# Will receivers be upgraded to MPEG4 free?



## meatman (Oct 14, 2003)

Well has anyone heard if dish is going to do free upgrades for the mpeg 4 hd recievers or not?


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

Nobody knows and anyone who claims one way or another is guessing.

JL


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## boylehome (Jul 16, 2004)

meatman said:


> Well has anyone heard if dish is going to do free upgrades for the mpeg 4 hd recievers or not?


My guess is they will want $$$$.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Nobody knows for sure, including probably Charlie and the rest of Echostar.

My guess would be that it would be a combination... Upgrades for the early adopters who just can't wait for some cost... but eventually a free swap for the rest of the customers if they want to completely switch to MPEG4 across the board.

Too many folks would bolt if they all had to pay... and too many folks to swap out for free... but a happy medium somewhere in there if Dish can get a bunch of us to pay for early adoption to help offset costs for later.


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## dwcobb (Oct 13, 2005)

I would be stunned and shocked. I sincerely hope they work with existing customers to moderate the costs, but the receivers are NOT free for them to build, and they will want to recover at least part of that expense.

The more new features a new box has, the less likely it is they will cut a deal, both because each feature will make the box more expensive and because the more new things the box can do the more justifiable it is to charge someone (you would not be getting the same box in a new format, but something that does more for you).

My best hope is that it will cost about $200 or so. But honestly, I am not even expecting anything that generous.

And as JL says, no one really knows. But I simply can't imagine a "free" upgrade on this one.


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## Link (Feb 2, 2004)

If their service becomes MPEG-4 only, then I'd think they'd have to replace the receivers. Otherwise who is going to stay with their service if they have to pay out a lot of money to get new receivers?? Many will not understand the new technology and not want to change anything with their current systems. I don't think it will be an easy transition.


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## KingLoop (Mar 3, 2005)

All I know is this, if it is a free upgrade, our bills are going up!.


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## moman19 (Oct 22, 2004)

KingLoop said:


> All I know is this, if it is a free upgrade, our bills are going up!.


Maybe not, if swapping out all existing HD boxes (a relatively small percentage of all E* subs) for new MPEG4 units opens up large quantities of bandwidth for the HD masses. That bandwidth is golden. It makes little sense for them to suport HD on BOTH formats.

Wishful thinking..................................


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## kckucera (Aug 1, 2005)

I would be pleased if MPEG 4 were used to improve picture quality. OK, OK, I know I am dreaming, but what if DISH actually did the right thing for once and stopped pandering to obscure ethinic groups in favor of enhanced HD and SD image quality? Imagine a world without 921 woe, a world where the MPEG 4 transistion was not at the expense of early adopters getting hosed for $1000 cash investment on a semi working product. What if DISH actually assisted those of us 921 victums by giving us a free upgrade for our pain and suffering? End of rant.


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## sledhead 700 (Apr 27, 2004)

kckucera said:


> I would be pleased if MPEG 4 were used to improve picture quality. OK, OK, I know I am dreaming, but what if DISH actually did the right thing for once and stopped pandering to obscure ethinic groups in favor of enhanced HD and SD image quality? Imagine a world without 921 woe, a world where the MPEG 4 transistion was not at the expense of early adopters getting hosed for $1000 cash investment on a semi working product. What if DISH actually assisted those of us 921 victums by giving us a free upgrade for our pain and suffering? End of rant.


Amen!!


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## dwcobb (Oct 13, 2005)

moman19 said:


> Maybe not, if swapping out all existing HD boxes (a relatively small percentage of all E* subs) for new MPEG4 units opens up large quantities of bandwidth for the HD masses. That bandwidth is golden. It makes little sense for them to suport HD on BOTH formats.
> 
> Wishful thinking..................................


I am not sure that the HD subscribers are still "relatively small." I would bet that it is a much higher % than you would guess. But even if it is, that doesn' treally matter. It is bad business to let most of your customers absorb overhead related to serving a segment of them. Yes, it is true that is how programming in general works, but for boxes, why would they want to make their business less profitable to keep things cheap for what is certainly their most affluent customer segment?

Second, you are implying that more bandwidth means more programming automatically. More HD locals, maybe. But more programming means more expense for them to carry programming, which would again mean that eventually, HD rates would have to go up to cover the extra programming expense.

The only model that really works as free is if somehow the free box increased their business. Swapping existing boxes won't do that. I just won't believe they will go that way.

It does make sense for them to cut a very good deal to help ensure they don't LOSE customers, and maybe even build loyalty. But I doubt there would be a measureable difference in their customer retention rates between a "Free" box and a $200 one.

And yes, this comes from someone who has a particularly shoddy 921.

I wouldn't build any plans around the free route. I don't expect it will happen, and if it doesn't it will only piss you off more if you build up an expectation.


