# The outlook for TiVo after the Series 3 launch - It's not good



## Darkman (Apr 16, 2002)

The outlook for TiVo after the Series 3 launch - It's not good

Posted Oct 31st 2006 6:46AM by Chris Tew
Filed under: TiVo, TiVo Series 3

Brian Clark of Gizmodo has done a feature on the outlook of TiVo after the release of the Series 3. I don't know if you remember but before the launch of the Series 3 TiVo was getting a lot of bad press about being a company that is not making money and is in trouble.

That bad press seemed to disappear around the launch of the Series 3 but I think we will start to be seeing a lot more from now on. As Gizmodo points out, the outlook for TiVo is not a good one.

I'll outline some of the main concerns regarding TiVo's future:

- TiVo's stock is down significantly since the Series 3 was launched and is about $6.60 compared to a predicted $9.50. 
- The number of shared sold internally by TiVo executives outweighs the number bought. This gives an indication that the people running the company have little faith in its immediate future. 
- Deals to provide TiVo software to other vendors are sketchy. There is a possible deal with Comcast although no further details have been released and TiVo also has a deal with Cox, but this might not be enough, especially if the Comcast deal falls through. 
- Of the 4.5 million TiVo subscribers most are from the recently ended partnership with DirecTV and the cost of acquiring new subscribers has increased by 50%. 
- TiVo's long term prospects could be in advertising which is ironic coming from a company that allows you to skip ads. 
- TiVo is also bogged down in a lawsuit with Echostar which is yet to be resolved. It will be great for TiVo if it wins, but the lawsuit is far from over with lots of costly court battles ahead.

Clark also mentions that the $800 price tag for the Series 3 was just way too expensive....

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( The entire article is at the following source: http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/10/31/tivo-outlook-shaky/ )


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## kay (Nov 27, 2005)

I don't see why dtv doesn't pull some change from the couch, or under the front seat of the car, and just buy TiVO already. Would be a good business decision if D* could be with TiVO and be the exclusive provider.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

I moved the thread here to General Discussion, as there is more then DirecTV people intrested in the future of TiVo, Inc.


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## Darkman (Apr 16, 2002)

OK.. Fare nuff 

However it could be less traffic in this forum's area than in General DirecTV Discussions (.. i considered this Forum's area also before posting my above post.. but wasn't sure which area would be better.. and went with General DirecTV Discussions)


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## tzphotos.com (Jul 12, 2006)

kay said:


> I don't see why dtv doesn't pull some change from the couch, or under the front seat of the car, and just buy TiVO already. Would be a good business decision if D* could be with TiVO and be the exclusive provider.


I switched from ReplayTV to DirecTivo and wish ReplayTV had an HD version of their system. I miss my ReplayTV, I thought it was better than the TIVO system. Maybe DirecTV will buy ReplayTV.


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## cookpr (Aug 24, 2006)

Is Replay TV still even around??


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

Darkman said:


> OK.. Fare nuff
> 
> However it could be less traffic in this forum's area than in General DirecTV Discussions (.. i considered this Forum's area also before posting my above post.. but wasn't sure which area would be better.. and went with General DirecTV Discussions)


I know... Hence why I added it to the headline's page..


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## tzphotos.com (Jul 12, 2006)

cookpr said:


> Is Replay TV still even around??


Yes, I think they are shifting to the PC market of DVR. The only reason I switched is because I wanted an HD version of the DVR and DirecTivo fit the bill a few months ago. Once DirecTV gets OTA working on the new HD DVR (HR20) I will make the switch.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

cookpr said:


> Is Replay TV still even around??


ReplayTV has pretty much left the DVR hardware market in favor of providing DVR software for Windows XP based computers.


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## Darkman (Apr 16, 2002)

Earl Bonovich said:


> I know... Hence why I added it to the headline's page..


Oh.. OK.. i just found it 

I hardly go there though .. BUT others more likely DO .. So - Good Idea!


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

OK, now that we're done discussing the moderation, can we get back to the subject of the thread?

:backtotop


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## Mixer (Sep 28, 2006)

Well if they bought Tivo it sure would solve that pesky FFwd (lack of) jumpback issue that the HR20 is dealing with.


