# 2010 week 2 - cancellations anyone?



## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Monday results are in:








A couple of things about this chart.

First, I show how many fewer viewers there are this week over last week. Roughly at 8 pm and 9 pm there we 2 million fewer viewing the broadcast networks. They may be watching cable channels, playing games with their kids, on their computers, sleeping, whatever.

Second, at 8:30 in last week's numbers I have ESPN's "Monday Night Football" which demonstrates that there are 15 million viewers who aren't watching the broadcast networks because football is on cable.

Lastly, I stuck in the 9:30 ratings because the 9:00 ratings get skewed with the "House" overrun. This demonstrates, much to my chagrin that "Lone Star" has a chance only if someone at Fox wants to subsidize it with "Glee" profits. If so, that someone will be fired by Rupert Murdoch. It would have been a good FX show, but what do I know?

Finally, it looks like the 2 million who didn't come back this week tuned in last Monday to watch "The Event" and said: "What was that all about?" But as someone in another thread reminded me, it's NBC so they more or less have to stick with it, at least until they get a 12 overweight people together to eat worms while leaping onto big rubber balls in a pool for $200 an episode while the new NBC President's brother-in-law videos them on his Handycam.


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## sorentodd45 (May 12, 2009)

The Event seems like a lock to get a full season. LoneStar however, well, it was nice knowing you.

Chase could go either way, but if the numbers don't pick up, it's likely a goner.


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## LarryFlowers (Sep 22, 2006)

NBC will probably be a little slow to pull the trigger on any of its 1 hour shows. They didn't exactly start the season in a strong position.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

LarryFlowers said:


> NBC will probably be a little slow to pull the trigger on any of its 1 hour shows. They didn't exactly start the season in a strong position.


That's certainly true. And at 10 pm they had Leno last year, so their affiliates are watching their every move as is Comcast.

ABC's "The Whole Truth" on Wednesday is in trouble, so I'll be curious to see what happens there.


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## RasputinAXP (Jan 23, 2008)

I'm just glad Castle is pulling in viewers. I love Nathan Fillion.


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## Galaxie6411 (Aug 26, 2007)

Roughly how many people do the USa/FX type shows get in viewers. I am thinking Burn Notice or SOA, just curious if it is 5 mill or 10 mill or 2 mill. I feel they are far better shows as a whole and they almost all get a good shot at a full run. Of course the cable networks have about 4x fewer shows so they can put more into them I guess but do they expect 4x the viewership?


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Galaxie6411 said:


> Roughly how many people do the USa/FX type shows get in viewers. I am thinking Burn Notice or SOA, just curious if it is 5 mill or 10 mill or 2 mill. I feel they are far better shows as a whole and they almost all get a good shot at a full run. Of course the cable networks have about 4x fewer shows so they can put more into them I guess but do they expect 4x the viewership?


Cable channels repeat the shows throughout the week creating more live viewership. So they have a different standard. And as "Mad Men" star Jon Hamm noted in a recent interview, cable shows operate on a smaller budget.

A great cable show rating has 8 million viewers (ignoring ESPN's Monday Night Football). A recent MediaPost article gives a feel for how that market works. But in terms of raw total numbers a MediaWeek article today gives statistics like:


> USA posted its best program delivery with the mid-season finale of Royal Pains, which drew 8.14 million viewers upon the addition of seven days of DVR viewing. (The day after the show's August 26 airdate, Nielsen live-plus-same-day data pegged Royal Pains' delivery at 6.08 million viewers. As such, time-shifted viewing raised the episode's overall audience by 34 percent.)
> 
> Per L+7 data, Pains lead-in Burn Notice scared up 8.09 million viewers in the 9 p.m. slot, up 29 percent from the LSD delivery (6.29 million). Also drawing fire was freshman entry Covert Affairs, which drew a season-high 5.87 million viewers on August 24. With the additional week of time-shifted viewing, that number grew 35 percent to 7.91 million viewers.
> 
> TNT maintained second place among all ad-supported cable nets, drawing 2.55 million total viewers in prime, an increase of 7 percent versus the year-ago period. The Turner net finished second among adults 25-54, averaging 1.1 million (down 1 percent), while dipping 3 percent in its delivery of viewers 18-49, averaging 937,000.


I hope this answers your questions as there is an "apples and oranges" element to how the broadcast networks and cable channel advertising markets work. However, the numbers are there, sort of.