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## AllieVi (Apr 10, 2002)

If DISH switches everyone to MPEG4, the cost of doing so will be staggering. Tens of millions of older receivers like mine would have to be replaced. Even if the cost to DISH was only $100 each, the total would come to several billion dollars that I doubt DISH will be willing to absorb. The real numbers will probably be much higher. If customers are asked to ante-up funds, many will switch to something else.

Every time it looks like the satellite companies may be able to make money, an expense like this seems to come along. Fiber-optic service will take away large numbers of existing customers as it rolls out across the country in future years and cable is improving as it delivers digital signals. It's getting harder to be bullish on either satellite service.


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## Ghostwriter (Oct 11, 2005)

Well IMO they will only be offering the newer MPEG4 receivers to new customers where the HD LiL rollout starts. I guess they hope there are more than a few "gotta have it now at whatever price" customers out there. Personally I think HD subs are a very small percentage of the E* subs as of today, and most of the "regular" SD customers will not throw E* money for their new MPEG4 receiver considering D* at this moment is actually giving you a dollar for their MPEG4 receiver. 


E* has to watch where they tread here. Considering D* already has a small head start it HD LIL rollout and obtaining the 1st receiver at no cost, E* has to have a solid plan for new subs and a fair upgrade option for existing subs.


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## rocatman (Nov 28, 2003)

Folks need to look at the transition to MPEG-4 as actually two transitions as was somewhat mentioned in the November Technical Chat. HD channels will be migrated to MPEG-4 while SD channels will be migrated to 8PSK from QPSK. This latter transition provides Dish with a 33 - 50 percent increase in bandwidth capacity i.e., from 12 SD channels/TP to 16 - 18 SD channels/TP. For example for the 119 W slot, Dish uses 16 TPs for SD CONUS channels. With just a 33% increase in bandwidth using 8PSK, Dish would only have to use 12 TPs freeing up 4 TPs. I believe this transition to 8PSK for the SD channels would also allow Dish to put both HD/MPEG-4/8PSK channels and SD/MPEG-2/8PSK channels on a single TP which can result in a better utilization in TP capacity. For example, currently Dish jams 3 HD channels/TP using MPEG-2/8PSK because otherwise they would throw away a significant amount of bandwidth putting only 2 HD channels/TP. Now if Dish can put both HD and SD channels on a single TP they may be able increase the resolution of the HD channels by putting fewer HD channels per TP and then backfill what is left with SD channels that require less bandwidth.

I know the discussion has been focused on the swapout of receivers but one needs to understand the two transitions to understand what Dish can and needs to do regarding receiver swapouts. Dish needs to start eliminating non-MPEG-4 HD receivers as well as non-8PSK receivers. Realize though that non-MPEG-4 HD receivers can be used to replace non-8PSK receivers. I am sure there are a number of folks who would gladly have there old 2000, 3000, 4000 series receivers replaced with a used 811 that would give them the ability to receive HD OTA channels and have a faster programming guide. I am sure some 5xx owners would gladly pay something to swap their DVR for a used 942 even if the ability to receive satellite HD channels was disabled. By doing this Dish can defray some of their transition costs and keep costs lower for their subscribers.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

I realize that next month's chat is supposed to be a HD chat - but I would really be happy to see E* go back to the November Tech Forum HD answer and explain that "Turbo" coding that is expected to give 30-50% more efficiency on 10 million existing receivers. There is something to what was said - but something wrong too.

I don't see E* using the "hand me down" receiver approach. I believe they will do their best to keep as many current receivers working and limit the need to upgrade to special cases (with a special offer) and bleeding edge consumers who will pay full price. They do need to get the four digit receivers off of the system.

JL


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## Rob O (Dec 19, 2005)

It seems to me that at least a portion of the E* strategy would be to start bringing in new HD subscribers with the offering of the local HD networks and better national HD offerings (major advertising campaign). I for one have been sitting on the fence about subscribing because of the lack of the local HD's. I can not get them OTA without significant investment in an antenna setup.

It seems like E* might be able to recoup some of their investment in new MPEG-4 receivers by increasing HD subscribers and providing upgrades at some reasonable expense to new subscribers as well as existing HD subs (at least I can hope so !)


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## Codeman00 (Dec 13, 2003)

James Long said:


> I realize that next month's chat is supposed to be a HD chat - JL


When is the HD chat?


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## navychop (Jul 13, 2005)

Next HD chat is 1/9/06


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## navychop (Jul 13, 2005)

AllieVi-

DISH has about 12 million subs. Let's say that translates into roughly 25 million receivers. At $100 @ (your estimate), that's about $2,500,000,000. In other words, 2.5 billion in American English, or 25 hundred million in British English. This assumes every single receiver must be replaced, without discussing over how many years.

