# Is time running out for Blu-Ray?



## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

Yeah I know, this subject has been beat to death already but I figure, why not. 

There have been some stories floating around the net this morning about how Blu-Ray's life clock is ticking very fast. I have always felt that Blu-Ray will never become a mainstream format. As a matter of fact, Blu-Ray will probably be a couple of ticks in the evolution of home entertainment. 

I foresee a move from DVD directly to digital downloads skipping Blu-Ray all together. The reason? As each month goes by, online content streamers are getting better at what they do. I was watching a movie via Netflix the other day in HD. It was blown up on a 106” projection screen. While it did not look or sound as good as Blu-Ray, it looked very good. If I had a choice between purchasing it on Blu-Ray for $20-$30 or picking up the remote and streaming it on demand in HD, I would seriously consider the latter…and I am what you would consider a “home theater nut”. You can pretty much figure what the average Joe will do with a remote and a 42” LCD. They probably would not be able to tell the difference between Blu-Ray and a HD download. It’s simply getting way too easy to view HD online content. Even the satellite companies are jumping in with 1080P downloads. 

I’m really not trying to blow smoke at the Blu-Ray chearleaders. I own a PS3 myself with 50 or so Blu-Ray movies, but I think I can accurately predict that Blu-Ray will be like the laserdisc. It will be around for a while and audio/videophiles will build their collections but lets face it, the writing is already on the wall. It’s a transitional format that won’t be around to see 2015. As online content gets better and more people get fast internet connections, hard media will be a thing of the past. When sitting down to watch a movie in the evening, more and more I find myself checking my Netflix box and Apple TV before looking at my DVD collection. Granted, online downloads do not offer attractive titles (although Apple is getting some good stuff on Apple TV), it’s only a matter of time before that changes.

The bright spot is that at least our Blu-Ray collections won’t deteriorate. They will still look fantastic years from now assuming you can still find a player to play them.


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## space86 (May 4, 2007)

Online is the future that is a good thing.


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## roadrunner1782 (Sep 28, 2008)

I personally like physical media myself, but that's just me! Although with my ipod, cd's have quickly become a thing of the past for me. I still worry about the ipod crashing (not that I've heard of one doing so) and I lose everything with the exception of the cd's I have that were transferred to the ipod! Either way I still like going to a store and purchasing an actual blu-ray to bring home and watch! I just wish they would lower the prices of them, $30 for a movie is just insane!!:nono2:


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## houskamp (Sep 14, 2006)

I like to own my media.. preferably on hard media.. I'd hate to have my movie collection wiped out by a drive failure..
That said, I still don't own a booray.. And I expect sony to kill it with bad pricing/buisness practices...


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## RAD (Aug 5, 2002)

If the ISP's get their way and implement download caps and extra charges when you exceed that amount that would put a big crimp in downloads.

IMHO I see BD and downloads coexisting, BD isn't going away. There are too many places where high speed internet connects aren't available yet or if they are aren't fast enough to make downloading of HD content 'user friendly' since it would take too long.


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## Mike Bertelson (Jan 24, 2007)

houskamp said:


> I like to own my media.. preferably on hard media.. I'd hate to have my movie collection wiped out by a drive failure..
> That said, I still don't own a booray.. And I expect sony to kill it with bad pricing/buisness practices...


I agree 100%. I like have the disc.



RAD said:


> If the ISP's get their way and implement download caps and extra charges when you exceed that amount that would put a big crimp in downloads.
> 
> IMHO I see BD and downloads coexisting, BD isn't going away. There are too many places where high speed internet connects aren't available yet or if they are aren't fast enough to make downloading of HD content 'user friendly' since it would take too long.


I think this will be a big deal.

Internet caps will continue to become more common. I see this severly limiting the amount of movies someone can download.

I think the method/infrastructure for delivering broadband needs updating before delivering movies over the net becomes mainstream.

IMHO...:grin:

Mike


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## tcusta00 (Dec 31, 2007)

MicroBeta said:


> Internet caps will continue to become more common. I see this severly limiting the amount of movies someone can download.
> 
> I think the method/infrastructure for delivering broadband needs updating before delivering movies over the net becomes mainstream.
> 
> ...


Yes I think this will be the saving grace for BR. Conspiracy theory: Sony buys a bunch of ISPs and slaps caps on all of them to boost Blu Ray player sales. :eek2: :lol:


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## Koz (Sep 16, 2006)

As long as there are people who keep money under their mattress because they don't trust banks, there will be a need for physical media.


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## Cholly (Mar 22, 2004)

I have a Blu-ray rental subscription with Netflix. Currently a singld disk at a time rental, so only $8.95 a month. Better than streaming video, but the downside is that Netflix catalog is kinda sparse.


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## phat78boy (Sep 12, 2007)

I agree, hard media is nearing the end of its lifecycle. There will be always be a niche for it, but its mainstream adoption is on the down side. 

As for the concerns with a HDD failure or virus, since when did people stop backing up their files? If you are properly backed up, digital is much safer then having a hard copy.


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## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

phat78boy said:


> As for the concerns with a HDD failure or virus, since when did people stop backing up their files? If you are properly backed up, digital is much safer then having a hard copy.


This is something I was going to mention earlier. What do people consider "hard media"? A hard drive is hard media is it not? I find it much easier to make a backup of a hard drive than a DVD.


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## HDJulie (Aug 10, 2008)

I would think that digital media (drives) is more susceptible to failure than hard media. I know this from personal experience with hurricane Katrina. We lost everything to 18 feet of salt water but were able to recover some of our data that we had backed up to DVD's. Obviously, our hard drives were damaged beyond any readability. While flooding is not common, the same could happen in a fire, tornado, or from something as simple as electrical surge to the components. 

I've started thinking about using an online backup system but our crappy satellite access prohibits that.


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## houskamp (Sep 14, 2006)

I expect that as soon as they get downloaded stuff realy running you will see the same kind of restrictions that PPV has today..
One of my major reasons for straight hard media is I own it forever.. 

If/when hard media dies you can expect to never own it again.. you will only be able to rent it


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## txtommy (Dec 30, 2006)

Until everyone has high speed internet access there will always be a need for DVD or Blu-ray or similar format. We have satellite internet and the Fair Access Policy prevents us from downloading movies or tv shows. The only other thing available would be dial-up and that would make for a slow movie.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

I'm not sure what any such speculaton would come from, as just last week, Blu Ray disk sales hit an all-time high of 16.8% of marketshare, and has been steadily growing now for months.

In addition, some of the newer titles have sold record numbers, including Dart Knight, which not only sold over 2 Million copies in Blu Ray the first 2 weeks, but also captured 36% of the marketshare (compared with standard DVDs).

Every major studio now issues most of their new releases in Blu Ray, as well as standard DVD format.

Add in that all of the major manufactures at the CES had new devices scheduled for release throughout 2009, and the library of Blu Ray movies available in 2009 is expected to go over 700, and it certainly looks more like its picking up steam, rather than dwindling.

I'm bullish (and I was not a Blu Ray fan a year ago, by the way).


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

A lot if this hinges on if ISP's start implementing hard caps on monthly bandwidth utilization, with the easy availability of almost limitless high speed internet right now there is no reason to spend $30 on a movie.

However if prices come down on Blu-Ray discs, I can see them becoming more mainstream, also if bandwidth becomes more expensive to come by then the online services are going to become a lot less attractive.

For instance I downloaded The Dark Knight the other night to play on my X-Box, in HD the movie was over 6gb. I have seen proposed bandwidth caps from 5 - 40gb a month, so optimistically that 1 movie just used more than 15% of my allotment for the entire month.

Now the movie debate aside, I think Blu-Ray will stick around as a data storage format, as once media is more affordable, to me thats as simple as the transition from CD to DVD, optical storage is reliable for long term permanent backups and being able to fit more on a disc is a no brainer decision.


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## bleedgreenandgold (Jan 5, 2009)

Did anyone notice Vizio announced a blu-ray play at CES 2009? It will go for about 199. This price makes me finally want to switch over. Hopefully blu-ray dvd prices will drop!


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## Ron Barry (Dec 10, 2002)

Chris Blount said:


> It's simply getting way too easy to view HD online content. Even the satellite companies are jumping in with 1080P downloads.
> 
> But I think I can accurately predict that Blu-Ray will be like the laserdisc. It will be around for a while and audio/videophiles will build their collections but lets face it, the writing is already on the wall. It's a transitional format that won't be around to see 2015. As online content gets better and more people get fast internet connections, hard media will be a thing of the past. When sitting down to watch a movie in the evening, more and more I find myself checking my Netflix box and Apple TV before looking at my DVD collection. Granted, online downloads do not offer attractive titles (although Apple is getting some good stuff on Apple TV), it's only a matter of time before that changes.
> 
> The bright spot is that at least our Blu-Ray collections won't deteriorate. They will still look fantastic years from now assuming you can still find a player to play them.


First off, Blu-Ray is no where near LaserDisc. I had LaserDisc for a number of years and its main issue beside size was availability. Blue Ray at this point does not have this problem

As for ease of downloading HD material online, I am a computer nut and sorry to say that I have not even jumped into that form of content delivery. I listen to a lot of podcasts and the twitter generation definitely feels this is they way things are going. Just listen to Buzz out load and that is all you hear about. That and how much Google and Mac suck.

I do believe that people will be buying less and renting more. I switched over about a year back of renting instead of buying DVDs. Reason was simple. I don't watch movies multiple times to justify the cost of a DVD over a monthly rental. When Netflix and BlockBuster made DVD deliver and Blue-Ray deliver easy I went to the mode of buy less rent more and I think that is one big reason why both DVD and Blu-Ray Sales were down last I checked.

Online definitely has the same appeal as the rental method I use, but with two fall negative. Picture Quality and choice. I am sure over time the choice issue will be fixed which leaves the PQ question. I am sure a lot of people will think they look the same and that is cool so I don't think PQ difference will gate the move. However, Peoples habits will and right now most people rent and find it very comfortable.

I will continue to see this trend happen. I would expect both Online and Rentals to continue to be strong and I think both formats will be around for a while. Blu-Ray is just starting to gets its steam and my guess is it has a decent amount of life in it depending if they can get Media and player cost down.

I don't see online taking over for a while, but I do see it growing. Physical media is not dead or even dying from what I can see.


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

HDJulie said:


> I would think that digital media (drives) is more susceptible to failure than hard media. I know this from personal experience with hurricane Katrina. We lost everything to 18 feet of salt water but were able to recover some of our data that we had backed up to DVD's. Obviously, our hard drives were damaged beyond any readability. While flooding is not common, the same could happen in a fire, tornado, or from something as simple as electrical surge to the components.
> 
> I've started thinking about using an online backup system but our crappy satellite access prohibits that.


Take a look at http://www.iosafe.com. $150 for a 500GB fire and waterproof hard drive.


