# Netflix CEO Predicts Streaming will Jump Ahead of Cable in 3-5 Years



## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

Here he goes again!

"Netflix CEO Reed Hastings told attendees at the UBS Global Media and Communications Conference in New York that streaming video will grow to replace cable as the viewing option of choice within 3-5 years. In reality, streaming video could leapfrog ahead of cable even sooner than that, but as Netflix gets ready to renew contracts with Hollywood studios, he might want to keep his cards closer to his chest."

Full Story Here


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

I'm sticking with NetFlix, and believe they have more contracts that they will be signing. But what NetFlix must start doing is getting exclusive content, Amazon Prime VOD and HULU have some of the same things as NetFlix. To win this war, you need to be the only Dog in the kennel


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## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

But that is how things will get muddled. Splintering of content will be a nightmare on many levels. Besides the extra cost because we'll have to subscribe to more than 1 or 2 services there's the cost and inconvenience of having to purchase more than one media player to play those different services if there isn't one that plays them all. A nightmare of a spaghetti bowl is on the horizon I fear. At least for the short term.


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

The way I look at it, is it would be the al la carte that cable can't deliver


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## sledgehammer1367066128 (Jun 19, 2011)

I don't know that the content providers want exclusive contracts. Why limit your revenue source to one venue? Why not get money from everywhere?

Like I've said so many time though and most of these articles seem to ignore is that this isn't going to happen until the bandwidth cap/overage issue is addressed. People aren't going to sign up for NF for $8/mo if there's a possibility they could get hit with $50/mo in extra BW charges by their ISP or get their speeds throttled by the 15th each month.


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## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

Sledge Hammer! said:


> I don't know that the content providers want exclusive contracts. Why limit your revenue source to one venue? Why not get money from everywhere?
> 
> Like I've said so many time though and most of these articles seem to ignore is that this isn't going to happen until the bandwidth cap/overage issue is addressed. People aren't going to sign up for NF for $8/mo if there's a possibility they could get hit with $50/mo in extra BW charges by their ISP or get their speeds throttled by the 15th each month.


Well, they do want exclusive contracts, and that's the problem today. Netflix, Amazon, Hulu and YouTube brag about their exclusive content all of the time.

As for the bandwidth issue, I've posted a couple of links recently talking about Charter and Comcast promising not to do that. For the ISP's that do, most allow 250gig, which for most folks is far more than Netflix needs for 8 hours a day every day. Having said that, when IPTV begins to really give cable a run for it's revenue stream (as the Netflix CEO says will happen in 3 to 5 years in another article I link to here), it may get a little dicey price wise for a while.

I believe all of this will get sorted out in the long run, but for the next few years there will be a lot of fighting going on for bandwidth and content, with us, the consumer, caught in the middle.

And then there is the wireless/mobile thing coming. Verizon just bought billions of dollars of wireless spectrum from Comcast. I think wireless technology is going to improve big time in the next five years, and that will have a huge impact on IPTV as well.

This will be both frustrating and fun to watch shake out!


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

Athlon646464 said:


> Well, they do want exclusive contracts, and that's the problem today. Netflix, Amazon, Hulu and YouTube brag about their exclusive content all of the time.
> 
> As for the bandwidth issue, I've posted a couple of links recently talking about Charter and Comcast promising not to do that. For the ISP's that do, most allow 250gig, which for most folks is far more than Netflix needs for 8 hours a day every day. Having said that, when IPTV begins to really give cable a run for it's revenue stream (as the Netflix CEO says will happen in 3 to 5 years in another article I link to here), it may get a little dicey price wise for a while.
> 
> ...


How far off are we from being able to use a dish and get on average 20 mbps and over 200 gigs per month? I would drop Comcast in a minute if it was priced right


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## sledgehammer1367066128 (Jun 19, 2011)

I don't see that happening. While they might be able to deliver the speed and BW some day, they can't overcome the latency. Traveling 'X' thousand miles up and back down takes a minimum amount of time that won't be overcome any time soon.


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

Sledge Hammer! said:


> I don't see that happening. While they might be able to deliver the speed and BW some day, they can't overcome the latency. Traveling 'X' thousand miles up and back down takes a minimum amount of time that won't be overcome any time soon.