So what is the alternative? Buying and launching a satellite? Obtaining licenses, setting up more uplink capacity (to aim at another satellite), and many other expenses? Several hundred million, at least.

It may not cost them as much, considering the offsetting savings of NOT launching a satellite or 2. Plus, the new receivers will offer the potential for more income- HD, VOD (ok- "sorta-VOD"), and perhaps other, possibly interactive features. 

All new DISH receivers will be 8PSK, HD, and MPEG-4 capable. I suspect they will all have ethernet also, after the 411. About half the receivers out there now are 8PSK capable. The faster they complete the rollout, the faster they can reap the benefits. But it costs them more up front to roll out the new receivers quickly.

I'll bet they don't have a firm timetable. They will replace current offerings to new subs with new, fully capable receivers. People adding HD-LiLs and later, new HD, will get some sort of deal on new receivers- after MPEG-4 encoders get efficient enough and DISH starts broadcasting in that mode. As the efficiency goes up, receiver costs go down (MPEG-4 chips are new and pricey), and enticement programs pull obsolete receivers out of circulation, DISH can plan the phase in. Plus, the success or failure of Echostar X will no doubt be a factor.

The previously expected, 3 year timetable may not be long enough. Over some period of years, as the number of subs increases and people upgrade or replace for other reasons, the % of receivers with the new capabilities will grow, and the absolute number of old receivers will dwindle. So while I expect essentially all transmissions to eventually move to MPEG-4 encoding with 8PSK modulation, the SD changeover may be long in coming. 

Since all equipment has an expected lifespan, DISH may consider the 4 digit receivers to all be past reasonable use and feel no obligation to replace them. But I'll bet they'll offer some deal anyway- customer satisfaction and the chance to increase revenue from those customers, who would (presumably) get new capabilities with the new receivers. The replacements will all no doubt be the low end, cheapest receivers. It's the DVR folks they need to entice to upgrade before any offers come out, to minimize their costs.

More guessing: Let's pull a SWAG and estimate that on 1/1/10 DISH will have about 18-20 million subs, and 5-10 million non-MPEG-4 receivers in use. They can spread that, oh, say approximately 1 billion dollar cost, over 50% to 100% more subs. It may well be less, because electronics, including hard drives, continue to decline in price. Any they will have deferred a satellite launch or two.

Same story, different thread.


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## SHS (Jan 8, 2003)

DISH may have about 12+ million subs but that translates more like 3x that with avg house hold having about 2 receiver with maybe about 30% of that 3 to 4+ receiver.
And if I unstand the rules you can only have 2 HD receiver per house hold but hopely Dish will change this after all everything is going by HD by 2008/9.


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## LtMunst (Aug 24, 2005)

SHS said:


> And if I unstand the rules you can only have 2 HD receiver per house hold but hopely Dish will change this after all everything is going by HD by 2008/9.


The law says everything must be Digital by 2009, not HD. All Dish channels are already Digital.


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## navychop (Jul 13, 2005)

Everything going HD may mean all the receivers being shipped being HD capable.

I figured an average of about 2 receivers per sub, total 25 million receivers. That may be high- a LOT of subs have just the one receiver. Anyone know of a source for good figures on this?

Even if there are 30 or 40 million receivers out there today, in 3 or 4 years, that number will be WAY down. And the number of subs will be way up. The E* strategy of putting this off and phasing in slowly will likely save them money at little or no loss to the subs.

There is no 2 receiver per household limit that I know of. I think it's 6, maybe 8, HD or not. Someone have definite knowledge on this?


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## AllieVi (Apr 10, 2002)

navychop said:


> ... So what is the alternative? Buying and launching a satellite? Obtaining licenses, setting up more uplink capacity (to aim at another satellite), and many other expenses? Several hundred million, at least. ...


My post was intended to show the magnitude of the expense DISH will incur. My estimate of $100 per receiver was simply to make the math easy and not intended to be realistic. I expect the numbers would be much higher.

My post was more for the benefit of DISH investors, not customers. I don't believe delivery of satellite programming will be a profitable business in the future as things stand. In the early days, satellite had a better picture and offered more channels than cable, so customers came running (particularly in remote areas).

I doubt the customer numbers will increase dramatically in the future, though. Fiber and digital cable options will change the landscape. I've read that fiber bandwidth may allow channels to be provided without the need for the compression that will cost satellite billions. Ain't that a kick in the head?


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## navychop (Jul 13, 2005)

Satellite will beat coax cable indefinitely. Nature of the delivery system- coax transmission paths require too much maintenance and tweaking. Fiber is another story. But getting fiber out to a significant portion of the population will take many, many years. I live in northern VA and in my neighborhood, it's 3-7 years out. Think how long it will take to get to areas with smaller population densities. Satellite has a lot of growth still remaining, for years to come. I think microwave delivery systems may become yet another competitor- but not a killer.