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

bleedgreenandgold said:


> Did anyone notice Vizio announced a blu-ray play at CES 2009? It will go for about 199. This price makes me finally want to switch over. Hopefully blu-ray dvd prices will drop!


You should be able to get a BD player under $199 right now. Costco had one for $170 during Christmas (Funai or similar brand). I bought a Panasonic BD-35 (a top rated model with BD-Live) at HH Gregg for $199. I figure prices will continue to drop as new models are introduced. I'll bet we see sub $100 players by Christmas 2009.


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## HDJulie (Aug 10, 2008)

> Take a look at http://www.iosafe.com. $150 for a 500GB fire and waterproof hard drive.


That's an interesting & affordable option. I wonder what the lifespan of a drive like that would be. 5 years, 10 years?


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## txtommy (Dec 30, 2006)

mmccaugh said:


> A lot if this hinges on if ISP's start implementing hard caps on monthly bandwidth utilization, *with the easy availability of almost limitless high speed internet right now* there is no reason to spend $30 on a movie.


There are far too many regions of this country where real 'high speed internet' is still several years into the future. With our so called 'high speed internet' service from Hughesnet we are allowed a maximum of 425MB download per day. To download the 6 GB movie you referenced would take two weeks on our service assuming we did nothing else; not very practical. :nono2:


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

txtommy said:


> There are far too many regions of this country where real 'high speed internet' is still several years into the future. With our so called 'high speed internet' service from Hughesnet we are allowed a maximum of 425MB download per day.


Yup...even the manufacturer reps at the CES stated to me that downloadable HD media to the mass market was 3-5 years away.


rudeney said:


> You should be able to get a BD player under $199 right now. Costco had one for $170 during Christmas (Funai or similar brand). I bought a Panasonic BD-35 (a top rated model with BD-Live) at HH Gregg for $199. I figure prices will continue to drop as new models are introduced. I'll bet we see sub $100 players by Christmas 2009.


Yup...they're on sale all the time in the $150-$199 range....

Even the latest/new models will be MSRP-priced at $299-$399, with street prices perhaps $50-$75 less for the latest & greatest.

Over the past month...BD disks have also started to drop...and by mid-year, are forecast to be averaging in the $14 - $19 area.....

Add in the hundreds of thousands of players that were sold over the holiday season, hundreds of new titles coming out...and I'd be inclined to doubt the naysayers...


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Chris Blount said:


> I foresee a move from DVD directly to digital downloads skipping Blu-Ray all together.


I foresee apes one day becoming our masters...

I expect my prediction has a better chance of coming true than yours... though that could all change if the dolphins rise up against us and solidify their power before the apes have a chance to! 

I know people who aren't on the cutting edge of technology, who either already have a Blu-ray player, or are planning on getting a player later this year.

I don't know a single person who uses digital downloads for movies, and whenever I have brought up "digital downloads", most everybody I know think that's stupid... and have said they will simply stop buying movies once that becomes their only choice. Quite frankly, I agree with them. I have zero interest in "digital downloads"... and should the Blu-ray format perish (extremely doubtful), I'll go back to DVDs before I go to "digital downloads", and should "digital downloads" become the only way to get movies, I'll simply stop buying them and subscribe to the premium channels on DirecTV.

As a fan of technology, I appreciate the idea of "digital downloads", and I do feel it will probably put a HUGE dent in the rental business a few years from now, but I SERIOUSLY don't see pre-recorded physical media being replaced by "digital downloads" for at least another 8-10 years.

~Alan


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> Yup...they're on sale all the time in the $150-$199 range....
> 
> Even the latest/new models will be MSRP-priced at $299-$399, with street prices perhaps $50-$75 less for the latest & greatest.


Yeah, I purchased a Sony BDP-S350 for relatives for Christmas this past year for $149 (I found out later I could have gotten it cheaper)... and with MSRPs dropping on new players being introduced, I'd expect Sony, Panasonic, and Samsung players on sale for $99 this coming "Black Friday", and possibly some of the "cheap" brand players for less.

~Alan


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## Jason Nipp (Jun 10, 2004)

space86 said:


> Online is the future that is a good thing.


 Sure....If your local area has the infrastructure and bandwidth to support it.

I do not have access in my area to better than 3M/768k in my area, and couldn't afford more if they did offer it.

What happens when your hard disk crashes, Is DRM going to make the download expire? What if I want to watch a movie at a friends house, or on a plane?

I am a hard media format supporter. When I buy something, I don't want to think of my purchase as vaporware. Also, if the movies don't expire, now you have to constantly add storage capacity to your PC.


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## Jason Nipp (Jun 10, 2004)

mmccaugh said:


> A lot if this hinges on if ISP's start implementing hard caps on monthly bandwidth utilization.


I was under the impression that Comcast has already done this?

Either way infrastructure, bandwidth, and cost of bandwidth are going to decide the future of downloads.... IMHO.


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## HDJulie (Aug 10, 2008)

Jason Nipp said:


> ... I do not have access in my area to better than 3M/768k in my area, and couldn't afford more if they did offer it.


I'd kill for 3M access. We're on Hughesnet & every blue moon get 1M. The other 99% of the time it is less than 500k.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

*Thoughts:*
The pie is bigger. So online viewing will have some marketshare of a larger pie. Not take away from BD.

Chris, how do you take your hard drive to the RV or van so the kids can watch? I can do that with DVD today, BD later this year.

What does one backup 1TB of movies to? 50 BDs is somewhere around 1.25TB. What do I when I hit 300BDs as I have with DVDs?  Hard disks fail, potentially losing many $$ of "purchases".

How do you take movies to a friend's house to have movie party where everyone brings a movie or two?

*Thoughts that others have stated, that I think are spot on:*
Many people want to own the media. XstreamHD at least has a model where you own the copy. But many want it in hand.

$50/month for internet, plus $10-20 for downloading services is more than $1/night at redbox...

All in all, yes BD's clock is ticking. But not in that it will only reach 2% like LD. Already well beyond that in every measure.

Much more like VHS's clock was ticking from day one, as was DVD's. Every technology's clock ticks.

(BTW, LD "lived" longer than VHS or DVD. but never reached more than 2%. So did it ever live? Interesting conundrum.)

Cheers,
Tom


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Jason Nipp said:


> I was under the impression that Comcast has already done this?
> 
> Either way infrastructure, bandwidth, and cost of bandwidth are going to decide the future of downloads.... IMHO.


Yes, Comcast has officially described they have caps (as opposed to just shutting people off with minimal statements). But still are rather fuzzy on what those caps are.


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## LarryFlowers (Sep 22, 2006)

When I finally decided to buy a Blu Ray player, I did it with the idea that I expected no more than 4 years out of it, anythin over that would be a plus. I also bought one that had Netflix Streaming built in (Samsung BDP2500) so I could always use it for that...

The handwriting is there... streaming will be it.

Larry


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Alan Gordon said:


> I foresee apes one day becoming our masters...
> 
> I expect my prediction has a better chance of coming true than yours...


I'm not entirely sure it hasn't already happened...


Alan Gordon said:


> Yeah, I purchased a Sony BDP-S350 for relatives for Christmas this past year for $149 (I found out later I could have gotten it cheaper)... and with MSRPs dropping on new players being introduced, I'd expect Sony, Panasonic, and Samsung players on sale for $99 this coming "Black Friday", and possibly some of the "cheap" brand players for less.
> 
> ~Alan


I suspect the range of most Blu Ray players by 4Q 2009 will be in the $149 - $199 range, with a handfull even cheaper.

As for BD movies....if the 8-9 sites I regularly visit on the topic are accurate...the range of most BD movies will be in the $14 - $17 range by year end, making them only about $3 - $5 more than standard DVD's.

Anyone who's seen Blu Ray movies knows they are more than worth that kind on nominal price difference.

As for streaming (mainstream market)....based on the latest numbers on Broadband use in the U.S., not to mention the corresponding technology going mainstream to market to support it....I'd guess we're looking at another 3-4 years to be the "commonplace" offering...


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Tom Robertson said:


> *Thoughts:*
> 
> Chris, how do you take your hard drive to the RV or van so the kids can watch? I can do that with DVD today, BD later this year.
> 
> ...


I agree with everything Tom said, but I did want to comment on the above.

It has been said the studios are working on a plan for the above. Two of the issues you mentioned above involve flash media... I'd go into more detail, but I REALLY do not want to get any details wrong. I might try later to find the link.

Also, I'm already over 300 BDs, and while I'm aware that hard drives (and flash media) will get larger, that's still a considerable amount of storage I would need to store my collection as it is now, much less in the future. As for the backing up, the studios are working on that now as well. Basically it involves purchasing the download on your account, with the ability to download it again for free should you lose your download.

~Alan


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## Jason Nipp (Jun 10, 2004)

Alan Gordon said:


> I'm already over 300 BDs


 That's like 10 grand worth of discs.... dude, how about hooking a brother up?



Alan Gordon said:


> As for the backing up, the studios are working on that now as well. Basically it involves purchasing the download on your account, with the ability to download it again for free should you lose your download.


So when your HDD fails your going to take the time to download 8 terabytes of movies again? What if your ISP has capped your account? What if your on a low bandwidth connection?

Not all of us live in areas that have the infrastructure in place to support that.... and some of us couldn't afford it if we did.


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## Jason Nipp (Jun 10, 2004)

Also, when I want to watch a movie, I want to watch it. I have tried the download thing, it takes like 3-5 hours for an HD movie,... sometimes longer..... and then it sometimes fails in the process.... then you have to start all over again....

Sorry not for me...


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> As for BD movies....if the 8-9 sites I regularly visit on the topic are accurate...the range of most BD movies will be in the $14 - $17 range by year end, making them only about $3 - $5 more than standard DVD's.
> 
> Anyone who's seen Blu Ray movies knows they are more than worth that kind on nominal price difference.


Last year, I was told that the prices would settle around $19 for new releases, $14 for catalog once Blu-ray started getting more market share (which is getting better every day). This year, I was told that multiple studios would be lowering their prices on catalog releases.

I always keep in mind that my first new release DVD from 20th Century Fox (around 10 years ago) had an MSRP of $34.95 which is only $5 cheaper than what Fox currently charges MSRP for new release Blu-ray releases.

~Alan


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

My first LD was _Hunt for Red October_ because it was only $30 and the VHS was $80-ish.


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## houskamp (Sep 14, 2006)

anyone remember a few years ago when Microsoft was going to rent major apps? They were gonna be online apps with a yearly fee.. 
People like to actualy OWN stuff..


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Jason Nipp said:


> That's like 10 grand worth of discs.... dude, how about hooking a brother up?


A lot of those discs were purchased for less than $10... some as low as $6.99... spread out over several years. Trust me, financially speaking, if you couldn't hook me up, I'd feel sorry for you! 



Jason Nipp said:


> So when your HDD fails your going to take the time to download 8 terabytes of movies again? What if your ISP has capped your account? What if your on a low bandwidth connection?
> 
> Not all of us live in areas that have the infrastructure in place to support that.... and some of us couldn't afford it if we did.