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## dpeters11 (May 30, 2007)

TVbythenumbers.com is calling Outlaw a goner. They're not saying it's cancelled yet, but pretty much guaranteed to be a one season show at best. Not a new show, but they are also calling The Good Guys as cancelled.

Chuck isn't looking too good either.


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## Lee L (Aug 15, 2002)

Castle is doing well, but they revised its numbers down to 2.8 I think because MNF ran on the ABC affiliate in the Green Bay area so it skewed the early numbers.


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## Doug Brott (Jul 12, 2006)

dpeters11 said:


> Chuck isn't looking too good either.


Chuck isn't feeling right this season .. I'm not shocked to see this.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

I'm waiting for the full overnight ratings for last night, though the fast affiliate ratings are out. I thought I'd mention some of last week's prime time cable ratings for comparison when we can see what the broadcast networks did.

Last Tuesday:

"Sons of Anarchy" (FX) 1.8/5 3.48 million
"Teen Mom" (MTV) 1.9/5 3.35 million
"Warehouse 13" (Syfy) 0.8/2 2.45 million
When you realize that the cable channels do not have to share advertising revenue time with locals, you can begin to understand why The CW ratings (in the first post) cause many to wonder out loud why it just doesn't go cable and forget affiliates, why "Lonestar" had to be canceled, and why NBC's troubles are very real for NBCU management when they look at their cable channels USA, Syfy, and Bravo for comparison.

This morning NBCU management is also wondering why they didn't just tell their affiliates "butt out" on the Leno issue as last night's fast affiliate rating for the costly to produce "Parenthood" was 2.0/6 4.85 million while Leno on the comparable night was a very profitable 2.2/6 6.58 million. The lowest rating Leno got on a fall season Tuesday night last year was a 1.8/5 4.67 million and generally was at least a million viewers above that.


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## dpeters11 (May 30, 2007)

Doug Brott said:


> Chuck isn't feeling right this season .. I'm not shocked to see this.


It was hilarious to have Isaiah Mustafa, Old Spice Guy, as Greta, but of course that's a one episode thing. Overall, I see what you're saying.


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## sorentodd45 (May 12, 2009)

> This morning NBCU management is also wondering why they didn't just tell their affiliates "butt out" on the Leno issue as last night's fast affiliate rating for the costly to produce "Parenthood" was 2.0/6 4.85 million while Leno on the comparable night was a very profitable 2.2/6 6.58 million. The lowest rating Leno got on a fall season Tuesday night last year was a 1.8/5 4.67 million and generally was at least a million viewers above that.


I'll bet that Parenthood gets shipped off to Friday, once Outlaw gets canned. Tuesday is a high profile night and Parenthood is just sucking the life out of that time slot. It actually got decent numbers last season; but that was last season.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Tuesday results:








Not much here to talk about.

At 8 pm ABC's new show "No Ordinary Family" didn't do as well as last week's "Dancing with the Stars" but did ok.

At 9 pm "Dancing with the Stars" lost viewers apparently to "NCIS: LA".

At 10 pm NBC's "Parenthood" did lose ground. But what else are they going to do?


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## dpeters11 (May 30, 2007)

phrelin said:


> Tuesday results:
> 
> Not much here to talk about.
> 
> ...


With No Ordinary Family going up against Glee, not much of a surprise. I'll probably keep it, Tuesday is a really light night for me in terms of recordings.


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

I just cancelled Running Wilde from my series link and feel it will be another FOX casualty sooner rather then later


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

oldschoolecw said:


> I just cancelled Running Wilde from my series link


Me, too. Half way through the episode this week. Train wreck.


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## xmguy (Mar 27, 2008)

Is the CW not keeping viewers with what's left of Smallville. I still watch afterwards I could care less what happens to that network.


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## Galaxie6411 (Aug 26, 2007)

Thanks for the cable #'s that is what I was curious about. I figured those popular USA and FX shows had more live viewers but they do very well against the CW and it shows why Lonestar is canned with 3 mil. viewers.

I'm also frankly amazed at the Dancing with the Stars numbers, I am in the middle of that demo and could care less about it and don't know anyone else that cares, or maybe they are closet viewers. It always made me mad because it screwed my Lost timer up in previous years.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

xmguy said:


> Is the CW not keeping viewers with what's left of Smallville. I still watch afterwards I could care less what happens to that network.


