# GAO report: DTV Transiition might fail



## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/tvstations/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003684250


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## HIPAR (May 15, 2005)

This study/report is about a year premature.

--- CHAS


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

Agreed - I'd say more like 2 years too early.


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## leww37334 (Sep 19, 2005)

Does anyone really know what percent of the population is affected? The best numbers I have seen say that 80%+ of households use cable or satellite. I'm betting that some part of the remaining 20% already have digital tuner TV's. 

And as for people not being notified about the switch, our local TV stations do a story every other week on the transition. Wal Mart has placards posted all over the TV/VCR section that explain it. 

Why is it that no Government give away program is ever big enough?

Also to say the transition might fail is really a misdirection. The transition will be fine, you can bet that at least a month before the transition all the stations will carry PSA's saying they will no longer be broadcasting an analog signal as of the transition date. A few people may not find out about it until they turn on their TV's for the first time in six months, but that does not mean the transition failed.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

A month before it happens for the PSAs ?!? 
What rock are you living under ?

Starting in Febuary 2008, EVERY STATION will be required to dedicate 2 30 second PSA (Public service announcements) EVERY DAY, one in PRIME TIME, to explain what is going on. Some stations (more than I realized apparently) are ALREADY doing some PSAs on this.


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## aspicer (Dec 29, 2007)

Anybody that doesn't know by the end of 2008 - probably wouldn't know or wouldn't "get it" no matter what they did.

Put the PSA's on during the Soap Operas during the day, All the of the News Broadcast Times, and during Prime Time TV.

After that it's up to Satellite and Cable to sell those remaining people on SOMETHING via US Mail. When they get their INCOME TAX REFUND and their SS CHECKS include something in there. Then they can't say they didn't see it.

Talk about your "Long Tail" strategy !!!!! ;-)

---
Alan Spicer
www dot marinetelecom dot net


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

It is still going to be one of those things...

It won't "fail" as in it won't work.

It is going to be a difficult time, and the transition isn't going to go smoothly.
but short of going to everyone's home (like when doing a census) the information simply isn't going to get to everyone.


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## lwilli201 (Dec 22, 2006)

With the freed up bandwidth being auctioned off, it has to work. There is no turning back.


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## Steve Mehs (Mar 21, 2002)

leww37334 said:


> Does anyone really know what percent of the population is affected? The best numbers I have seen say that 80%+ of households use cable or satellite. I'm betting that some part of the remaining 20% already have digital tuner TV's.


The latest Nielsen numbers show 112.8 Million TV households in America. According to a SkyReport article from earlier this year cable TV accounts for 64% of all TV homes, or 72.2 Million households. Dish Network and DirecTV have a combined 29.9 Million subscribers. Total 102.1 Million Pay TV subscribers who won't be affected.

Like I've said before, this whole digital TV translation thing is completely overblown. Right off the bat nearly 91% of America won't be affected. The remaining 9% will deplete over the next 13 months. The digital transition will not be a big deal.


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## leww37334 (Sep 19, 2005)

scooper said:


> A month before it happens for the PSAs ?!?
> What rock are you living under ?
> 
> Starting in Febuary 2008, EVERY STATION will be required to dedicate 2 30 second PSA (Public service announcements) EVERY DAY, one in PRIME TIME, to explain what is going on. Some stations (more than I realized apparently) are ALREADY doing some PSAs on this.


Kinda my point, even us rock people already know about the DTV transition.:lol: :lol: :lol:


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

We have interesting, debatable statistics coming from several sources. CEA says 50% of households have at least one digital TV now. Woohoo!

FCC says that at least 85% of households are covered for the transition via cable, satellite, or digital TVs in place. That was a key trigger to the countdown.

Steve Meh's math, fairly accurate, IMHO, tho still lacking clarification of dual cable/satellite homes. I don't know how big a number that might lower his total, but the general magnitude seems correct.

Yet, DIRECTV and Dish are already warning the FCC that if stations don't start to commit to a transition plan IMMEDIATELY, some LILs will go dark as they can't hook everyone up on the last day. (My suspicions are that even some cable companies could have problems should stations wait too long to work out suitable solutions...)