I'm EXTREMELY lucky that even though I live out in the boonies (outside of a small city), I'm still lucky enough to get DSL... which was upgraded to 6mbps this past year... and I know multiple people who can't even get DSL at all.... so I feel your pain.

That being said, I have VERY little interest in DirecTV-On-Demand due to the speed of downloading HD, and I have VERY little interest in "digital downloads" for that, some of the reasons mentioned in this thread, as well as others. "Digital downloads" are not for me!

~Alan


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Tom Robertson said:


> My first LD was _Hunt for Red October_ because it was only $30 and the VHS was $80-ish.


And it's now less than $20 on Blu-ray, and will soon be on available in a combo pack with "Clear And Present Danger" for $20 at Wal-Mart come March.

I already own "The Hunt For Red October" (one of my favorites movies) on Blu-ray, so I can't take advantage of the combo pack and pick up CAPD that cheap, but oh well...

~Alan


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Alan Gordon said:


> And it's now less than $20 on Blu-ray, and will soon be on available in a combo pack with "Clear And Present Danger" for $20 at Wal-Mart come March.
> 
> I already own "The Hunt For Red October" (one of my favorites movies) on Blu-ray, so I can't take advantage of the combo pack and pick up CAPD that cheap, but oh well...
> 
> ~Alan


Ouch! Now I have a tough decision. Wait for the two pack or get Hunt now...


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Tom Robertson said:


> Ouch! Now I have a tough decision. Wait for the two pack or get Hunt now...


Love the film, love the Blu-ray, but I'd probably wait myself. The following combo packs should be available on March 17th:

Clear & Present Danger/The Hunt For Red October
Hustle & Flow/Black Snake Moan
Mission: Impossible/M:I-2
Love Guru/Blades Of Glory
Sahara/Failure To Launch
Sweeney Todd/Sleepy Hollow
Top Gun/Days Of Thunder

The above ones marked red should be available at Wal-Mart for $19.95 (similar to some of the recently released two-packs). The others should be available for less than $30 (similar to some of the recently released two-packs).

~Alan


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## BattleZone (Nov 13, 2007)

Most people I know have "standard" 1.5 Mb/s internet service. In my area, I have to pay $80/month to get 8Mb down/768k up from Comcast. Less than 1% of Comcast's subscribers are on this tier; over 80% are on the basic 2 Mb/s tier.

Plus, most folks want to be able to easily transport movies around their house and to their friends' houses. The average person wouldn't know what to do with a DVD image, much less an MPEG4 HD file to get it portable.

No, despite the naysayers, Blu-Ray is doing great, even in an awful economy, and getting better all the time. Most folks have heard of Blu-Ray and lots of non-techie people already own them. Blu-Ray adoption is actually happening faster than DVD was adopted, which is a good indicator of its success.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Like many others, I like physical media. I wouldn't be surprised, though, if flashmemory replaced Blu ray at some point as the cost of manufacturing those comes down.

What I don't like is the very temporary nature of downloads. Yes, I have an external drive on my Dish receiver to save stuff... but I'm only saving stuff that I'm otherwise not going to have because I already subscribe to the channels I want. I wouldn't pay for a PPV just to save it even for movies I could keep that way (limits don't usually allow it for PPV these days). So if I lose my archive drive, I didn't lose anything that I spent buckets of money.

If I buy a $25 Blu ray, then as long as I don't frisbee with it or microwave/melt it, I know it will be there whenever I want to watch. I don't have the same security with a downloaded movie.

I feel the same about books. Some books I like online search capability... but for reading books I much prefer hardcopy in my hand to flip the pages.

Others have already mention the lack of bandwidth for most customers to download stuff all the time.. then the costs... then ISPs moving to implement caps to cost even more to download... I think this will really nip itself in the bud because it will eventually not be cheaper than the cost of physical media and customers will balk at having to re-buy the same thing over and over.


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## Jason Nipp (Jun 10, 2004)

HDMe said:


> I think this will really nip itself in the bud...


Hey now.... watch your use of nipps.....  :grin:


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## Hutchinshouse (Sep 28, 2006)

Blu-ray is not going anywhere anytime soon. Blu-ray disc sales have tripled in the past year. I say that is great based upon our cheesy economy. Look for behemoth numbers in 2009. Blu-ray for me.


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## vbedford (Jul 25, 2008)

I agree but as far as physically buying the format blue ray will stay for at least 10 years. But downloads are gonna be the note.:grin:


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## jdoug (Aug 16, 2006)

I use both blu-ray and Netflix streaming. Of course I much prefer blu-ray but Netflix streaming is great for what it is. It will be years before most areas have the infrastructure to support the bandwidth (at reasonable cost) required for download/streaming to match blu-ray picture/sound quality. But, I question whether the average consumer cares about that. However, with declining prices blu-ray will probably do fine and be around for quite a while.


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## Mark Holtz (Mar 23, 2002)

Chris Blount said:


> As online content gets better and more people get fast internet connections, hard media will be a thing of the past.


I see a few problems with your assumptions:
The network infrastructure will need to be upgraded to faster speeds. There are still areas of this country where the only high-speed internet is satellite, while other areas have a top speed of 1.5 Mbps. Not ideal for downloading GB of content.
The Internet Providers are implementing caps and limits of usage to control the bandwidth costs. Yes, this is instead of actual spending the money to increase the capacity.
Some people get their Internet through the cable company, and downloadable movies competes with their product. Whats to stop them from packet shaping the content to/from the movie servers so as to not affect their regular service?
There is also the portable device issue. Will you be allowed to transfer the content to a portable device to watch while traveling?
While I like the idea of digital downloads, I can see how it can be stopped in it's tracks.


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## smiddy (Apr 5, 2006)

Like many folks here, I need to have the hard media. I can see the usefulness of streaming video/audio. But I equate it to books. You can purchase any book you want via online, but most folks would prefer a hard bound book to be a part of their library. What is interesting is, even online college course require people to purchase books, not an online facsimile that can be stored on a hard drive. I think it is akin to that type of thing. My library will be a hard copy. I may stream a video to watch it, but if I like it, I will purchase a hard copy.


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## spartanstew (Nov 16, 2005)

Chris Blount said:


> If I had a choice between purchasing it on Blu-Ray for $20-$30 or picking up the remote and streaming it on demand in HD, I would seriously consider the latter&#8230;


Two flaws in your statement:

1. You don't need to spend $20 - $30 per Blu Ray. Deals are out there and available if you look. I'm averaging just under $15 per movie for my 30 Blu Ray's.
2. You can't compare PURCHASING a Blu-Ray to streaming On Demand for one viewing. If you want to compare streaming to Blu Ray, then what would you rather do: Rent a Blu Ray for $1.00 (Netflix, Red Box) or stream on demand for $5.00?



bleedgreenandgold said:


> Did anyone notice Vizio announced a blu-ray play at CES 2009? It will go for about 199. This price makes me finally want to switch over. Hopefully blu-ray dvd prices will drop!





rudeney said:


> You should be able to get a BD player under $199 right now. Costco had one for $170 during Christmas (Funai or similar brand). I bought a Panasonic BD-35 (a top rated model with BD-Live) at HH Gregg for $199. I figure prices will continue to drop as new models are introduced. I'll bet we see sub $100 players by Christmas 2009.


I don't think his point was that you'll finally be able to get a Blu Ray for under $200 (Heck, I got my Panny BD35 for $139), but that there will finally be players with an MSRP of under $200, which means we should routinely see players for under $150 and occasionally closer to $100.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Jason Nipp said:


> Hey now.... watch your use of nipps.....  :grin:


At least I wasn't using past-tense (nipped)!


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

smiddy said:


> You can purchase any book you want via online, but most folks would prefer a hard bound book to be a part of their library. What is interesting is, even online college course require people to purchase books, not an online facsimile that can be stored on a hard drive. I think it is akin to that type of thing. My library will be a hard copy. I may stream a video to watch it, but if I like it, I will purchase a hard copy.


That's worth a thought too... Lots of people have libraries of books as a status symbol. I see people starting to talk about that with their DVD/Blu ray in the same way.

It'd be harder to brag about a large digital media collection that just looks like a hard drive or two sitting on a shelf.


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## phat78boy (Sep 12, 2007)

I personally am completely happy owning something digitally, much like purchasing non-DRM music online. I don't have to have the physical media and backing up my data is much better IMHO then having an actual "disk". If there was a fire that ripped through my house, I could be watching my movies or viewing my photos that night through my online backup source(assuming I had internet). 

As for bringing movies in the car or to the friends, that is exactly where I believe hard media has a place.... as well as longterm archives. In fact, I do this now all the time and can easily select a movie from my home server and burn it to a RW disc in no time. For HD material its not quite as practical, but in a year or two I'm pretty sure it will be.


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## apexmi (Jul 8, 2006)

Chris Blount said:


> Yeah I know, this subject has been beat to death already but I figure, why not.
> 
> There have been some stories floating around the net this morning about how Blu-Ray's life clock is ticking very fast. I have always felt that Blu-Ray will never become a mainstream format. As a matter of fact, Blu-Ray will probably be a couple of ticks in the evolution of home entertainment.
> 
> ...


I mostly have to agree Chris, the only wrench I see being thrown into the HD download arena is the ISP's starting with the bandwidth cap crap. That could kill HD downloads if it really take hold (or make it expensive if bandwidth eventually get to a metered model.. like Elec. Gas or Water bills)


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## paulman182 (Aug 4, 2006)

The statistic I have seen from June 2007 on broadband penetration in the U.S. is 21.9%.
http://www.internetworldstats.com/dsl.htm. And how many of these customers have usage or speed limitations?

Even digital music downloading, which has a big head start on HD video downloading and is much easier on bandwidth, has not taken over from physical media, although it has put a big dent in CD sales.


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## HersheyBud (Dec 18, 2006)

Interesting thread...There are bound to be big advancements and changes in high speed broadband, availability, ISP bandwidth limits, (or lack of them), safe - large storage media with many options, etc. in the near future. Until we start to see some changes, I think Blu-Ray is on pretty solid ground. My collection is now up to 14, (though I've yet to display them on my walls like Olympic Gold Medals). My neighbor still proudly displays his 412 cassettes on large racks surrounding his TV. My boss's wife still has over 100 VHS tapes of Soap Operas. They both have computers w/broadband, DirecTV, and are somewhat "normal" people.  Many folks on this forum are on the "cutting edge" of new and exciting technologies, but I think most folks still like looking, holding and grasping the actual hard copy of their beloved movies, music and other media. Me? Until I see anything close to the quality of a Blu-Ray with the ease of portability loaning it to friends, and the security of having that hard copy in the event my computer goes kurplunk, I'll keep buying them...