Last week's rating was 1.3/5 2.9 million which was about the same as the typical ratings last fall. It should be enough to keep a season alive on The CW as it had higher ratings then "90210", "Gossip Girl", "One Tree Hill", "Life Unexpected", "America's Next Top Model", "Hellcats", and "Supernatural". Only "Vampire Diaries" and "Nikita" did any better.


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

Galaxie6411 said:


> Thanks for the cable #'s that is what I was curious about. I figured those popular USA and FX shows had more live viewers but they do very well against the CW and it shows why Lonestar is canned with 3 mil. viewers.
> 
> I'm also frankly amazed at the Dancing with the Stars numbers, I am in the middle of that demo and could care less about it and don't know anyone else that cares, or maybe they are closet viewers. It always made me mad because it screwed my Lost timer up in previous years.


I have never seen Dancing with the Stars either and like yourself could care less about it


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Just in case some of you, like me, are trying to decide whether to watch recordings of NBC's "Undercovers" or ABC's "The Whole Truth", the fast affiliate ratings are out.

"The Whole Truth" is in serious trouble.

This week compared to last week "Undercovers" lost of 19% of its viewers and 24 percent of the demo and its ratings were way under last year's _canceled_ "Mercy." Yes, it's NBC, but this is an expensive show to leave as the weak lead in to NBC's only powerhouse duo, the two "L&O's".

While I'll post the numbers on the final overnight later today, "Undercovers" and "The Whole Truth" will remain on my external hard drive as "iffy."


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## RunnerFL (Jan 5, 2006)

Lone Star has already been canceled.

http://thefutoncritic.com/showatch/lone-star/


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## photostudent (Nov 8, 2007)

I had high hopes for Undercovers and The Whole Truth but was disappointed in both. I guess I am not alone.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Ok, here's last night's results:








The first problem is that it's Wednesday and for some reason total viewer numbers are lower on Wednesday. That's something I don't understand.

As noted in an earlier post this morning, "Undercovers" did experience a pretty sizeable drop in audience, but it's still within margins. Because it's NBC I expect it to do a full season unless it loses another 1.5 million viewers.

At 10 pm, "The Whole Truth" has below standard numbers. If ABC cancels it, we'll likely see "20/20" appear here unless they've got something really, really great up their sleeve they want to waste on a max of 8 million viewers.


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## Supramom2000 (Jun 21, 2007)

The only reason I can think for Wednesday having less viewership might be because many, many churches have their bible study or Iwana or faith fellowship, or whatever you might call it - on that night. Almost every church in our area has full parking lots on Wednesday night. When I lived in the south, the Baptist churches all had some sort of religious night on Wednesdays.


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## sigma1914 (Sep 5, 2006)

Supramom2000 said:


> The only reason I can think for Wednesday having less viewership might be because many, many churches have their bible study or Iwana or faith fellowship, or whatever you might call it - on that night. Almost every church in our area has full parking lots on Wednesday night. When I lived in the south, the Baptist churches all had some sort of religious night on Wednesdays.


Excellent thoughts. I never considered that, but I bet it's why Wednesday never has big/popular shows...with exceptions like Survivor (this season) & Modern Family.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Supramom2000 said:


> The only reason I can think for Wednesday having less viewership might be because many, many churches have their bible study or Iwana or faith fellowship, or whatever you might call it - on that night. Almost every church in our area has full parking lots on Wednesday night. When I lived in the south, the Baptist churches all had some sort of religious night on Wednesdays.


Hmmm. Thanks for the input. I would never have thought of that. Guess what parking lots I don't pay any attention to. Boy am I unaware.:eek2:


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## hoophead (Feb 10, 2008)

Lee L said:


> Castle is doing well, but they revised its numbers down to 2.8 I think because MNF ran on the ABC affiliate in the Green Bay area so it skewed the early numbers.


Also, the affiliate in Milwaukee showed the game; Madison did not.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Here's Thursday:








ABC's "My Generation" a 8 pm is in trouble. "The Apprentice" which is cheap to produce still isn't performing satisfactorily.


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## Jaspear (May 16, 2004)

phrelin said:


> Here's Thursday:
> 
> ABC's "My Generation" a 8 pm is in trouble. "The Apprentice" which is cheap to produce still isn't performing satisfactorily.