Bestbuy and Circuit City are ramping up their info. Local stations are promoting the transition already and will do more as soon as the coupon program is ready.

At the end of the day, will some people have problems? You betcha. How many is the real issue. More than 10, I'm sure. Less than 50 million. Somewhere in there are points one could call "failure", "debacle", "annoyance", and "success". Which will reality be closest too? I'm guessing "annoyance" depending on how the FCC forces stations to work with cable and satellite.

I highly doubt "failure", that seems way too extreme.

Happy New Year!
Tom


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

Somewhere between 1 household and 112 million households will lose the ability to watch TV in February 2009.

Dish is running PSAs across all the channels they can (with Chairman Martin telling the story). I'm also seeing PSAs on local stations. I expect that by mid year we'll all be shouting at the screen during those PSAs ... "we know, get on with it!".

How the final days of transition go is up to the stations. The only rule is that full power stations cannot transmit in analog after that date. The FCC is not _requiring_ them to remain on the air up to that moment. How stations will make the transition from DTV on a temporary channel to DTV on their permanent channel will also affect the transition. LP/CA stations can stay on the air in analog after the "transition" date.

There is a storm coming ... the end of 2008 will be interesting as stations make their own plans and work with cable and satellite to make sure their signals are still available. Hopefully stations will be smart and decide that carriage is better than absence and not blow off their audience holding out for a better deal.

I also hope that EVERY analog station spends it's last two to three months on the air with an on screen banner specifically stating their last day of analog broadcasting. Probably too much to ask ... but if the station is on one day and off the next without a 24/7 message on the screen there will be a lot of annoyed viewers.

I don't expect the transition to be totally smooth ... but I agree with Tom that "failure" is not likely --- nor is it an option.

BTW: What I am looking for is portable ATSC TVs. Cable, Satellite and $40 tuner boxes help out at home, but what about taking TV to the beach and all those mini-van TV systems? Do they do ATSC?


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

Y2K! Y2K!

Same doomsday predictions.

I've seen PSAs in Baltimore already. They were funny. Telling you you can get your TV for FREE! (It seemed more of a commercial for OTA than a PSA.)


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## Steve Mehs (Mar 21, 2002)

> I also hope that EVERY analog station spends it's last two to three months on the air with an on screen banner specifically stating their last day of analog broadcasting. Probably too much to ask ... but if the station is on one day and off the next without a 24/7 message on the screen there will be a lot of annoyed viewers.


Oh god I hope not! Over the air networks already have too much on screen crap like stupid weather warnings, advertisements for upcoming shows and bugs. Any more garbage comes on my screen, screw it, I'll buy my shows on DVD.

If you don't know about the transition until three months before it happens, after all the years of press and increasing awareness, you deserve to lose access.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

Steve, I'm suggesting the banners be put on the ANALOG feeds ... not digital feeds that would remain.

Let the late adopters see more junk on the screen. By the last two to three months the "rest of us" are going to be digital ready anyways.


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## Steve Mehs (Mar 21, 2002)

Okay, thanks for clearing that up, I'm cool with that


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

James - Best Buy has a couple (5 inch and 7 inch) portable TVs, ATSC tuners, and 100 minute NiMH built in batteries available on their website. Mobile reception leaves something to be desired, at least with the built in antenna. They may work better with an external antenna.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

The PSAs I've seen are more of a "the transition is coming, go to our website for additional information". They also make the point that it is those viewers who receive the channels OTA that have the issue - not cable / DBS subs.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

scooper said:


> James - Best Buy has a couple (5 inch and 7 inch) portable TVs, ATSC tuners, and 100 minute NiMH built in batteries available on their website. Mobile reception leaves something to be desired, at least with the built in antenna. They may work better with an external antenna.


Hopefully someone else will enter the market ... especially since the one's Best Buy is selling are their private brand (what will Circuit City and WalMart sell?). Get some competition going and get the prices under $100 (preferably under $75).