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Hutchinshouse said:


> Blu-ray is not going anywhere anytime soon. Blu-ray disc sales have tripled in the past year. I say that is great based upon our cheesy economy. Look for behemoth numbers in 2009. Blu-ray for me.





vbedford said:


> I agree but as far as physically buying the format blue ray will stay for at least 10 years. But downloads are gonna be the note.:grin:





smiddy said:


> Like many folks here, I need to have the hard media. I can see the usefulness of streaming video/audio. But I equate it to books. You can purchase any book you want via online, but most folks would prefer a hard bound book to be a part of their library. What is interesting is, even online college course require people to purchase books, not an online facsimile that can be stored on a hard drive. I think it is akin to that type of thing. My library will be a hard copy. I may stream a video to watch it, but if I like it, I will purchase a hard copy.


Seems many of us are on the same page...

I also still believe that until the Internet *mainstream* bandwidth gets up to 10Mbps or higher, download will remain in "hunt and peck experimental" mode. Right now, mainstream is 1.5Mbps, so there's a way to go....reduced Internet broadband service pricing will have an impact to greater adoption of the faster speeds, and in turn, use of downloadable media.

Like Smiddy - I'm one of those fellows who actually watches movies more than once, so fixed media is the solution. I have some BD movies that I've watched (sometimes with various co-audiences) 10 times.

In the mean time, Blu Ray is not only alive and well, but exponentially growing in adoption. Once people see the High Def media on their High Def displays/screens....they're hooked.


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## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

I can understand some of the arguments here about hard media. Believe it or not, I agree. I am also a fan of hard media. I think it's important to understand, however, that most of us here are from an older generation. We cherish our hard media.

BUT - The answer lies in the younger generation. Take a look at your kids (for those who have them). My kids are 23 and 21. Both of them NEVER purchase CD's. Most of their music is obtained through iTunes and places on their iPods. Neither have a CD player in their car. Just an iPod and a FM transmitter.

Both never buy DVD's. They either watch them on satellite or through netflix. My son has a collection of DVD's only because he inherits my old DVD's when I replace them with Blu-Rays.

All I'm saying is that Blu-Ray has some years left but not as many as some of you think. There's going to be a huge paradigm shift once the the 20 somethings start earning more money.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Chris Blount said:


> All I'm saying is that Blu-Ray has some years left but not as many as some of you think. There's going to be a huge paradigm shift once the the 20 somethings start earning more money.


True...but that means BD has at least 10 years left....:lol:

I still believe the primary driving force to downloadable media adoption is broadband service pricing, not devices themselves.


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## spartanstew (Nov 16, 2005)

Chris Blount said:


> There's going to be a huge paradigm shift once the the 20 somethings start earning more money.


Thankfully with this economy, that may never happen.


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## Mike Bertelson (Jan 24, 2007)

phat78boy said:


> I agree, hard media is nearing the end of its lifecycle. There will be always be a niche for it, but its mainstream adoption is on the down side.
> 
> As for the concerns with a HDD failure or virus, since when did people stop backing up their files? If you are properly backed up, digital is much safer then having a hard copy.


Having worked in IT for a few years I would have to ask...

When did people *start* backing up their files? :lol:

Mike


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

As long as people consider 768Kbps to be "broadband", you will NEVER see digital downloads replace physical media on a wide scale.

I have a 15Mbps fiber connection and I'm an anomaly. *Most* people don't have anywhere NEAR that service and the biggest batch of people who even come CLOSE (cable modem subscribers) are *sharing* bandwidth in their neighborhoods.

Now, I get perfectly good PQ when I'm watching a "Terry Jones Medieval Lives" (BBC series) via Netflix downloads on my Xbox 360 - in *SD*. But compare that to a Blu-Ray of Planet Earth. Throttling down the bitrate so that you can do Planet Earth over a 'typical' connection is pathetic. It just won't work.

We don't overbuild infrastructure these days.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Chris,

This is exactly the balanced perspective that I missed from reading your earlier posts. I completely agree with this analysis.

Tho I do have to say, my grandkids (about the same age as your kids) have a big tendency to "acquire DVDs" via the redbox channel. Even at $1/day, if you forget to return them long enough, it's cheaper to just buy the disk. And they have done that many, many times. 

(Which completely argues in your favor that downloads might very well be their answer.) 

Cheers,
Tom


Chris Blount said:


> I can understand some of the arguments here about hard media. Believe it or not, I agree. I am also a fan of hard media. I think it's important to understand, however, that most of us here are from an older generation. We cherish our hard media.
> 
> BUT - The answer lies in the younger generation. Take a look at your kids (for those who have them). My kids are 23 and 21. Both of them NEVER purchase CD's. Most of their music is obtained through iTunes and places on their iPods. Neither have a CD player in their car. Just an iPod and a FM transmitter.
> 
> ...


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## Button Pusher (Jan 19, 2007)

Well I hope Blu-Ray sticks around. I just purchased a Sony BDP-S350 yesterday. I was trying to hold out but just had to get one. I remember Stuart giving this player a good review so I went with it. Now watch Blu-Ray die within the month. That is what happened to me when I purchased my HD-DVD player.


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## tgr131 (Apr 9, 2007)

I'm might have missed it, but there's one other issue that needs to be mentioned here --

We're all techies, and we enjoy the challenge of either wiring our entertainment center for ethernet, or getting the wireless connection to work on our Roku Box, etc. I think we're a ways away from that being mainstream.

Most people want to buy a player, and hook it up, and have it work. There will still be a market for that type of consumer for a long time.

I have a Bluray player, and I find it frustrating that different discs respond differently to the same action. Some discs resume nicely after being stopped. Some discs force me to start over. DVD's have menus that pop up-- many BD's just start. I find those little annoyances, well, annoying. But they are alien to me in the same way that plugging an IP address into a br player would be to many.

David


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Button Pusher said:


> Well I hope Blu-Ray sticks around. I just purchased a Sony BDP-S350 yesterday. I was trying to hold out but just had to get one. I remember Stuart giving this player a good review so I went with it. Now watch Blu-Ray die within the month. That is what happened to me when I purchased my HD-DVD player.


You'll be fine for years to come....not to worry....


tgr131 said:


> I have a Bluray player, and I find it frustrating that different discs respond differently to the same action. Some discs resume nicely after being stopped. Some discs force me to start over.
> David


That's a function of the Hollywood folks in their BD disk setup and design, not the player...but your point is well-taken.

I still contend that until significant broadband (10Mbps or higher) is the norm, we won't see any kind of significant download adoption to up-end Blu Ray.


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## Balestrom (Jan 12, 2007)

Tom Robertson said:


> *Thoughts:*
> 
> Chris, how do you take your hard drive to the RV or van so the kids can watch? I can do that with DVD today, BD later this year.
> 
> ...


I think Tom sort of hit the nail on the head here.

While I understand that its the tech savy people out there that help lead the revolution, I believe its the standard family unit that drives or slows the advancement of new entertainment technoligy by sheer sales.

My kids and wife would flog me if I played them a brand new movie, Narnia, as an example, that they could not watch over and over again when ever they wanted for years on other players/televisions in the house.

Access to movies by children drives the entertainment sales of Disney for example. As any parent of young children know, movies like Nemo and Mermaid get played over and over and over through years of having children and if they get scratched or destroy, out to the store to be another.

Just take a look at the movie rack for any parent with children ages 1-15.

The average family has learned how to use DVD players and Blue Ray players, but as I think about the neighborhood I live in or look around the office I work, I cannot think of anyone save a few who download or would like to download enough to even bother learning.

As long as the family unit doesn't care about the technology or cannot utilize it effectively, then it won't become a large niche. As Tom indicated, the current trend in our area and many others is the purchase of DVD players in the car.

The more something is cemented into our standard way of living, the harder it becomes to change it.

Think of the amount of people currently using HD with DirecTV. Its been around for a long time, but most viewers only watch SD. How much longer will it take for the technology of HD to overtake SD? Ask the family unit.

As another example, look at this whole mess in switching to digital siginals... our local ABC just had a half hour program the other night trying to educate people. To me, it simple. But, to spend a half hour trying to explain to their veiwing audience how they will be affected by the switch, tells me that there is a large percentage of the population who doesn't get it. And they are going to download movies? Those are the same people still using VCR's to record instead of DVR's because they are scared to switch or think it will be to complicated or believe the just don't need it. However, they are probably the same people who are currently popping Ben Ten season II disc 1 into their DVD player for there son (as long as they live in Iowa and schools are closed because its -19 outside right now.) :grin:

So, that leaves your 15 year old child who is probably spends half his/her day texting. They will probably download movies in college (if it still be had on the cheap) and probably into their early twenties. Then they will meet a spouse, who is a hair dresser or an accountant and doesn't really care about downloading or technology and is 10 years behind the times (in tech terms). This new spouse will from time to time want to watch their favorite sappy movie on cold winters nights with popcorn, the 2015 remake of When Harry Met Sally. Then they will have children. And grandparents will get those children DVDs.. because of course they are 30 years behind the times and the whole cycle will begin again, with perhaps some new modifications in technology.... Okay, maybe that was over generalized.

Long dull story shortened.... the family unit drives entertainment. If they don't care, then all this downloading will only become is a small niche.


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## dettxw (Nov 21, 2007)

edit - got better state locations for Ultimate from their website.

For those in New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, & Minnesota Ultimate Electronics is selling the Sony BDP-S550 Blu-ray player for $245 from 5-9pm today.


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## spartanstew (Nov 16, 2005)

tgr131 said:


> We're all techies,


Why do you think that?

The ability to access an online forum doesn't mean someone's a "techie".


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## Alan Gordon (Jun 7, 2004)

Chris Blount said:


> BUT - The answer lies in the younger generation. Take a look at your kids (for those who have them). My kids are 23 and 21.


I'll be 28 next month, so I'm not sure whether or not I'm included in your "younger generation" anymore, but I do want to add a couple of comments:



Chris Blount said:


> Both of them NEVER purchase CD's. Most of their music is obtained through iTunes and places on their iPods. Neither have a CD player in their car. Just an iPod and a FM transmitter.


I really don't buy a lot of music these days. I have a few artists I buy every album of, and I often pick up the Now That's What I Call Music CD volumes.

However, I have purchased music from iTunes as well. It's GREAT! I don't have to buy a whole album if I only want 1 (ONE) song. It's also great for picking up some obscure music. I know many people who buy from iTunes, for the very same reasons...

However, while I may want only one song from an album, I DO (generally) want a whole movie.



Chris Blount said:


> Both never buy DVD's. They either watch them on satellite or through netflix. My son has a collection of DVD's only because he inherits my old DVD's when I replace them with Blu-Rays.


I know a lot of people who watch movies mainly via cable/satellite or rental outlet (mostly via rental stores, but I know one Netflix user). However, all of them usually own at least a dozen movies on DVD... sometimes more!



Chris Blount said:


> All I'm saying is that Blu-Ray has some years left but not as many as some of you think. There's going to be a huge paradigm shift once the the 20 somethings start earning more money.


