# The DTV transition - observations



## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

My mother in law is visiting until the monday after Thanksgiving. What little TV she does watch at home (Kansas City) is OTA. I was rather surprised that she knew quite a bit about the digital transition, and the converter boxes that will be needed. I did clear up a few points for her, but overall, I was rather impressed on how much of a handle she had on it. I guess at least one of the KC stations is also broadcasting PSA's (like my local WRAL).

Point being - all of us cynics who "know" what is coming about (Joe Sixpack not knowing about this until Febuary 19, 2009, then complaining when his screen turns into snow and he doesn't have a converter box) maybe in for a pleasant surprise.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

I honestly truely believe.

That by Mid 2008... Converter Boxes will have to be at a price point, and in quanties... that they can be sold just about everywhere.

At the CheckOut lines at the local grocery store, Home Depot, Walgreens, WalMart, Target... Ads in TVGuide, and almost made a standard part of evening news broadcasts (like right after the weather, a reminder about the change).

That is a LOT of systems that have to get out there and setup...

All I know... Is I plan to get my name out there somehow, and do it as a side business for the last part of 2008... Even if it is $25 a pop to setup an entire house.... that could be some good extra cash...


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

I think that is going to be a pretty short-term business (at best), with just about zero slack for problems. And there is no way you can afford the antennas / cables at $25 a pop - your pricing will have to be $25 + supplies as needed.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

scooper said:


> I think that is going to be a pretty short-term business (at best), with just about zero slack for problems. And there is no way you can afford the antennas / cables at $25 a pop - your pricing will have to be $25 + supplies as needed.


Oh... most certainly they would have to pay for what ever supplies would be necessary.... I am just talking about comming and hooking it all up, and spending some time explaining how it will work.

And yes... very much a short-term... high demand opportunity.
Not looking to replace my career with it...


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

As Earl says though, there's a real short term profit potential for areas with high OTA penetration. In my area, cable and satellite penetration is about 85%.


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## jpl (Jul 9, 2006)

I think alot of people know it's coming, but don't really understand what the heck it means. I think the FCC has done a horrid job of this. Not only should they be telling people what's coming, and when, but they also need to answer the question of "what will this mean to me?" That last part is really deficient. The other day, we had a cub scout meeting (for my son's den) at the house of one of the other kids. The kid's father was telling us about how he was getting set to turn his one work-room into a home theater. He has two older TVs (11 years old), and he seemed to know what he wanted in that new room (50" plasma). I asked him when he planned on doing all that (the room was bare concrete floor with exposed studs for now). He said something like "well, I HAVE to do it before 2009 because my other TVs will be useless..." I said "no, that's not correct... do you have cable?" He said "yeah, I do" I said "then it all depends on what Comcast decides to give you - that cutover is only for over-the-air broadcasts." He seemed genuinely perplexed by my response.

To me this cutover is like the Y2K bug - only more people were aware of the Y2K bug this close to that turn-over. I mean that people are aware that there's this issue lurking out there, and they have some idea that it's tied to some date and time, but they have no idea, beyond that, what it means. Since I'm in the IT field, when relatives and friends who aren't techincally inclined started hearing about Y2K, I got peppered with lots of questions about it. What it would mean... how bad it would be... but most of all the question I got was "what is it? explain the bug to me." I had to keep it kinda simple (although I thought that issue was pretty easy to understand) or I would lose people (I'd see the glazed look in their eyes telling me that I just went over their heads). Not that these people were stupid - not by any stretch. But they just didn't have enough first-hand information to know what the problem really was.

I see this cutover in much the same way... except, like I said, more people seemed to be aware of the Y2K bug (even though they couldn't articulate what that bug was if they tried), and unlike Y2K, I think this cutover really will catch alot of people by surprise.


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## Upstream (Jul 4, 2006)

Starting Jan 2008, the Dept of Commerce will be offering all household two $40 coupons for converter boxes. 

Once those coupons are available, you will see a lot more information about what everyone needs to do to prepare for 2009. You will also see lots of advertisements for the converter boxes, which I expect will be priced at $40.


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

I believe you have to sign something saying that you don't have cable, IPTV or satellite to get those coupons.


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## Upstream (Jul 4, 2006)

I thought that they initially proposed limiting coupons to households without cable or satallite, but eliminated that requirement.


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## JTBenson (Jan 4, 2005)

Stuart Sweet said:


> I believe you have to sign something saying that you don't have cable, IPTV or satellite to get those coupons.


I know many people with satellite that still get their locals OTA and don't have a receiver that gets a digital signal.


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## Upstream (Jul 4, 2006)

JTBenson said:


> I know many people with satellite that still get their locals OTA and don't have a receiver that gets a digital signal.


That is part of the reason I think they eliminated the requirement that coupons only go to houses without cable/sat. Also, they had no easy way to validate or enforce the requirement, so it was cheaper to eliminate the requirement.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

Absolutely - requiring proof that US residents were NOT cable subs was unworkable.