Even larger "portables" such as a 13" would be nice. It's bad enough that people have to replace their TVs ... there need to be TVs out there to replace the ones people have - not just the bigger sets. And they need to be readily available.

I'll be happy when I can walk into any store selling TVs and see the same basic selection I saw a couple of years ago but 100% digital ready.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

James Long said:


> ...
> BTW: What I am looking for is portable ATSC TVs. Cable, Satellite and $40 tuner boxes help out at home, but what about taking TV to the beach and all those mini-van TV systems? Do they do ATSC?


Saw some 5 and 7 inch units at BB under the Insignia brand.

Also have started to see some 13" units with and without DVD at Walmart.

Happy HD New Year!
Tom


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## Drew2k (Aug 16, 2006)

tonyd79 said:


> Y2K! Y2K!
> 
> Same doomsday predictions.
> 
> I've seen PSAs in Baltimore already. They were funny. Telling you you can get your TV for FREE! (It seemed more of a commercial for OTA than a PSA.)


Everyone laughs at the Y2K doomsday predictions now, but I will say that if my employer didn't make the big deal out of it that they did starting in late 1997, and if we didn't go through hundreds of programs in my shop alone (let alone the rest of our development shops around the nation), well - we would have had problems. We were updating programs old and new, including ones that hadn't been touched in 10 years, and it was because we took the doomsday predictions to heart that we tackled the issue head-on and had no problems on 01/01/2000.

I've already seen some PSAs about the DTV transition and agree they need to be there and there needs to be more of them. There needs to be ads in TV Guide and newspaper TV listings to alert everyone with OTA what's coming. The more publicity this gets the better, and if there are no problems in 2009, then the PSAs and publicity worked. Who doesn't want that?


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## Jon Ellis (Dec 28, 2003)

By the most recent figures I saw, it's 11% of households using an antenna. That's a pretty small proportion, but keep in mind it represents millions of people who will be very upset if their TV doesn't work anymore.

There are a lot of factors that could cause problems:
1) A lot of people who have cable or satellite don't seem to realize that they're not affected. The PSA's that are running don't make this clear. The official website tells people to "contact their provider" rather than just tell them they are not affected. Many news reports have also not been clear on this subject. And even in households which do have cable/satellite, there may be some TV's that just use an antenna.
2) People may not be able to figure out how to hook up and program their convertor box. We take this for granted here because we're all electronics geeks , but remember there are a lot of people out there who never could figure out how to set the time on their VCR. (I work at a UHF TV station and we regularly get calls from people who say they can't get us. It's always because their TV is in cable mode, and it often takes 5-10 minutes talking them through how to fix it.)
3) Indoor DTV reception is a little tricker than analog. I live within a mile of all of my local stations, and the antenna still needs to be in one precise position to get reception of all the stations. And some of them still cut out when my neighbors walk up the stairs. Some of my friends haven't been able to get any DTV reception in their apartments even though they get watchable analog signals.
4) Some DTV channels will be changing after the transition in 2009, as many stations move DTV broadcasts to their heritage analog channel. People who thought they had their receivers all set up will have to program them again.
5) The whole convertor box coupon program has the potential for boondoggle written all over it. Will people know how to get the coupons? Will they get them in a timely manner? Will clerks know how to accept them? Many won't be happy that the coupons don't cover the entire cost of the box.
6) As mentioned in a previous post, low-power and translator stations are not included in the mandatory conversion. People in rural areas served by translators will hook up their convertor boxes and find out they don't get all the major networks. Someone will have to explain to them how to flip between analog and digital.
7) Many people who live 60-70 miles away from the transmitter get adequate VHF analog reception but will not be able to pull in UHF DTV stations, especially if they live in a wooded area. They may be able to get VHF DTV after the transition on those channels that move to VHF. (My family's cabin is 68 miles from the Minneapolis towers and 65 miles from the Duluth towers. We get 9 analog VHF channels, but no UHF and no DTV. After the transition we will probably get 4 VHF DTV channels.)

And can anyone explain why they waited until ten years into the transition to begin selling the convertor boxes?