I expect at least 10 years out of Blu-ray before "digital downloads" start becoming the dominant thing... and then I believe it's possible that both could possibly co-exist for several years after for us "older" folks who still want hard copies, and for those of us who like giving movies as gifts.

~Alan


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

houskamp said:


> anyone remember a few years ago when Microsoft was going to rent major apps? They were gonna be online apps with a yearly fee..
> People like to actualy OWN stuff..


Well, you can sort of do this with a subscription to MS TechNet, MSDN, or MAPS for Partners. MAPS seems to be the best deal at $300 per year.


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

Alan Gordon said:


> Tom Robertson said:
> 
> 
> > My first LD was _Hunt for Red October_ because it was only $30 and the VHS was $80-ish.
> ...


You guys are alright in my book! Hunt for Red October is one of my favorite movies, too. And now *I* also have to decide how buy now or wait...HMM!


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

The comparison to downloading movies vs. downloading music is not apples to apples. Music can easily be taken with you and enjoyed in the background - home, car, work, beach, etc. Movies are a different sort of entertainment where you generally set aside two hours for viewing in a specific place. I know many music players also double as "movie" players, but few people really enjoy watching silver screen entertainment on a palm sized low-res screen.

Also, the shift to downloads will likely not be the same as "owning' the disc. It's more likely to evolve into a PPV model. So, if I'm sitting on the couch one night and decide I's like to see The Hunt for Red October for the 18th time, I don't want to have to pay to download it and view it. I'd rather just pay $15-$20 once so the disc can be sitting in my closet, ready to pop into the player on a whim.


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

txtommy said:


> There are far too many regions of this country where real 'high speed internet' is still several years into the future. With our so called 'high speed internet' service from Hughesnet we are allowed a maximum of 425MB download per day. To download the 6 GB movie you referenced would take two weeks on our service assuming we did nothing else; not very practical. :nono2:


If you noticed that was the point of my post. If your situation becomes more prevalent then no one is going to download movies rather than buy them.


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

Jason Nipp said:


> I was under the impression that Comcast has already done this?
> 
> Either way infrastructure, bandwidth, and cost of bandwidth are going to decide the future of downloads.... IMHO.


I believe it is a soft cap currently while they test the feasability.

I find it absolutely laughable that comcast specificaly markets on the platform that their service is so much 'faster' than their competitions, yet that are simultaneously testing ways to limit your overall usage of their service. Instead of marketing ridiculous end user speeds that your backbone cannot actually support maybe a better solution would be to market realistic connection speeds that your network can actually support without limiting overall usage.


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## tgr131 (Apr 9, 2007)

spartanstew said:


> Why do you think that?
> 
> The ability to access an online forum doesn't mean someone's a "techie".


We all are able to access and frequent an online forum devoted to a fairly technical subject, which is more than the market I was referring to will do. (The bluray owner who just wants to buy the box and have it work, vs the gadget lovers like us who are willing to wire our entertainment centers with internet access) No judgment in that analysis, just making an observation.


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## dettxw (Nov 21, 2007)

dettxw said:


> edit - got better state locations for Ultimate from their website.
> 
> For those in New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Missouri, Colorado, Arizona, Illinois, Kansas, & Minnesota Ultimate Electronics is selling the Sony BDP-S550 Blu-ray player for $245 from 5-9pm today.


Wouldn't you know, got there and of course they had none.
(Sony BDP-S550 for $245)

Was able to order one at the sale price though, should get it at least by Tuesday.

I'll move the PS3 into my bedroom and set up the player in the living room. Then it can be controlled by a regular remote. My old gray-haired Mom never did figure out the PS3. :lol:


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Just happened to get back from a quick stop at Blockbuster...they're up to 3 big rows of Blu Ray there now....and the Manager told me its up over 18% of his rentals...

Last week, BD disk sales were up to 16.8% of movie disk sales....

So the "traction of BD continues...


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## smiddy (Apr 5, 2006)

Chris Blount said:


> All I'm saying is that Blu-Ray has some years left but not as many as some of you think. There's going to be a huge paradigm shift once the the 20 somethings start earning more money.





hdtvfan0001 said:


> I still believe the primary driving force to downloadable media adoption is broadband service pricing, not devices themselves.


There has to be a certain amount of efficiency and as these folks get older they will look for the best value. So in order for that paradigm shift to occur it has to be worth it and I think it is doable with the right package. Heck, for that matter libraries could eventually become a thing of the past. I mean in the traditional sense, with a book repository. You could literally download the material you need when you need it and a similar scheme can be done with entertainment media too (not that books aren't that either, but you get the gest). It will all come down to the best value. If I know I will want to watch something over and over and over and over ad infinitum then the choice between NetFlix and hard copy, even at full price, hard copy will win out since I only pay once where I would have to continually pay with a NetFlix type service. The one thing that doesn't capture my interest is paying a monthly service for something I may or may not use...or at least get the value out I pay in (refering to Zune Social, though I imagine other music services are similar). Will it never capture the audience as a lion share, maybe. But it will likely never capture me. :eek2:


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## kevinwmsn (Aug 19, 2006)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> Just happened to get back from a quick stop at Blockbuster...they're up to 3 big rows of Blu Ray there now....and the Manager told me its up over 18% of his rentals...
> 
> Last week, BD disk sales were up to 16.8% of movie disk sales....
> 
> So the "traction of BD continues...


They sounds awful like the history of when DVDs first came out, while VHS was still king. My first DVD player was a PS2... and besides gaming I watched many DVDs on in until DVD players got to the $100 mark. I will likely do the same thing for Blu-ray, watch them on the PS3. I picked up a PS3 remote and Hancock for $25 in December at Wal-mart, I was thinking of a getting the remote for a while but throwing in a movie put me over the top. 
I think we'll have bluray for the next 5-10 years, just be sure your player will have network connection we might need it.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

kevinwmsn said:


> I think we'll have bluray for the next 5-10 years, just be sure your player will have network connection we might need it.


Several manufacturers have already announced combination Blu Ray players with Netflix and/or Amazon download combinations. If you have a really good bandwidth on your Internet connection, that might work out well for some folks.

At the recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES), I saw at least 6 different Blu Ray players in total from 3 different manufacturers with this capability - 2 were Panasonic, who makes a very good current series of players.


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## phat78boy (Sep 12, 2007)

I too think its more a generational thing more then anything. I see my dads collection of LP's, cassettes, LD's, VHS, DVD's and now blu-ray and all I can think is how I could probably take his whole wall of media and condense it into my home server which fits neatly in the corner of my office. I don't get it....


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## paulman182 (Aug 4, 2006)

I've posted this before, but I think it bears repeating...it says a lot that the Wal-Mart in my town of 6,000 people has 3 Blu-ray players on display and probably 100 titles for sale.

And they are sold out on two of the players.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

phat78boy said:


> I too think its more a generational thing more then anything. I see my dads collection of LP's, cassettes, LD's, VHS, DVD's and now blu-ray and all I can think is how I could probably take his whole wall of media and condense it into my home server which fits neatly in the corner of my office. I don't get it....


Perhaps its because some of the vinyl (that would be LP records for those folks who haven't been to the Smithsonian...) and LD's will actually sound and/or look better than any MP3 if played with the right equipment....

Honestly....despite over 18 years of direct music background.....I couldn't even fill a 4GB iPod with the music I like to listen to.....which is more wide-ranging than I care to admit...my one daughter makes fun of me switching from 1812 Overture to Limp Biscuit....and playing both loud at that.

I firmly believe (and have been told this as well by a number of people directly) that the convenience of having these 160GB MP3 music devices has resulted in folks just downloading anything and everything....but then they are actually listening to perhaps 10-20% of what they actually have stored.

My daughters both have 120GB MP3 devices, and admit they listen to many of the same 20-30 songs "90% of the time", and the other 1000's of songs they've downloaded are "just in case" they want to listent to something else...

Comparing music downloads with the huge files needed for HD video is not even close.

As for Blu Ray - having the HD quality media when you want it, and without broadband hiccups or interuption, not to mention lower in cost for re-views....is what has driven its popularity so far...


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## cb7214 (Jan 25, 2007)

one of the thing's i noticed when I purchased my last 2 blu-ray movies is that they are coming with digital copies that you can save and watch on your computer, which then allows you to have a "backup" to your disc. However what i don't like is that it is only a SD copy of the movie, so you pay $25 or $30 for a Hi-Def movie but only get the SD verison of the digital download


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

cb7214 said:


> one of the thing's i noticed when I purchased my last 2 blu-ray movies is that they are coming with digital copies that you can save and watch on your computer, which then allows you to have a "backup" to your disc. However what i don't like is that it is only a SD copy of the movie, so you pay $25 or $30 for a Hi-Def movie but only get the SD verison of the digital download


The reason for that is that the digital copy is intended for laptops, desktop PC's and mobile media devices.....amost none of which (today) support Blu Ray.

That allows their use in those devices....and by the way...having viewed WALL*E and Dark Knight digital copies on 2 long flights....I really thought the image quality was outstanding for those versions (for SD).


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> Just happened to get back from a quick stop at Blockbuster...they're up to 3 big rows of Blu Ray there now....and the Manager told me its up over 18% of his rentals...
> 
> Last week, BD disk sales were up to 16.8% of movie disk sales....
> 
> So the "traction of BD continues...


I don't think anyone is debating whether HD is better than SD formatting, of course Blu Ray sales are 'up', the question is really will people continue buying movie discs, or will the easy availability of online movies make buying discs a thing of the past.

What we are really seeing is the affect properly marketing to a new generation and utilizing new technology can have if done the right way, back in the Napster days if the RIAA hadn't had their heads up their asses they could have capitolized on this market as well, but instead they alienated 90% of it acting like schoolyard bullies.


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## Hutchinshouse (Sep 28, 2006)

mmccaugh said:


> I don't think anyone is debating whether HD is better than SD formatting, of course Blu Ray sales are 'up', the question is really will people continue buying movie discs, or will the easy availability of online movies make buying discs a thing of the past.
> 
> What we are really seeing is the affect properly marketing to a new generation and utilizing new technology can have if done the right way, back in the Napster days if the RIAA hadn't had their heads up their asses they could have capitolized on this market as well, but instead they alienated 90% of it acting like schoolyard bullies.


It will be a long time before "_easy availability of online movies_" is a reality. There's a mammoth of a difference from downloading a 3.5MB song versus a 1GB+ movie. I give Blu-ray 10 years before "downloading" becomes a threat to its wellbeing.


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

Hutchinshouse said:


> It will be a long time before "_easy availability of online movies_" is a reality. There's a mammoth of a difference from downloading a 3.5MB song versus a 1GB+ movie. I give Blu-ray 10 years before "downloading" becomes a threat to its wellbeing.


Have you tried Netflix?


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## spartanstew (Nov 16, 2005)

mmccaugh said:


> Have you tried Netflix?


IIRC, Netflix downloads aren't comparable to Blu Ray in PQ or AQ, so there's no way to know how well it would work.