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## paulman182 (Aug 4, 2006)

I sure hope D* doesn't buy Tivo and go back to that cutesy-poo GUI in its DVRs.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

Mixer said:


> Well if they bought Tivo it sure would solve that pesky FFwd (lack of) jumpback issue that the HR20 is dealing with.


Only if they buy them with the intent to use their technology and patents.

It wouldn't be the first time a company has been purchased to keep their "product" from the market....

On a side note, try using the Jump Back button to exit your FF motion, instead of hitting play.


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## Marty B (Sep 21, 2006)

It just goes to show you, Having a great product is not always enough. If you don't get in bed with the right people, your business will get squashed. Who loses? We (the consumers) do.


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## jaywdetroit (Sep 21, 2006)

Here's a thought: The providers are attempting to sink TIVO to pressure them into selling their software so it can be tweaked to eliminate the ability to so easily bypass advertising. Of course it is much more complicated than that, isn't it? 

D* has made it clear it plans on siding with the the Content Providers with their new DVR. Navigating past commercials is much more cumbersome with their offering. And since D* interests also have interests in the FOX networks, don't you think they would be doing what they can to protect their revenue stream?


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## richiephx (Jan 19, 2006)

My heart bleeds for TIVO.......<pushing the erase button>


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## jlchasejr (Oct 18, 2006)

There is an article today on CNET.com entitled, "TiVo readies for prime time with Comcast". I could not post the url since I am new to this board.


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## litzdog911 (Jun 23, 2004)

Once upon a time there were rumors that Apple might buy Tivo. That would certainly be an interesting "marriage".


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## djlong (Jul 8, 2002)

Ok, I found the story:

http://news.com.com/TiVo+readies+for+prime+time+with+Comcast/2100-1041_3-6130862.html

The meat:

[quoting]
The initial release seems to have been pushed back, though both parties say nothing has changed. When the deal was first announced last year, Comcast said its first TiVo-brand DVR service would be available in "mid- to late 2006." That timeframe is still accurate, said Comcast spokeswoman Jenni Moyer, and will be available on a limited basis later this year, with a broader rollout planned for 2007, she said. 
[end]


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## Darkman (Apr 16, 2002)

Settlement could be coming in TiVo v. EchoStar

Posted Oct 31st 2006 8:00PM by Brad Linder

In case you've lost your place, once upon a time, TiVo sued EchoStar, saying EchoStar's personal video recorders infringed on TiVo's patents. TiVo won in court, but EchoStar went and filed its own patent infringement suit against TiVo.

EchoStar's countersuit is on hold, but there still hasn't been a resolution in the original suit. Back in August, a federal court had ordered EchoStar to stop selling and supporting PVRs within 30 days, but that ruling was put on hold pending appeal.

Whew, got all that? Well you might not need to be able to sort it all out, because it looks like TiVo and EchoStar could be close to a settlement.

The appeals court has put the case on hold for 14 days, pending "disposition of final post judgement motion in district court," which probably means some sort of a settlement.

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( Source: http://www.pvrwire.com/2006/10/31/settlement-could-be-coming-in-tivo-v-echostar/ )


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## TheRatPatrol (Oct 1, 2003)

harsh said:


> ReplayTV has pretty much left the DVR hardware market in favor of providing DVR software for Windows XP based computers.


I've always thought that companies like Tivo and ReplayTV should provide the software while D*, Comcast, and Cox provide the hardware.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

FYI: Tivo has a petition for writ of certiorari in the E* case pending at the Supreme Court. The response of the court (whether or not they agree to hear the case) is due by November 6th.


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## gthorson (Sep 17, 2006)

In my opinion, TIVO went the wrong direction when it tried to rely on its software features rather than on programming recommendations. It simply is too easy for its competitors to create a 30 second jump or slip. Rather, it should have focused on developing its Showcases, and alerting customers to shows that were upcoming that might interest them. For example, it might have allowed the automatic recording of all of the top 10 rated shows. Or it might have automatically recorded a top new show and offered an invitation to view it. My favorite would have it that it would create a special Showcase for Holiday programming (such as Rudolph, etc.). The service that people want is to be able to sort through the 150+ channels of junk and find something that they are interested in.

JMHO.


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## dodge boy (Mar 31, 2006)

Earl Bonovich said:


> I know... Hence why I added it to the headline's page..


