# HDTV by 2006 deadline a pipe dream



## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

According to estimates from industry experts at the recent Consumer Electronics Association HDTV Summit in Washington,, D.C. digital television must have a 85 percent market penetration for analog to cease.
Estimates from industry experts now say it may be 2009 to 2020 before this happens. 
Check out page 13 of Electronic House for the full story. My best friend just got a HDTV and after seeing this story is taking it back.


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## olgeezer (Dec 5, 2003)

Your friend was wise in purchasing an HDTV. That statement sounds like NAB propaganda.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

olgeezer said:


> Your friend was wise in purchasing an HDTV. That statement sounds like NAB propaganda.


I have HDTV but you should read the story on page 13 of the July 2004 issue. I am not saying it is fact or not. But it is something that should be looked at. CEA Chief Executive office Gary Shapioro said more like 2012.


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## James_F (Apr 23, 2002)

I think all that is required by 2006 is broadcast with digital signals right?

There is no requirement to have a HD signal, right?

Still I doubt 85% of sets will receive a digital signal by then.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

According to the story they must have 85 percent penetration for analog to cease.


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## James_F (Apr 23, 2002)

What is the current penetration?


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

olgeezer said:


> Your friend was wise in purchasing an HDTV. That statement sounds like NAB propaganda.


The story also said don't disregard Direct-view TVs with the big cathode ray tubes.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

Found the link
http://www.electronichouse.com/default.asp?NodeId=1983


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## Nick (Apr 23, 2002)

mainedish said:


> ...My best friend just got a HDTV and after seeing this story is taking it back.


Your friend is an idiot.....birds of a feather, perhaps???


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## Charles Oliva (Apr 22, 2002)

Actully the law concerning what constitues the 85% penetration has been interpeted, reinterpeted and re-reinterpeted. As the FCC now sees it, subscribers to any "digital" TV service(dbs and digital cable now included) count as part of the 85% threshold. Right now that would be 67% (51% digital cable, 14% dbs, 2% OTA) and the FCC now thinks 2009 as the most likely analog shut off.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

I for one love HDTV but they will not be ready to broadcast by the end of 2006. It just won't happen.


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## James_F (Apr 23, 2002)

mainedish said:


> I for one love HDTV but they will not be ready to broadcast by the end of 2006. It just won't happen.


Who isn't ready? We already have digital TV today.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

James_F said:


> Who isn't ready? We already have digital TV today.


The FCC has mandated that by May 2006 that all broadcasters broadcast DTV signals. Over The Air transmissions but not DTV through Cable or Satellite companies. HDTV takes up a lot of bandwidth and it is up to the Cable and Satellite companies to move from sending you regular Analog to true DTV signals. This also means that broadcasters can send DTV signals that are of lower resolution then that of true HDTV.


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## James_F (Apr 23, 2002)

Full HDTV broadcast? What are you talking about? There is nothing to force providers to have HDTV, just broadcast in digital. Its all about shutting off the analog signal, not about HDTV.

**NOTE** - mainedish edited his post after I wrote this. I'll remember to quote him so he can't change what he wrote again.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

James_F said:


> Full HDTV broadcast? What are you talking about? There is nothing to force providers to have HDTV, just broadcast in digital. Its all about shutting off the analog signal, not about HDTV.


The analog signal will not be shut off in 2006. Try 2010 at the very least.


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## Geronimo (Mar 23, 2002)

51% have DIGITAL cable? Cable maybe. Butt aht sounds like a rather loose interpretation of receivbing a digital signal.


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## James_F (Apr 23, 2002)

mainedish said:


> The analog signal will not be shut off in 2006. Try 2010 at least.


Right, but what does that have to do with HDTVs? You are confusing the issue. The transition from analog to digital does not mean there will be more HD signals.


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## mainedish (Mar 25, 2003)

James_F said:


> Right, but what does that have to do with HDTVs? You are confusing the issue. The transition from analog to digital does not mean there will be more HD signals.


I just posted a link to a story I am reading. I don't know what will happen. But I do believe the switch from analog to dtv will be much slower then what is being told to you at the local electronic store.


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## Charles Oliva (Apr 22, 2002)

Geronimo said:


> 51% have DIGITAL cable? Cable maybe. Butt aht sounds like a rather loose interpretation of receivbing a digital signal.


Yep. Overall cable penetration in the is US is 70%. 3 in 4 cable households have _at least one_ TV connected to digital cable, that's the key. As long as _one_ TV is connected to digital cable it counts toward the "digital" conversion. The belief is that if analog dissapears cable/dbs would pick up the digital signal and distribute that instead, thus "converting" all those households to digital.


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## olgeezer (Dec 5, 2003)

From a very conservitive source:
http://broadcastengineering.com/mag/broadcasting_push_dtv_conversion/


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## kb7oeb (Jun 16, 2004)

I think the problem is that the digital tuners are really expensive and no tuners are marketed for SD tv sets.

My Aunt was considering an OTA digital tuner for her console tv until she found out the cost. She lives California and channel 2 and 4 come in like crap for her. For some reason all the rest come in great.

I don't think digital tuners will take off until they are included in $100 to $300 range tv sets.

I heard from a guy that worked at a local TV station in Phoenix, he said that 60% of the viewers get the stations signal from cable or sat. The other 40% are OTA.


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