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

spartanstew said:


> IIRC, Netflix downloads aren't comparable to Blu Ray in PQ or AQ, so there's no way to know how well it would work.


There is a HD section under there, I don't know exactly what format they are in though.

Still, if that doesn't work look at Comcast, specifically their Cable On Demand, much of which is available in HD.

The bandwidth is obviously available for streaming HD services, if bandwidth keeps becoming more easily available then it's going to kill hard formats eventually, if bandwidth becomes less available then I would expect to see the on demand formats lose ground.

In any case look at the evolution of the internet, 10 years ago if you had told me I could have 10 times the speed of a T1 worth of download bandwidth in my house for under $50 a month I would have thought you were insane, who knows what will be available in the future.


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## spartanstew (Nov 16, 2005)

mmccaugh said:


> There is a HD section under there, I don't know exactly what format they are in though.
> 
> Still, if that doesn't work look at Comcast, specifically their Cable On Demand, much of which is available in HD.


But they still can't provide lossless audio and most don't even have standard 5.1 ( I don't believe Netflix does on their downloads). To me (and I think many others), the audio portion of the equation is just as important as the picture part.

So, I don't consider those services a serious threat to Blu Ray yet. In 5-10 years, sure. Not now.


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## ASAOG (Oct 7, 2008)

I bought into the Toshiba HD-DVD's with a minimal investment (many free HD-DVDs). I enjoyed the picture quality, the cost of DVDs was reasonable, and very much liked the upconversion of my regular DVDs. I still use the unit today. When Toshiba pulled the plug. I waited quite a while to spring the $ for Blue-Ray (less than $200 for a Panasonic). I enjoy the picture quality, and I like the upconversion capabilities. I use this unit as my primary DVD player with the Tosh as a backup. I find the cost of Blu-Ray discs too high and do not own many. I only purchase the disks when they go on sale and even then I try to avoid paying more than $20. If Blu-Ray fades in the sunset, it will go the way of my 8-track, cassette deck, floppy disk drive, commodore 64 and all the other toys I have enjoyed over the years (I am a registered senior citizen ). 

I buy the hard media DVDs because I like to permanently own them to view or loan to my friends and relatives as I please. As mentioned in previous posts, I am concerned that downloaded movies will soon self-destruct after 24 hours of use or that bandwidth restrictions will force increased costs for downloading movies. 

For now, I hope more Blu-Ray disks becomes available and that the disk costs continue to drop. I firmly believe cheap Blu-Ray disks can significantly extend this format's survival. Otherwise, I will have to watch another one of those marvelous tech toys become a fond memory


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## mmccaugh (Dec 17, 2008)

spartanstew said:


> But they still can't provide lossless audio and most don't even have standard 5.1 ( I don't believe Netflix does on their downloads). To me (and I think many others), the audio portion of the equation is just as important as the picture part.
> 
> So, I don't consider those services a serious threat to Blu Ray yet. In 5-10 years, sure. Not now.


I didn't think about the audio, you are right though I don't know how I forgot that. On some of the better audio the compression codec seems to introduce a slight delay so the audio is no longer perfectly synced with the picture.

Once you notice it, it will drive you freaking insane.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

mmccaugh said:


> What we are really seeing is the affect properly marketing to a new generation and utilizing new technology can have if done the right way, back in the Napster days if the RIAA hadn't had their heads up their asses they could have capitolized on this market as well, but instead they alienated 90% of it acting like schoolyard bullies.


I can understand that....so here is my simple retort...

Bandwidth Slow = Downloading No. 


Hutchinshouse said:


> It will be a long time before "_easy availability of online movies_" is a reality. There's a mammoth of a difference from downloading a 3.5MB song versus a 1GB+ movie. I give Blu-ray 10 years before "downloading" becomes a threat to its wellbeing.


Yup....you and I are on the same page.


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## Hutchinshouse (Sep 28, 2006)

mmccaugh said:


> Have you tried Netflix?


Netflix download, nope, my number one preference is "high quality" high definition and "high quality" audio. I will never sacrifice quality for convenience. Plus, I want the lossless audio and the blu-ray extras. I hear ya, I'm just saying as long as blu-ray is making money it is NOT going anywhere.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Hutchinshouse said:


> I'm just saying as long as blu-ray is making money it is NOT going anywhere.


...and the money is rolling in these days....


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## Wukillabeez78 (Aug 13, 2008)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> The reason for that is that the digital copy is intended for laptops, desktop PC's and mobile media devices.....amost none of which (today) support Blu Ray.
> 
> That allows their use in those devices....and by the way...having viewed WALL*E and Dark Knight digital copies on 2 long flights....I really thought the image quality was outstanding for those versions (for SD).


Most of the newer computers coming out support Blu-Ray. I recently purchased a new Sony Vaio laptop that came with a Blu-Ray dvd drive on it and all of my desktop computer monitors have widescreen HD displays. The latest/greatest is out there, most people just can't or don't want to pay for it (esp. given the current economic conditions).


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Wukillabeez78 said:


> Most of the newer computers coming out support Blu-Ray. I recently purchased a new Sony Vaio laptop that came with a Blu-Ray dvd drive on it and all of my desktop computer monitors have widescreen HD displays. The latest/greatest is out there, most people just can't or don't want to pay for it (esp. given the current economic conditions).


That may be true for Sony computers (Since they founded Blu Ray)...but not for most other computers.

One of the main reasons, I suspect, that other manufacturers have been moving slowly to add Blu Ray drives is the slow U.S. adoption of write-capable drives (found now for over a year in the Asia markets). The other is the higher price.

Read only is OK...but until write-capable Blu Ray drives are available, don't look for the read-only dirves to become all that mainstream (except in Sony units).

As for the Standard Definition copies...the imagery on 2 movies I viewed on a roundtrip flight recently with my 17" Dell laptop display was outstanding.


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## Bohica (Jan 6, 2008)

Considering downloading versus physical media, Tanenbaum said "Never underestimate the bandwidth of a station wagon full of tapes hurtling down the highway." I always found that amusing, and still true.


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## dettxw (Nov 21, 2007)

I've got a Blu-ray burner on my Dell desktop. Forget what I paid for it, couldn't have been cheap, maybe it was included in part of a package. Not that I've ever burned a Blu-ray disk though. One problem with it is that the damn thing won't burn regular 16X DVDs, have to put in the slower 8X versions.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

Disk-based media's days are numbered.
It's an inefficient and costly method of delivering content.
I haven't purchased or rented a DVD or CD in years. No need to change that with blu-ray.
It will take time, but spinning disks are history.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

deltafowler said:


> Disk-based media's days are numbered.


But, of course, that is the case with just about any technology...


> It's an inefficient and costly method of delivering content.


Actually that's just plain not true. It can be mass produced very effectively, and the actual unit cost is within a dollar of standard DVDs...the final market price is not about the delivering of content - it's about Hollywood (greedy) licensing rights.

If people think they aren't/won't be paying more for licensed HD download content...they are sadly fooling themselves. It took over 10 years for standard DVDs to get into the "bargain basement pricing" mode...meanwhile, Blu Rays are now commonly available for 50% or more off retail, and even less in cost on sale. Soon the gap between DVDs and Blu Ray disks will be less than $5.00 on average.

If you want to talk about an "inefficient and costly method of delivering content", think about downloadable HD content. Major-league (costly) high bandwidth is mandatory, content plugs up the Internet with huge file transmissions, and one hiccup along the way corrupts the download file.


> I haven't purchased or rented a DVD or CD in years. No need to change that with blu-ray.


So what experience with Blu Ray disk are you using to formulate any educated/experience-based opinion???


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## Cholly (Mar 22, 2004)

Regarding Netflix: It's my understanding that in order to be able to do Netflix downloads, you must first be a subscriber to the Netflix service (minimum of $9.99 a month plus sales tax for Blu-ray content). I've been a subscriber for just about a month and have received three movies so far. The elapsed time from my returning a DVD to receiving the next DVD in my queue is less than a week. Not bad for snail mail. The latest movie we viewed was "The Day After Tomorrow". There was a defect on the disc that caused pixellation and lost audio for about 20 seconds about 3/4 the way through the movie. I didn't bother to look at the playing surface to look for nicks or scratches when I returned the disc. 
I have two problems with Netflix: the first is the packaging of discs. While very clever, I'm inclined to believe that it's prone to disc damage. The second is the lack of newly released movies. While their library is fairly large, new movies don't seem to show up until long after they're available for rental at Blockbuster.
Although I have the ability to download unlimited movies to my TiVo dvr's I haven't tried that service as yet, so can't comment on the speed of streaming.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> So what experience with Blu Ray disk are you using to formulate any educated/experience-based opinion???


My lack of experience with blu-ray is my experience.
I have absolutely no need for it and no desire to own one.
Maybe if they made a player with a USB port and Ethernet, and had it decode my preferred content, but they're not going that way, out of ignorance and fear.

All of my experiences have been with downloaded digital media.
As has been the case with DivX, XviD, & H.264, better methods for compression, delivery, and playback will continue to nip at the heels of blu-ray, just as they have with the DVD format.

I can load up about 15 movies on little thumb drive right now and play them straight to my 46" SONY. I can delete them when I'm finished or I can move them back a HDD for archiving.
They don't get scratched. There's no moving parts to break. There's no need for racks to store them, and they never degrade in quality.

While 1080p isn't currently available to me with my current equipment, it's just around the corner, and getting easier and cheaper every day.

I don't deny that it is relatively cheap to manufacture and distribute disk-based media. I'm just saying that the alternative delivery methods will certainly overtake them sooner than later. It's unstoppable.

If the MPAA and RIAA want to continue to enjoy their piece of the pie, then they'd better get their acts together and get on the virtual bus.
Even if they do that, they're still going the way of the dinosaur as well. 
With today's technologies for production and editing, and with online methods of getting exposure and delivery, artists are finding themselves less and less in need of those corporate leeches.

Look at what Digg, Youtube, and others like them have done.
Anyone can be a star, and there's no need for agents, executives, lawyers, etc. making a parasitic living off them anymore.


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

Tell me, deltafowler, where are these 15 movies coming from? Legally purchased downloads, I presume?


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## paulman182 (Aug 4, 2006)

deltafowler said:


> With today's technologies for production and editing, and with online methods of getting exposure and delivery, artists are finding themselves less and less in need of those corporate leeches.
> 
> Look at what Digg, Youtube, and others like them have done.
> Anyone can be a star, and there's no need for agents, executives, lawyers, etc. making a parasitic living off them anymore.


All I can say is, if music and movies of the future will be likes of what we see and hear on Youtube and other do-it-yourself sites, we'd better start buying the physical media now, while we can--our whole entertainment system is going down the tubes.

TV was supposed to replace radio and movie theaters, VHS and DVD were supposed to replace movie theaters, radio was supposed to replace recorded performances, satellite radio was supposed to replace terrestrial radio, computers and downloading are supposed to replace it all--they all have/had their place, and they all take/took a piece of the pie, but that's it.