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## kb7oeb (Jun 16, 2004)

None of my subscribed dish channels carry Dish ads so youtube to the rescue. 




As someone who gets their digital locals OTA and has for a while what I see as a problem is half of my local stations are changing back to their old analog channels. I'm doubting thats going to happen over night so how many stations are going to be totally off air during that transition? The stations moving are going to have to tell people who are already digital to rescan.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Jon Ellis said:


> By the most recent figures I saw, it's 11% of households using an antenna. That's a pretty small proportion, but keep in mind it represents millions of people who will be very upset if their TV doesn't work anymore.
> 
> There are a lot of factors that could cause problems:
> 1) A lot of people who have cable or satellite don't seem to realize that they're not affected. The PSA's that are running don't make this clear. The official website tells people to "contact their provider" rather than just tell them they are not affected. Many news reports have also not been clear on this subject. And even in households which do have cable/satellite, there may be some TV's that just use an antenna.
> ...


To get the manufacturers to bring the cost into the range of the $40 the coupon will cover. In that time the manufacturers were able to develop OTA tuner technology and go thru the normal High End, middle, and low price manufacturing cycles and improving the technology all along.

The manufacturers warned adding a tuner to a device would be in excess of $250 in cost (probably true for all of 1 month when they first came out), but as we see now, the cost of a digital tuner 13" TV is nearly the same as it was for an analogue one last year.

So Congress and the FCC wanted this to be as smooth as possible, which meant taking a long time from when it was envisioned to fruition, the next major milestone being February 17, 2009.

After that, the rest of the transition will be the continued evolution of the cable networks.

Happy New Year!
Tom


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

Tom Robertson said:


> Saw some 5 and 7 inch units at BB under the Insignia brand.
> 
> Also have started to see some 13" units with and without DVD at Walmart.
> 
> ...


On Feb. 17th 2009 some smuck in Iowa will turn his TV and scratch his his head & fool with the rabbit ears. My cousin is one. She says "they can't do it.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

I'm glad we convinced you otherwise, Paul.  I've been using that example of your's in other places as well.


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## Mikey (Oct 26, 2004)

I'm sure glad my E* receiver has an antenna input and an ATSC tuner. I predict that a LOT of the Oklahoma City stations won't be up on the satellite for months after the analog cutoff. Not so with cable. Cox has almost all the digital stations that are on the air now.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

The more money that the gummint throws at a problem, the more likely it is to fail. Congress allocated enough to this to insure that the entire project will likely pass un-noticed in much the same way that the mandated conversion to the metric system went.

If they had given the task to me, I think I could have got it done for about 1% of what Congress set aside and we'd be ready to go by the end of 2008. Part of my plan would be that any station without a plan and license approvals by February 19, 2008 will be fined a tidy sum per day for failure to comply. At the end of August 2008, proceedings would begin to revoke the licenses of non-compliant stations and service areas adjusted to compensate.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

I don't expect things to go perfectly smooth in the last 2 months before analog goes dark either - but I intend to be ready to get my locals OTA digital regardless. I do expect to have to do multiple channel scans on all the ATSC tuners until things finally get settled out...


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## HIPAR (May 15, 2005)

I predict the major problem will be the viewers who can't receive DTV because they have inadequate antennas. 

Many stations are going UHF. I have always found UHF reception to be problematic..

--- CHAS


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Yahoo article about the new coupons also mentions that Nielsen estimates 13% of households do not have have pay TV service, or 14.3 million households. The article also refers to the GAO report and says only $5M of the $1.5B held back for the transition costs go to education. More info at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/digital_tv

Happy New Year!
Tom


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## HIPAR (May 15, 2005)

The FCC just released this long, drawn out bureaucratic document pertaining to the DTV transition.

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/FCC-07-228A1.pdf

Not quite as harsh as harsh's plan but similar in spirit.

--- CHAS


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## Paul Secic (Dec 16, 2003)

scooper said:


> I'm glad we convinced you otherwise, Paul.  I've been using that example of your's in other places as well.


Boy am I glad you convinced me. The picture is crystal clear. On EquatarHD you can hear birds chip, and my hearing in my right ear has been going bad since 2001.