That's how I found it..... Thanks Earl.


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## Kapeman (Dec 22, 2003)

gthorson said:


> My favorite would have it that it would create a special Showcase for Holiday programming (such as Rudolph, etc.). The service that people want is to be able to sort through the 150+ channels of junk and find something that they are interested in.
> 
> JMHO.


 I _really_ like that idea as I have just gone through that process looking for Halloween shows for the family.


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## hoopsbwc34 (Aug 13, 2002)

Kapeman said:


> I _really_ like that idea as I have just gone through that process looking for Halloween shows for the family.


Wishlist -> Category -> Interests -> Holiday

Brought up all the Halloween programs and I picked the few to record.


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## steveschauer (Jun 17, 2006)

gthorson said:


> In my opinion, TIVO went the wrong direction when it tried to rely on its software features rather than on programming recommendations. It simply is too easy for its competitors to create a 30 second jump or slip. Rather, it should have focused on developing its Showcases, and alerting customers to shows that were upcoming that might interest them. For example, it might have allowed the automatic recording of all of the top 10 rated shows. Or it might have automatically recorded a top new show and offered an invitation to view it. My favorite would have it that it would create a special Showcase for Holiday programming (such as Rudolph, etc.). The service that people want is to be able to sort through the 150+ channels of junk and find something that they are interested in.
> 
> JMHO.


Exactly right. Whether they can play the patent abuse card or not for some temporary cash relief, DVRs are just a commodity now. If they want to survive they have to find a niche like you describe. I still don't see how they can compete with "free" DVRs though.


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## Kapeman (Dec 22, 2003)

hoopsbwc34 said:


> Wishlist -> Category -> Interests -> Holiday
> 
> Brought up all the Halloween programs and I picked the few to record.


Thanks for the tip.

That's a good one.

I haven't explored the filters at all.

I will now and just in time for Christmas!


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## NFLnut (Sep 29, 2006)

jaywdetroit said:


> D* has made it clear it plans on siding with the the Content Providers with their new DVR. Navigating past commercials is much more cumbersome with their offering.


How so? TiVo and the HR20 bypass commercials exactly the same way. Press the FF button on both. Only the HR20 also adds the 30s SLIP feature, but you still see the commercials, just like you do with the TiVo.


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## bidger (Nov 19, 2005)

30 second skip on a TiVo, which has to be enabled btw, is different from the 30 second slip on the HR20 because it just jumps forward to the 30 sec. increment point, it doesn't show what's on the screen like the HR20. As a Sports fan, I've come to prefer the slip on the HR20 because I can see what's on the screen and I can hit the jump back button to correct "quick snappers" like Peyton Manning.

Back on topic, most folks don't feel that it's worth $13/mo. for DVR functionality, on top of which it's another bill on top of the one from your multichannel provider. I think people are more receptive if TiVo would be offered by their provider, but that wouldn't be profitable enough for TiVo to survive.


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## bidger (Nov 19, 2005)

Stopped by TiVo Community Forums tonight and saw a thread about new service pricing policies. To get the $12.95/mo. rate you apparently have to agree to a 3 year commitment. If you only want to commit to 1 year, it's $19.95/mo. and the changes affect multi-unit service pricing too. To get the previous $6.95/mo. deal, you have to commit to 3 years.

I'd find it hard to believe most consumers would find this strategy attractive.


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## BecTech (Oct 15, 2006)

cookpr said:


> Is Replay TV still even around??


They no longer sell ReplayTV set-top units but the company still supports the service. I have had ReplayTV for several years and I hope I never have to live without it 

I've never had another brand of dvr so I cannot compare them to Tivo but back when I chose Replaytv over Tivo it was because ReplayTVs are ethernet ready. All 3 of mine are on my network, I can watch shows recorded on any box from any of the others. Tivo couldn't do that.. not sure if they can now.

As Tom said though, Replaytv can't do HD, so when I ever upgrade to HD I'm going to have switch 

Bec


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## Cholly (Mar 22, 2004)

The current versions of TiVo (Series 2 and Series 3) both support Ethernet - wired and wireless. My series 2 is currently wired, but since I have a wireless router, it could just as easily be wireless.

If it weren't for the high price for the Series 3 HD TiVo, I'd jump on it.


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