I'm looking forward to watching one of the Batman sequels on Youtube, made without benefit of agents, executives or laywers...or SFX people, or makeup artists, or scriptwriters, or directors, or other "leeches"...just Christian Bale, Michael Caine, and their buds getting together with their flash camcorder and making a movie.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

paulman,

To add to your well said post, they often didn't take a piece of the pie, but expanded the pie as well. 

Yum


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## RAD (Aug 5, 2002)

Cholly said:


> Regarding Netflix: It's my understanding that in order to be able to do Netflix downloads, you must first be a subscriber to the Netflix service (minimum of $9.99 a month plus sales tax for Blu-ray content). I've been a subscriber for just about a month and have received three movies so far. The elapsed time from my returning a DVD to receiving the next DVD in my queue is less than a week. Not bad for snail mail. The latest movie we viewed was "The Day After Tomorrow". There was a defect on the disc that caused pixellation and lost audio for about 20 seconds about 3/4 the way through the movie. I didn't bother to look at the playing surface to look for nicks or scratches when I returned the disc.
> I have two problems with Netflix: the first is the packaging of discs. While very clever, I'm inclined to believe that it's prone to disc damage. The second is the lack of newly released movies. While their library is fairly large, new movies don't seem to show up until long after they're available for rental at Blockbuster.
> Although I have the ability to download unlimited movies to my TiVo dvr's I haven't tried that service as yet, so can't comment on the speed of streaming.


I rent BD's from Netflix and very rearly have any problems with disc errors. When I do I let Netflix know and I can get another copy shipped if I can't clean it up.

About new movies, don't know what movies you're trying to get, I've had some on my queue that arrive the same day they become available at stores.


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## houskamp (Sep 14, 2006)

Just for reference, DVD or CD costs 1$ to produce in quanities of 1000.. I'm sure even cheaper for 100k or more.. The rest is going to the label.. Be assured they will make that money up on downloads too (problably more than once if you happen to loose it)


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

It's hard to explain a sunrise to a blind man. :nono2:


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## BattleZone (Nov 13, 2007)

My year-old HP laptop came with a Blu-Ray (read-only)/DVD-burner drive, and all but the cheapest models from this year have them too. Yes, the burners are more expensive, just as DVD burners were more expensive the first couple of years that DVD readers were available, but like everything else, the price will come down.

Not many folks are worried about burning Blu-Rays right now; they just want to watch movies.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

houskamp said:


> Just for reference, DVD or CD costs 1$ to produce in quanities of 1000.. I'm sure even cheaper for 100k or more.. The rest is going to the label.. Be assured they will make that money up on downloads too (probably more than once if you happen to loose it)


Yes...its all about Hollywood getting their major cut of the costs, regardless of the delivery channel.

Unfortunately...delivering HD movies through today's mainstream (average used/available) bandwidth is kinda like birthing a 25 lb. baby with a 100 lb. woman.....it's gonna take a while for things to be delivered, and likely alot of pain along the way...:eek2:



deltafowler said:


> It's hard to explain a sunrise to a blind man. :nono2:


Just like its hard for a deaf person to hear the truth. :lol:

When most folks have 15-20Mbps internet bandwidth, then perhaps we'll see some real traction...until then...it's nothing more than alot of wishful thinking and science fiction.

Even the vendors at the CES admitted that despite adding download capability (such as Netflix) into some models of Blu Ray players.... mainstream market adoption was "several years away at the soonest".


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## RAD (Aug 5, 2002)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> When most folks have 15-20Mbps internet bandwidth, then perhaps we'll see some real traction...until then...it's nothing more than alot of wishful thinking and science fiction.


Or when the conten providers have the infrsatructure to support it. Check out the reports from a number of E* users trying to download the 1080p version of "The Beast", many reporting download speeds <1Mbps from Dish while they have much faster internet connections.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

deltafowler said:


> Maybe if they made a player with a USB port and Ethernet, and had it decode my preferred content, but they're not going that way, out of ignorance and fear.


Actually I believe there is at least one model of Blu ray player that has the capability to download from Netflix. Not sure what model, but I know I've seen people talking about it over on AVSForums.



deltafowler said:


> I can load up about 15 movies on little thumb drive right now and play them straight to my 46" SONY. I can delete them when I'm finished or I can move them back a HDD for archiving.
> They don't get scratched. There's no moving parts to break. There's no need for racks to store them, and they never degrade in quality.


Hard drives do have spinning/moving components... so while the thumb drive might not mechanically fail, hard drives certainly can. Also, for the devil's advocate argument... I can place my Blu Ray discs right on top of the largest magnet I can find... don't try that with your hard drives of movies! 

And long before the hard drive completely fails, bits and bytes will start dropping out... but the Blu ray disc will still play like it did when you first bought it.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

Yeah, I keep all of my industrial magnets well away from my hard drives :lol:

Netflix? What is this Netflix of which you speak? :lol:

12 mbps - give it five years. It will seem like dial-up.


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

Again, Mr. Fowler, I'm not quite sure where you got your collection of electronic media legally and ethically. I don't believe you answered that.


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

Any legitimate download service isn't going to allow their bits and bytes on a thumb drive.

I have a 4TB home server. My laptop has a Blu-Ray drive. I have a pair of E* VIP 612 DVRs, each one hooked up to a 1080p LCD HDTV. My net connection is ex-Fios-now-Fairpoint fiberoptic. I even have the Netflix client on my XBox 360 Elite. To say the least, I have options.

Right now, that 15Mbps connection costs me just under $50. Now, because I'm a geek and have been for over 40 years, I can configure and troubleshoot all this stuff. it's a hobby for me.

Tell me. How exactly is one supposed to troubleshoot all these wonderful net-connection mediums versus the "put the disc in the tray and hit play" simplicity of packaged media? Go talk to any tech support person at any ISP and see what kind of calls they get.

Yes, I'm glad I have these options and that I have the technical wherewithal to explit them. But I don't begin for a minute to think that this will replace packaged media.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

djlong said:


> Tell me. How exactly is one supposed to troubleshoot all these wonderful net-connection mediums versus the "put the disc in the tray and hit play" simplicity of packaged media? Go talk to any tech support person at any ISP and see what kind of calls they get.


While your statement is true, it is also frozen in time.
And frozen in time is something that progress is not.
When the VCR's and Microwave Ovens first came out, there were plenty who had no clue as to how operate them.
You need only look back on how far we've come to gather some vision of how far we can yet go.

There will always be early adopters, latecomers, and those who choose to be static and stale within their own comfort levels.
The former forge on and pave the way for the future.
The latter wither and die off, thus ending their legacy.

Apple could have made the ipod to include a cassette player, cd player, and maybe an 8 track, but they chose to forge ahead.

I'm sure, somewhere out there, there are a few PC users still clinging to Windows 98.
Progress isn't about them.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Progress is a funny thing.

I am reminded of the snowstorms that take out power for a week and things grind to a halt in some towns. People will buy up a month's worth of milk/bread/water/toilet paper for a 3 day snow-in... and panic ensues if their power is out more than 24 hours.

And yet... less than a generation ago this would have been a minor convenience. Two generations ago and people didn't even have power to lose.

So... with each advance comes new problems.

Digital downloads can't be stored on a shelf on top of your subwoofer. They also need to be backed-up if you want to keep them. Downloads are also quite slow OR at much lower quality until 30Gbps broadband becomes more available to us all... and then ISPs will lower bandwidth caps and raise prices to compensate for that extra speed.

I just don't see all progress as progress. Change for the sake of change also might not be progress after all.


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

I was there when microwaves were introduced. The only barriers there were cost (early ones cost $400+ in 1975 dollars) and knowledge (you can't cook a hot dog in 20 seconds! Oh - you *can*?). You didn't need to know much to operate them.

VCRs are an interesting case. Same barriers but once they were overcome, the technical barriers to programming the clock and the then-manual tuners became a source of material for late-night comedians. Studies were even done to find out how many people had VCRs that were flashing "12:00" and there were a LOT.

Dial-up internet started happening in the 1990s. Not many people could handle loading a stack and dialing and keeping one's modem parameters in tune with the settings on the serial port at the time. Now, when Windows 95 had it built-in and modems went to USB, you overcame a lot of that.

Likewise, there are going to have to be technologies introduced that erase the number of visible layers of things that can go wrong before streaming video really takes off. The way I see it, here are the things that have to happen:

- The device has to be a 'toaster'. It has to "just work". And it has to have a very friendly interface.

- All ISPs are going to have to upgrade their networks. AFAIK, only Verizon is building for the future. When I had Fios installed, the guy told me that, even with TV, they weren't even using a quarter of the bandwidth available to the house.

- Price. $50/mo for just the internet is going to have to come down. (My fiber runs $49.95/mo)

- ISPs will also have to get rid of the idea that they can/should put caps on service. This harkens back to when people wanted to, in the lingo of the day, "put tollbooths on the information superhighway" with their by-the-byte billing. That idea flew like a dead goose and stunk like one as well.


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## Hutchinshouse (Sep 28, 2006)

I cannot believe this thread is still open. Blu-ray is not dead. Downloading may be the future. However, it's 10+ years away. Sure downloading is possible; however we're putting the horse ahead of the carriage. The question shouldn't be "will downloading kill Blu-ray"? The question should be "when will we ALL have sufficient download speeds capable of downloading 1GB+ movies"? The movie companies will not drop Blu-ray for downloading anytime soon. For example, how productive would it be for Universal to ship Blu-ray discs out by bicycle? Not too productive. Right now, downloading is the bicycle; Blu-ray is the Ferrari. Money rules!


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

Hutchinshouse said:


> Right now, downloading is the bicycle; Blu-ray is the Ferrari.


Ha ha!
I guess that depends on whether or not you have access to the Autobahn or a trail behind your house. :lol:
Me, "I've got an Interstate running through my front yard", so I've got little use for the blu-ray bicycle. I need that Ferrari, and that's a fat pipe and some nifty tools to get to the good stuff  Ain't that America!


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

Again, Mr. Fowler, I ask if that "Interstate" runs through the legal, or illegal, part of town. I submit that if you're getting all this content illegally that your argument is both ethically questionable and untenable for the long term.


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## puckhead (Sep 22, 2007)

While I am of the belief that downloads and physical media will exist together for ~10 more years, I will add that Blu-ray players are not quite at the "just works" phase for those not so technically inclined. HDMI handshakes, firmware updates, lossless audio formats, 24p modes, etc are just a few of the hurdles that come with the enjoyment of being Blu. Perhaps these features are not such a huge issue for DBSTalkers, but the average consumer may be thrown for a loop. 

As recently as this Christmas I was showing off the miracle of component versus composite cable to my family members with SD DVD players and newly purchased HDTVs. 