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## leww37334 (Sep 19, 2005)

HIPAR said:


> I predict the major problem will be the viewers who can't receive DTV because they have inadequate antennas.
> 
> Many stations are going UHF. I have always found UHF reception to be problematic..
> 
> --- CHAS


There may be another potential problem, in my area a few of the digital stations are broadcasting at power levels well below their analog assignments. I would suspect that people in fringe areas who could receive the analog signal before may find the lower power digital signal won't reach them, Anybody else have any thoughts on this?


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

leww37334 said:


> There may be another potential problem, in my area a few of the digital stations are broadcasting at power levels well below their analog assignments. I would suspect that people in fringe areas who could receive the analog signal before may find the lower power digital signal won't reach them, Anybody else have any thoughts on this?


There are two possibilities. One is if they are still working on a test/construction permit, as our Fox station had been until last year. They finally got the full power permit and have been much more available in the Wasatch valley.

The other is that a VHF channel normally has to broadcast at much higher power levels to get the same coverage as a UHF channel. Many stations that had VHF analogue channel assignments and moved to a UHF digital assignment are broadcasting at much lower power and yet easily covering the same range.

Happy New Year!
Tom


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

Not sure how we missed it (it was issued Dec 11th, before this thread began) but here is the FCC's 99 page response to the GAO Report.

http://hraunfoss.fcc.gov/edocs_public/attachmatch/DOC-278883A2.pdf


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## kb7oeb (Jun 16, 2004)

Tom Robertson said:


> Yahoo article about the new coupons also mentions that Nielsen estimates 13% of households do not have have pay TV service, or 14.3 million households. The article also refers to the GAO report and says only $5M of the $1.5B held back for the transition costs go to education. More info at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071231/ap_on_go_ca_st_pe/digital_tv
> 
> Happy New Year!
> Tom


I subscribe to pay tv service but I don't subscribe to the locals, so OTA matters to me. I don't know if the numbers are accurate but I've read 10% of DBS subs do not subscribe to locals.


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## HIPAR (May 15, 2005)

leww37334 said:


> There may be another potential problem, in my area a few of the digital stations are broadcasting at power levels well below their analog assignments. I would suspect that people in fringe areas who could receive the analog signal before may find the lower power digital signal won't reach them, Anybody else have any thoughts on this?


Analysts who know about these things will tell you that DTV uses the channel spectrum more efficiently and can achieve the same coverage with less power. Assuming all other factors are equal, I have seen figures that claim 50 percent reduction in power is possible.

--- CHAS


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## Geronimo (Mar 23, 2002)

leww37334 said:


> Does anyone really know what percent of the population is affected? The best numbers I have seen say that 80%+ of households use cable or satellite. I'm betting that some part of the remaining 20% already have digital tuner TV's.
> 
> .


I have satellite. I also havea few TVs that are not connected to it. i suspect that I am not unique in that regard.

You can't simply eliminate all cable and satellite households as being unaffected. Wea re not affected as much as a home that is exclusively OTA but we may still be affected


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

HIPAR said:


> Analysts who know about these things will tell you that DTV uses the channel spectrum more efficiently and can achieve the same coverage with less power. Assuming all other factors are equal, I have seen figures that claim 50 percent reduction in power is possible.


Coverage is related to power. Cutting power cuts coverage. The efficiency gains come from placing more than one channel on a frequency. That means digital and that means reduced PQ.

For those who have lost sight, call someone on a wireless phone and then call them back on a land line. The difference is often staggering.


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## FTA Michael (Jul 21, 2002)

Geronimo said:


> I have satellite. I also havea few TVs that are not connected to it. i suspect that I am not unique in that regard.


Yup. I was just at my mom's house. She's got Dish covering her primary TVs, but she's got a 20-year-old 5-inch B&W set down in the basement where she paints.

Do they still make in-home wireless TV broadcasters? You could hook up one of those to a satellite receiver output and use it to spoon-feed those ancient OTA sets.


