XM):

Lower monthly fee
NASCAR radio

Unfortuately, XM doesn't work nearly as well in the limited testing I've heard of and the testing of the stereo shop I bought my Sirius from. XM's GEO orbit satellites are easily blocked on many of the roads up in Glacier National Park; Hwy. 35 through Bigfork, MT; and other mountainy tree-enclosed areas whereas Sirius has very minimal to no issues in the same areas with it's Molyna orbit satellites (thus higher look angle). That's why XM's got more repeaters - it's signal is blocked easier. But that does you no good when you live hundreds of miles from the nearest repeater. Thus Sirius is much more popular around here, and I've heard of people getting XM then switching due to poor reception.


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## XM DUDE (Jul 9, 2004)

MarkA said:


> XM's selling well for two reasons in my opinion (three if you consider more equipment options; the two that made me almost get XM):
> 
> Lower monthly fee
> NASCAR radio
> ...


I just read where XM is adding more repeaters soon.


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## RoadRunner (Jun 17, 2004)

I think if you look at retail sales only, the 2 services are very close to a 50-50 split (with a slight XM edge).


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

"I just read where XM is adding more repeaters soon."

Yeah, but I'll bet there'll never be repeaters in Glacier National Park, the National Forests, small town Montana (MAYBE the big 7 cities but it'll be years in the future), etc. Thus Sirius' better satellite signal will make it win among those of us in the middle of nowhere (which is really the primary purpose of sat radio).


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## elgatogeorgi (Oct 6, 2004)

...or they would have a hard time getting people to "CHOOSE" XM over Sirius.

Ive had both services, and I am happy to pay $3 more per month for Sirius. If you live in a city where Clear Channel has a monoply (such as Denver), then you don't need to subscribe to XM. XM is just a paid version of Clear Channel radio stations (which doesn't say much!) 

From the programming, unbelievable DJs (the original MTV VJ's on The Big 80s to Richard Blade and the rest of the KROQ gang on 1st Wave, etc.), the sports (love having the NFL), and the "underdog" attitude at Sirius, there's no comparison. The customer service is outstanding, and the I have never experienced a signal loss that is frequent to XM in non-repeated areas.

We can look at the cola wars as an example. While we all know Coke is the clear "market share" leader, you probably didn't know that Pepsi outsells Coke nearly 2 to 1 in places where consumers have a CHOICE. I think you'll see the same thing in Satellite radio. Where consumers can choose which service to go with, they'll go with the one that doesn't sound just like the FM radio they don't have to pay for.


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## Guest (Oct 6, 2004)

These uneducated posters saying Clear Channel runs XM are funny. The stake by Clear Channel in XM is minimal, and they do allow for some great shows, like "coast to coast". 

If you read every board on satellite radio, its the overwhelming general consensus that Sirius is really "FM without the commericials". EVERYONE agrees that Sirius' playlists are extremly limited with many repeats. 

So, if you like nothing but the "Hits", go with Sirius.


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## Dustin_Moore (Aug 8, 2003)

Somehow I think Howard Stern might close the gap between Sirius and XM.


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## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

Dustin_Moore said:


> Somehow I think Howard Stern might close the gap between Sirius and XM.


I agree. Sirius stock is already up 30%.


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## tikihead (Jan 10, 2003)

Dustin_Moore said:


> Somehow I think Howard Stern might close the gap between Sirius and XM.


That is huge news with Stern announcing the Sirius move, I'm sure the Clear Channel XM connection helped his decision


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

What more likely affected his decision is the fact that Opie and Anthony are already taking the prime time slots on XM. Howard can have a similar Sirius channel 'all to himself'.

What people are failing to factor in - especially those in the stock market - is that it's going to be almost FIFTEEN MONTHS before you hear him on Sirius. I don't think the Stern fans are going to buy Sirius until it's time to move.


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## musicmaker2020 (Apr 19, 2004)

This is my deal with Sirius. 

A lot of consumers IMHO goto the store to choose between the 2 and look at the functionality and design XM has in their recievers.

Those bulky things Sirius has cant touch the Roady or Skyfi models. The boombox options only tightens the grip XM has.

The XM equipment looks very good and clean. The Sirius equipment looks cheap and out of date.

Sad thing is I wish Sirius could see that and team up with some quality companies to make some quality equipment. How can any consumer that doesnt know anything about Sat. radio goto a store and choose a company charging 3 dollars more a month with equipment that looks like it does. When your in business how you present your product means just about as much as what the product can do.

I am an XM sub and have invested a lot in the equipment. I have it in every car and a boombox. I just take my Skyfi with me. and dock it wherever I want. I have Dish network as well so I can hear the Sirius music channels.

I think Sirius is very comparable to XM and even beats XM in some aspects, like having a top rock channel that only plays rock hits. XM has Squizz which is nice if you are looking for new bands and want to hear some mainstream stuff mixed in but they dont have anything like Sirius Octane.

It will be interesting to see what happens with Stern on Sirius. I would hope that it gives a much needed shot in the arm for the company because I would hate to see a monopoly.


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## BobMurdoch (Apr 24, 2002)

I bought some stock in Sirius when they announced the NFL Deal and it went nowhere after an initial bounce.

I think the same fate will hit Sirius as investors figure out that it will 15 months before the Stern show moves to Sirius. You've got a lot of the amateur traders bidding up the price for the next few days, but market pressure should send it back down (ditto for XM's dip which should reverse and go back up). Yes, it is good that Sirius found a way to counter Opie and Anthony, but that $100 Million a year hit they paid to get the show will require an additional 1 million subscribers just to pay for that ALONE. Don't forget that they overpaid for the NFL as well. Cash flow problems should bring them back to earth pretty quick which should kill some of this investor euphoria.

That's not to say that they are going away anytime soon. Stern and the NFL will insure that Sirius becomes a strong #2 (ala Pepsi and Coke). To their credit they are not charging extra for Stern (unless they change their minds later) vs. the $1.99 XM get for O & A.


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## garydw (Apr 22, 2002)

I have Sirius in my truck back home, and love it. 
Currently I am traveling for business, and I am driving a car with XM. I must tell you that I find Sirius to be a better servcie, better choice.

Sirius: WSM- Grand Ole Opry, OUTQ, and many others.

Only one station on XM that I would like Sirius to add, and that is Cinemagic.

Gary


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## skaeight (Jan 15, 2004)

I'm probably going to be getting satellite radio soon, because I may soon have 1 hour and 20 minute comute to and from work each day. I kind of like XM's programming, price, and equipment better, but for the reason's MarkA is stating, I may end up going with Sirius. Part of my daily drive goes over a mountain (albeit this is in Central PA, not MT, so it's not as big), but I really don't want to have to put up with a daily outage of even a few minutes. 

Has anyone else had any experience with wooded / mountainous roads and XM / Sirius?


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