How do the numbers for "Fringe" look compared to last season? They don't look good to me, but maybe this is nothing new.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Jaspear said:


> How do the numbers for "Fringe" look compared to last season? They don't look good to me, but maybe this is nothing new.


They aren't good numbers, but "Fringe" some weeks got numbers like that last fall. I'd guess this is the last season, at least I'd be writing in that direction. But then again, Fox has problems at 9 pm. So I don't know what they're going to do.


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## tsmacro (Apr 28, 2005)

RasputinAXP said:


> I'm just glad Castle is pulling in viewers. I love Nathan Fillion.


+1


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## tsmacro (Apr 28, 2005)

dpeters11 said:


> Chuck isn't looking too good either.


meh, I don't know if I'd worry too much about Chuck at this point. Those numbers are actually pretty typical for that show. It's on NBC first of all it's not like they have a bunch of bigger and better shows just waiting to replace it. Also it's up against some real tough competition. Chuck has a smallish audience but very loyal, plus it's gotten advertiser support in the past (Subway) and they've instituted cost-saving measures (does that mean the cast and crew agreed to work for less, not really sure here) so it runs pretty lean from what I hear for a scripted show. I think NBC would consider cutting quite a few other shows in it's roster before it gets to Chuck, unless of course it's ratings drop even more.


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## armophob (Nov 13, 2006)

Chase is a goner in my dvr. I tried 1 1/4 episodes. I already have "In Plain Sight". I do not need a remake so soon.


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## LarryFlowers (Sep 22, 2006)

As of 9PM this evening, "My Generation" is cancelled.


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## sigma1914 (Sep 5, 2006)

LarryFlowers said:


> As of 9PM this evening, "My Generation" is cancelled.


Damn, I have a good friend who's role starts in episode 4. :nono2:


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## BenJF3 (Sep 12, 2008)

I canned "The Event" already from my DVR. The time shifting killed it for me.

I thought Five-O was good and Chase is Ok, enough so that I'll leave it in.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Running a little late today, but here is Friday:








Nothing surprising here. Typical Friday. Ignoring The CW, CBS has the only ratings that justify the cost of producing a scripted show.

ABC's reruns and "20/20" probably generate enough revenue to keep the lights on, as does NBC's "Dateline NBC" and Fox's rerun of "House."

Fox's "The Good Guys" is dead, just not buried yet.

NBC's "Outlaw" is generating Primetime Leno revenue at twice or three times the cost providing the affiliates with that same worthless level of local news lead in. As a consolation for the affiliates, it's worth noting that "Outlaw" did produce a bigger audience than Thursday's "The Apprentice" which probably cost half to produce.

Now that ABC has canceled it's Thursday 8 pm "My Generation", one has to wonder what they are going to do with "The Whole Truth" on Wednesday at 10 pm.

To summarize the upside of NBC, of the M-F 15 hours of prime time, they do have 9½ hours of stuff that gets over 6 million viewers, counting the four hours of "The Biggest Loser" and "Dateline NBC." The downside is it doesn't look like they will have an hour where they'll average over 10 million for the season. Here's the NBC "winners" that attracted over 6 million viewers two weeks in a row:

Monday at 9 pm "The Event" and at 10 pm "Chase"
Tuesday 8-10 pm "The Biggest Loser"
Wednesday at 8 pm "Undercovers", at 9 pm "L&O:SVU" and at 10 pm "L&O:LA"
Thursday 9-9:30 pm "The Office"
Friday 8-10 pm "Dateline NBC"
Yes, Virginia there still is a "Chuck" but folks aren't watching it.


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## RunnerFL (Jan 5, 2006)

phrelin said:


> Fox's "The Good Guys" is dead, just not buried yet.


Maybe they'll move it back to being a summer series where it put up good enough numbers to earn it a second season this year.

It's one of only 3 cop shows I'm still watching. Prime time viewing is just over saturated with cop shows right now.


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## Holydoc (Feb 18, 2008)

phrelin said:


> Running a little late today, but here is Friday:
> 
> Now that ABC has canceled it's Thursday 8 pm "My Generation", one has to wonder what they are going to do with "The Whole Truth" on Wednesday at 10 pm.


Looks like "The Whole Truth" has been cancelled.

http://www.thefutoncritic.com/showatch.aspx?series=&network=&daycode=&statuscode=1&genre=&studio=


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