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## AntAltMike (Nov 21, 2004)

Earl Bonovich said:


> ...I plan to get my name out there somehow, and do it as a side business for the last part of 2008... Even if it is $25 a pop to setup an entire house.... that could be some good extra cash...


I can't drive to a house for $25. I get $50 plus a one hour minimum labor charge of $75.

I stopped doing residential offair antenna installation several years ago. The customers, most of whom had DBS satellite installations, believe that if they can get those dishes installed for free, then an off-air antenna instalaltion shouldn't cost that much more.

I think I was charging about $260 for a fixed, non-amplified suburban antenna installation and adding at least a hundred for a rotor, but I wasn't even making any money at those prices. If you are a "low cost" installer (private contractor, negligible office overhead) in a market situation where all of the transmitters come from one farm, and where they all are UHF or maybe 7-51, and if they don't need preamplification, and if you don't have line of sight problems, and if you don't expect to be constrained from optimal mounting by the customer, then you might be able to make money at a hundred and a half to $200 for a 4-bay bowtie or small Yagi, but I couldn't do it for that price.

And by the way, you will also have tail responsibility for all the times that the receiver locks up, or the picture stutters, etc., etc.


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## dervari (Dec 1, 2005)

Upstream said:


> Starting Jan 2008, the Dept of Commerce will be offering all household two $40 coupons for converter boxes.


Is this being financed by tax dollars or revenue from FCC licensing fees, etc? I really don't like the idea of my tax dollars going to a program that makes sure someone won't miss Survivor or Deal or No Deal.


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

Agreed, but...

the RF spectrum is a natural resource and the people have the right to use it. Sometimes in order to help new technologies along it's necessary to subsidize them a bit.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

dervari said:


> Is this being financed by tax dollars or revenue from FCC licensing fees, etc? I really don't like the idea of my tax dollars going to a program that makes sure someone won't miss Survivor or Deal or No Deal.


There are a couple ways to make this happen. A one-time forced conversion or a much longer-term, protracted switchout thru attrition (that would take another 10 years, btw.)

I think of this as the cost of "doing business", selling the newly available frequencies which nets the government more money by giving the coupons away.

Besides, the FCC itself is our tax dollars at work so we can watch _Survivor_. At least have standards so we can watch our favorite shows. 

Happy Holidays!
Tom


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

Stuart Sweet said:


> I believe you have to sign something saying that you don't have cable, IPTV or satellite to get those coupons.


Is there a check box for your satellite being an HR21?


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

dervari said:


> Is this being financed by tax dollars or revenue from FCC licensing fees, etc? I really don't like the idea of my tax dollars going to a program that makes sure someone won't miss Survivor or Deal or No Deal.


You do realize the importance of OTA for emergency situations and news, right?

Besides, you want to start riots, take away people's TV.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

Not for the first $990 million worth of the coupons - which is approximatly the first 2.475 million coupons....


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## Stuart Sweet (Jun 19, 2006)

tonyd79 said:


> Is there a check box for your satellite being an HR21?


I was corrected... apparently that was the initial idea but now anyone can get the coupon who wants it, that's what I was told.


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## AntAltMike (Nov 21, 2004)

Is there anything in the law precluding the consumer electronic chains from incorporating those coupons into a combined discount offer, like, the way that some grocery stores offer to double the redemption value of manufacturer's coupons? Maybe they could allow them to be cooncurrently redeemed for additional $100 off on old, new-stock, NTSC TVs in consoles that you can put your doileys and family photos on.


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## Cholly (Mar 22, 2004)

AntAltMike said:


> Is there anything in the law precluding the consumer electronic chains from incorporating those coupons into a combined discount offer, like, the way that some grocery stores offer to double the redemption value of manufacturer's coupons? Maybe they could allow them to be cooncurrently redeemed for additional $100 off on old, new-stock, NTSC TVs in consoles that you can put your doileys and family photos on.


Consoles pretty much disappeared from the market several years ago, and NTSC receivers have been clearanced around a year or two ago, so that's not likely to happen.


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## Jim5506 (Jun 7, 2004)

Coupons are HIGHLY restricted as to what they can and cannot be used for.

No units with HDMI, Component, Firewire or other high capacity outputs. No units with displays, hard drives, ability to record anything or many other useful options.

Mostly just plain vanilla ATSC to NTSC conversion with RF or composite outputs (does allow stereo audio) and remote control.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

The first 22 million coupons are available on the honor system. Anyone can request them. You are asked if you have Some/all TVs on a pay TV system or none on pay TV.

The rest of the coupons will be for people who do not subscribe to pay TV.

Nielsen believes that about 13% of the households do not subscribe to pay TV at all.

Article at yahoo: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/digital_tv

Happy HD New Year!
Tom


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## owensdj (Feb 11, 2007)

Can DTV converter boxes down convert a 720p/1080i broadcast to 480i?


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

Yes. That's the part and parcel of the conversion process. Depending on display options, the convertor box may let you see it in centercut fullscreen or in letterbox, depending on the software in the individual boxes.


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## koji68 (Jun 21, 2004)

Interesting article about the DTV transition next steps:

http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/news/2008/01/auction_faq


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