It's to bad, because like I said, I would drop Comcast in a minute. I wonder if a company will bring out a service that will work through the power lines any time in the near future?


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## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

I don't think satellite technology is the answer for the end user. However, a similar technology to what we are seeing in cell phones and tablets today will take off relatively soon in my view. That's why companies like Verizon are buying up bandwidth. They see it coming.

A 'large' tablet TV may be in your future. An 80" iPad? Not too far fetched. Microsoft's table is close than you think. (Yes, I said table - not tablet.)

Anyway - they'll all be connected to what we are calling the internet for now, and the second generation internet fairly soon. And mostly wireless.

Did you think just three years ago that the TV you would buy in 2011 would have 'apps' built in? This stuff is moving very fast!


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

Athlon646464 said:


> I don't think satellite technology is the answer for the end user. However, a similar technology to what we are seeing in cell phones and tablets today will take off relatively soon in my view. That's why companies like Verizon are buying up bandwidth. They see it coming.
> 
> A 'large' tablet TV may be in your future. An 80" iPad? Not too far fetched. Microsoft's table is close than you think. (Yes, I said table - not tablet.)
> 
> ...


We live in great technological times. I wonder the reasoning behind Dish buying those satellites for Internet broadband? I hope we see the cell phone technology as a choices for high speed internet soon.


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## sledgehammer1367066128 (Jun 19, 2011)

I'm thinking it will be some form of wireless, maybe something different than what we know now.

The real revolution will have to be in rural areas though. They'll have to do something that can approach FIOS, but I don't know how they'll deliver it. Cell towers maybe. Maybe a change in laws to allow access on towers used for other things like railroad communications or even large power transmission lines. They have to get past current line of site issues. I can physically see 4 or 5 radio towers from my roof, but there is no wireless service available on any of them.

Then there's the price vs demand issue. DSL serves a much wider portion of this county than it did even 5 years ago. Cable only hits a small portion. Even the one wireless company can't 'see' enough houses to warrant a large investment. Much of the county only has 2 or 3 houses per road mile, and many of those are elderly or very low income that couldn't afford $60/mo or more, so why would companies spend the big bucks necessary to cover them?


Service would have to be in the $30 range with no BW caps to make sense for most here.

Not too long ago, I dropped my $50/mo satellite ISP when I found that the telco had made DSL available to me within the last few months. I had also added a Wi-Max cell phone repeater which gave me 4 or 5 bars inside the house. Dropping the traditional cell phone for a prepaid while dropping the satellite ISP and adding 'naked broadband' DSL saves me about $50/mo or more while actually increasing my level of service.

However, the DSL is only 3Mb, so I don't know how well it will perform If I decide to really get into VOD or streaming.


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## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

Sledge Hammer! said:


> I'm thinking it will be some form of wireless, maybe something different than what we know now.
> 
> The real revolution will have to be in rural areas though. They'll have to do something that can approach FIOS, but I don't know how they'll deliver it. Cell towers maybe. Maybe a change in laws to allow access on towers used for other things like railroad communications or even large power transmission lines. They have to get past current line of site issues. I can physically see 4 or 5 radio towers from my roof, but there is no wireless service available on any of them.
> 
> ...


I think we can throw out everything we are using today when we try and speculate what we'll be using 7 to 10 years from now. And that's whether we live in NYC, or in the last house on the left out in Podunkville.


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## sledgehammer1367066128 (Jun 19, 2011)

I remember hearing about some sort of infrared optical link system similar to microwave. Strictly line-of-sight, it transfers data at extremely high speeds over several miles; sort of like fiber optics without the fiber. As far as I know it was/is only used for commercial applications.


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## sledgehammer1367066128 (Jun 19, 2011)

Athlon646464 said:


> the last house on the left out in Podunkville.


I believe that's my neighbor's address.


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## Athlon646464 (Feb 23, 2007)

Sledge Hammer! said:


> I believe that's my neighbor's address.


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## oldschoolecw (Jan 25, 2007)

The town I live in is surrounded by Verizon FioS, but they never came into town, and never will. I am jealous of those that have it, most dropped Comcast once FioS entered their towns and they say it kills Comcast in many ways.


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