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## Tom Robertson (Nov 15, 2005)

Geronimo said:


> I have satellite. I also havea few TVs that are not connected to it. i suspect that I am not unique in that regard.
> 
> You can't simply eliminate all cable and satellite households as being unaffected. Wea re not affected as much as a home that is exclusively OTA but we may still be affected


The first 22 million coupons do not limit people who have cable or satellite in the home. Only the coupons beyond the first group sound as if they will be more closely reviewed.

Happy New Year!
Tom


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

I would suggest you hurry - my mother in law just put her request in about 25 minutes ago - and her request number is between 522,000 and 523,000 ...


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

# 621,817

https://www.dtv2009.gov/ApplyCoupon.aspx

I have several TVs that are going to become sat only next year without a converter.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

I don't know why, but I feel very confident that the day any American turns on his/her TV and can't get anything, he/she will head down to WalMart that night or day. Might skip eating, but TV?


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## lwilli201 (Dec 22, 2006)

After reading the article, a large omission was any number indicating how many dummies it takes for the transition to be a failure. The whole thing is to complicated? Well it is in a technical sense. There are those that would not understand if you drew them a picture. The doom and gloom is mostly coming from the politicians looking to deflect from their own inability to get anything done. The last I saw there is no law against stupid. But I quess some politcians want the stupid vote. :lol: Slipping the cutoff date by 6 months (as Swanni says will happen) will not make much of a difference. IMHO.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

phrelin said "I don't know why, but I feel very confident that the day any American turns on his/her TV and can't get anything, he/she will head down to WalMart that night or day. Might skip eating, but TV?"

and I'm replying "You're more than likely correct.  "


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

It will take the politicians to slip the date ... with it encoded in law the FCC can't do it by it's own choice. The targets recently announced by the FCC should get the industry there. At least those in the industry who WANT to continue being in the industry. 

Congress will need to act on the satellite carriage issues. The current law seems like a stopgap. The mandate that the FCC is supposed to follow is to make satellite carriage rules equal to cable carriage rules - but the FCC does not have the authority to do that.


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## scooper (Apr 22, 2002)

lwilli201 said:


> After reading the article, a large omission was any number indicating how many dummies it takes for the transition to be a failure. The whole thing is to complicated? Well it is in a technical sense. There are those that would not understand if you drew them a picture. The doom and gloom is mostly coming from the politicians looking to deflect from their own inability to get anything done. The last I saw there is no law against stupid. But I quess some politcians want the stupid vote. :lol: Slipping the cutoff date by 6 months (as Swanni says will happen) will not make much of a difference. IMHO.


The whole thing has been slid too much as it is. At least the earlier slides had a reasonable reason - wait for the technology to get better / cheaper - which it has. Any further delay would be utter nonsense to consider. You should very soon (if not already) (Feb 18, 2008 at the latest) be seeing PSAs on all your local broadcasters about the DTV transition and what the viewers will need to do. At this point - it just needs to be finished.


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## Dave (Jan 29, 2003)

The new boxes will hit the stores some time in Feb. 2008 so they say. They will be available at all the big box stores. Price is suppose to be between $ 60 and $ 75.
Big box stores will include Wal-Mart, Target, Circuit City, Best Buy, Sams Club, Costco, K-Mart, Sears and other large retailers. As has been stated these are going to be the very basic converter boxes. No frills of any kind. The coupons are good for 3 months only.


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## Jon Ellis (Dec 28, 2003)

Tom Robertson said:


> The other is that a VHF channel normally has to broadcast at much higher power levels to get the same coverage as a UHF channel. Many stations that had VHF analogue channel assignments and moved to a UHF digital assignment are broadcasting at much lower power and yet easily covering the same range.


Actually, you have this backwards. It takes more power to get the same coverage on UHF as on VHF. In the analog realm, the maximum power was 100kW for channels 2-6 (VHF low), 316kW for 7-13 (VHF high), and 5000kW for UHF. In digital, 1000kW is the max for UHF...I'm not sure about VHF.

But yes, it is true that many (maybe even most) DTV stations are not currently broadcasting at maximum power.


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