I forget where I read it, but someone described Blu-ray as "training wheels" for digital downloads. :lol:


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

puckhead said:


> While I am of the belief that downloads and physical media will exist together for ~10 more years, I will add that Blu-ray players are not quite at the "just works" phase for those not so technically inclined. HDMI handshakes, firmware updates, lossless audio formats, 24p modes, etc are just a few of the hurdles that come with the enjoyment of being Blu.


I have 2 BD units - they just work (and have since day one).

I have 4 nearby friends who have Blu Ray units - they just work (without issues).

Never heard of any of these units with a single HDMI issue - and all have had routine firmware updates, and lossless is working perfectly. This includes units ranging from price tags from $128 to $699.

So hurdles? Hardly.



> ...someone described Blu-ray as "training wheels" for digital downloads. :lol:


Obviously "someone" has never been on a bike before, let alone ever used Blu Ray. 

As for the digital downloads....that's currently the kind technology that has shown some of the most inconsistent performance and unpredictable results.

It would appear that last quote should be the other way around.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

puckhead said:


> I forget where I read it, but someone described Blu-ray as "training wheels" for digital downloads.


Classic :lol::lol:


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## paulman182 (Aug 4, 2006)

Stuart Sweet said:


> Again, Mr. Fowler, I ask if that "Interstate" runs through the legal, or illegal, part of town. I submit that if you're getting all this content illegally that your argument is both ethically questionable and untenable for the long term.


Silence speaks volumes, Mr. Sweet.


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

Another problem with digital downloads. Who has "everything"? Youcan get some from Netflix, some from Hulu, there's also YouTube (sort of), a variety of network on-line sites, etc, etc, etc.

For Blu-ray, in it's simplest form, you go to Best Buy. If you're a little more technically oriented, you can go to DeepDiscount or Amazon. At all three places, the availability works out to pretty much EVERYTHING that is put out.

There's going to have to be a Meeting of The Minds - and a LOT of minds - for digital downloads to take over. One thing in it's favor is that the studios have LONG wanted a pay-per-view model and DD could do that, but I think that would doom any effort to failure.


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## Hutchinshouse (Sep 28, 2006)

deltafowler said:


> Ha ha!
> I guess that depends on whether or not you have access to the Autobahn or a trail behind your house. :lol:
> Me, "I've got an Interstate running through my front yard", so I've got little use for the blu-ray bicycle. I need that Ferrari, and that's a fat pipe and some nifty tools to get to the good stuff  Ain't that America!


Enough with the John Mellencamp references. I too have the option to download movies. However, I don't steal.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

paulman182 said:


> Silence speaks volumes, Mr. Sweet.


A non-denial denial...


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## puckhead (Sep 22, 2007)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> I have 2 BD units - they just work (and have since day one).
> 
> I have 4 nearby friends who have Blu Ray units - they just work (without issues).
> 
> Never heard of any of these units with a single HDMI issue - and all have had routine firmware updates, and lossless is working perfectly. This includes units ranging from price tags from $128 to $699.


I am pleased for you and your friends. Anecdotal evidence aside, I don't believe I'm stretching too much stating that some consumers may have issues as I described. Think of those "flashing 12:00" people from the VHS days.



hdtvfan0001 said:


> Obviously "someone" has never been on a bike before, let alone ever used Blu Ray.
> 
> As for the digital downloads....that's currently the kind technology that has shown some of the most inconsistent performance and unpredictable results.
> 
> It would appear that last quote should be the other way around.


Here's (<LINK) where I read it.



> At an HDTV confab last fall, Warner Bros.' vice president of High-Definition Media Development likened HD packaged media to a set of training wheels for digital downloads.
> 
> "We can use HD discs to train consumers to move into digital, but it's a transition," said Warner Bros.' Dan Silverberg. "Downloaded content will come, but the consumer will get quicker tutorial into video-on-demand, etc., by owning a Blu-ray player or HD-DVD."


I honestly hope Blu-ray has a long future. I've enjoyed HD-DVD and Blu-Ray for about a year and a half and absolutely love it. I'm only pointing out that mainstream consumers may have a hard time with even the most streamlined interfaces, let alone something _relatively_ complicated like blu-ray. It only takes a moment in the AVS Blu-ray section to discover that a significant number of people have had trouble. I am by no means sounding the downfall of Blu-ray.


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

I do think Blu-Ray will hang around, and it will get even easier than DVD players. Sure, you can poke around with advanced settings all you want, but I doubt it will be long before all the HDMI and sound issues are dealt with, and then it will simply be a matter of plugging the Blu-Ray player into a TV or AVR and you're done. 

Another thing they're going to have to deal with... because we're still in the early phases of adoption, a lot of players need frequent updating. I expect this to be less frequent, and less of a concern over time.


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## puckhead (Sep 22, 2007)

Stuart Sweet said:


> I do think Blu-Ray will hang around, and it will get even easier than DVD players. Sure, you can poke around with advanced settings all you want, but I doubt it will be long before all the HDMI and sound issues are dealt with, and then it will simply be a matter of plugging the Blu-Ray player into a TV or AVR and you're done.
> 
> Another thing they're going to have to deal with... because we're still in the early phases of adoption, a lot of players need frequent updating. I expect this to be less frequent, and less of a concern over time.


I completely agree. I was merely pointing out we have a little ways to go to get to the "just works" stage as you describe.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

puckhead said:


> I completely agree. I was merely pointing out we have a little ways to go to get to the "just works" stage as you describe.


Agree with Stuart as well.

From a mass market perspective....it "just works" 90% of the time, which is actually much better than VHS did for the first 3 years of its existence (or even standard DVD for that matter)...heck..there are still some folks out there who couldn't figure out how to get the flashing *12:00 *off their VHS player front panel...

Blu Ray is proving to be much more plug and play than that.


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## Button Pusher (Jan 19, 2007)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> Agree with Stuart as well.
> 
> From a mass market perspective....it "just works" 90% of the time, which is actually much better than VHS did for the first 3 years of its existence (or even standard DVD for that matter)...heck..there are still some folks out there who couldn't figure out how to get the flashing *12:00 *off their VHS player front panel...
> 
> Blu Ray is proving to be much more plug and play than that.


I know some of those people with the flashing clock issue!


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## rudeney (May 28, 2007)

puckhead said:


> While I am of the belief that downloads and physical media will exist together for ~10 more years, I will add that Blu-ray players are not quite at the "just works" phase for those not so technically inclined. HDMI handshakes, firmware updates, lossless audio formats, 24p modes, etc are just a few of the hurdles that come with the enjoyment of being Blu. Perhaps these features are not such a huge issue for DBSTalkers, but the average consumer may be thrown for a loop.


I see no real differences here than with DVD. For example, many people bought DVD players and plugged the yellow, red and white cables into their TV's AUX input and were all set. Others used component video out to 480p capable TV's and digital out to surround sound processors, etc. BD is the same. Many people will simply plug the HDMI cable (or, some may even just use the yellow, red and white cables) into the TV. Others will worry about setting everything to 24fps and using the right digital audio decoders, etc.

As for the software upgrade issues, guess what? We had those with DVD! I have an old Sony DVD player that refuses to play about half of all Disney DVD's. And it's not user upgradeable. At least with BD, they have given the consumer the ability to overcome these problems if or when they occur.



> As recently as this Christmas I was showing off the miracle of component versus composite cable to my family members with SD DVD players and newly purchased HDTVs.


And that goes right to my point - BD is really in the same "just works" category as DVD. It's the "techno geeks" that are going to obsess over the connections and settings.



> I forget where I read it, but someone described Blu-ray as "training wheels" for digital downloads. :lol:


And you think digital downloads fall into the "just works" category? Unless you are talking about pirated content, the legally download-able videos are much more difficult for "mom and pop" to deal with than BD. I mean, how many average users have a PC that's capable of HDMI handshaking with their TV? In fact, just go look at some of the DIRECTV2PC issues on the forum and you'll quickly see how complex an issue it is to stream HD content from a PC.

No, I say BD is ready for primetime plug-and-play. More so than digital downloads.


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

If anything, digital downloads should make BR *better*. The competition (since BR was first embraced by techno-geek early adopters) should bring BR prices down and keep the content coming.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

I've seen more Blu Ray movies discounted below the $17 price line in the past 30 days than at any time before....

By this next holiday season, $10 - $14 Blu ray movies will be commonplace.

In addition, there are now over 35 Blu Ray dedicated players out there, either on retailers' shelves or else showing up within the next 30-60 days. Many of these are/will be selling for sub $250.

Despte a bad economy, which is impacting anything and everything being sold on the market....there continues to be increased traction and revenue from Blu Ray each month....


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## dave29 (Feb 18, 2007)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> I've seen more Blu Ray movies discounted below the $17 price line in the past 30 days than at any time before....
> 
> By this next holiday season, $10 - $14 Blu ray movies will be commonplace.
> 
> ...


i totally agree. and just add, to my surprise, walmart.com has very,very good blu ray disc prices.($10-$25)


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

dave29 said:


> i totally agree. and just add, to my surprise, walmart.com has very,very good blu ray disc prices.($10-$25)


Very true.

If you are willing to spend any bit of time "shopping"...good prices on Blu Ray disks and players are not that hard to find...

One recent trend I've seen as well is that more and more new releases are coming out at the same time as the standard DVD...with only a $3-$5 price difference.

Disney's "Bolt" will be released on both formats the same day...


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## dettxw (Nov 21, 2007)

dave29 said:


> i totally agree. and just add, to my surprise, walmart.com has very,very good blu ray disc prices.($10-$25)


Are they making special "Fullscreen" Blu-ray versions for walmart? :lol:


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## dave29 (Feb 18, 2007)

dettxw said:


> Are they making special "Fullscreen" Blu-ray versions for walmart? :lol:


ha ha, i wouldnt put anyting past wal mart:lol:


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## dave29 (Feb 18, 2007)

hdtvfan0001 said:


> Very true.
> 
> If you are willing to spend any bit of time "shopping"...good prices on Blu Ray disks and players are not that hard to find...


very true as well

i'm pretty sure that i have never spent over $25 for a BD, and that was a new release at a brick and mortar store. most of my BD's have been aquired for $10-$15 and as low as $8. all relatively new.

i have 3 standalone BD players, a PS3, and 2 HTPC's with BD drives. all aquired at good prices. 2 of my standalones are sony 350's purchased late 2008 for $149 each.

there are deals to be had


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

For those of you who do like Blu Ray....

...you can go to this site and save a few bucks on some recent Sony Blu Ray movies...in addition to your local store price discounts...

Shop away...for a limited time only...

http://www.sonypictures.com/homevideo/specialoffers/

Click on the link in the upper left for a bunch of coupons at your local retailer.


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## Brandon428 (Mar 21, 2007)

I wish people would quit saying Blu-ray is dying.


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## deltafowler (Aug 28, 2007)

Brandon428 said:


> I wish people would quit saying Blu-ray is dying.


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## hdtvfan0001 (Jul 28, 2004)

Brandon428 said:


> I wish people would quit saying Blu-ray is dying.


Informed people know better and disregard that misinformation.


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