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## tnsprin (Mar 16, 2003)

navychop said:


> AllieVi-
> 
> ...As the efficiency goes up, receiver costs go down (MPEG-4 chips are new and pricey), ...


Actually the new MPEG-4 chips, I believe they are using the ones from Broadcom (BCM7411?), are not that pricey.

Its having to replace the whole works and redo software to support it that is pricey.


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## wkomorow (Apr 22, 2002)

My hope is that Dish will first do LIL HD in MPEG-4 and leave national adds (at least initially) in MPEG-2. It is a bit easier to say, if you want this new service (LIL HD), you need a new receiver, but if you want the remaining VOOM channels and Universal HD , you need to upgrade your equiptment. We all know that the MPEG-4 DVRs are going to be in short supply for a while.


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## SHS (Jan 8, 2003)

Broadcom chip I hope not


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## kstevens (Mar 26, 2003)

What happens with those of us who lease the 942. Will there be a program to where we can exchange the 942 for a 622?


Ken


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## lakebum431 (Jun 30, 2005)

kstevens said:
 

> What happens with those of us who lease the 942. Will there be a program to where we can exchange the 942 for a 622?
> 
> Ken


My guess is yes - for a fee and for a commitment of at least a year


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

All the boxes being sold (well new, not reconditioned) are 8PSK right now. Dish at least made that transition a while ago.

I predict that as soon as they get the bugs out of all the MPEG-4 boxes they will be the only ones sold/installed. Even if you do not need HD, you will get MPEG-4 as a new customer. I would say around May/June of next year non MPEG-4 boxes will all be discontinued.

In the past Dish has worked very hard to minimize costs for customers. One of my 6000 upgrades was free, the other one was $50. I got one 811 from Dish for $100. Considering I sold my 6000s on Ebay for $500-$600 each I came out way ahead (I got 2 6000s on my initial Dish install). I paid retail (well internet discount a bit) on my 921 with the proceeds from the 6000s, I came out with extra money and had an 811 and a 921 instead of 2 6000s. Yes I know it is wierd and I did not try to milk the system, but I have made money on my Dish equipment upgrades.

I of course subscribe to AEP and all the HD channels, so am probably going to get Dish's best deal on stuff. If you just sub to AT60 I suspect they will not have an MPEG-4 deal for you for quite a while.

What I see Dish doing is working the MPEG-4 and 8PSK downward. Somewhat like they did when the replaced the security cards. HD of course will be MPEG-4 first. Then they will probably switch things like the movie packages and porn over since they are the most pirated things and with MPEG-4 they can knock out a ton of pirates, plus they are high margin and will pay for the boxes fast. Eventually the AT180, then 120 and finally probably 5 years from now the 60s. By then most of the boxes would have already turned over with churn and new customers.

Rumor has it that the current security cards are compromised again. If so, Dish might find it time to switch out the recievers for the prized pirated channels.


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## Ghostwriter (Oct 11, 2005)

I think it will be even earlier than may/june. The 411/211 IMO will be your base boxes being capable of mpeg2/4 and 8psk. Rumor has it that the 942 has been discontinued and the HD DVR 622 will launch early February.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

Ghostwriter said:


> Rumor has it that the 942 has been discontinued and the HD DVR 622 will launch early February.


Actually confirmed in the retailer thread posted by Darkman ... as confirmed as any 'forward looking statements' made by E* can be. 

Hmmm .... 942 'discontinued' and no mention of a 942+? I guess we can cross that off as confirmed as well.

JL


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

James Long said:


> Actually confirmed in the retailer thread posted by Darkman ... as confirmed as any 'forward looking statements' made by E* can be.
> 
> Hmmm .... 942 'discontinued' and no mention of a 942+? I guess we can cross that off as confirmed as well.
> 
> JL


My DSL is back to normal, so I won't say "but, but..." to the above...

But I am kinda curious... since I have a 6000u... and have thought about an HD-DVR. If they made an attractive upgrade scenario for me to lease/own one of the new MPEG4 ones I might go that way... otherwise I'd probably just go for the non-DVR MPEG4 if it was a cheaper/freebie upgrade.

Like I could have had an 811 for a long time now as a free upgrade on my account, but I can't tell that it would be significantly better than the 6000u, so I haven't bit... but if there was an equivalent freebie non-DVR MPEG4 I might bite on that so I don't miss any channels when the time comes, if they haven't made an attractive HD-DVR offer by then.


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## Ghostwriter (Oct 11, 2005)

IMO...don't hold your breath.


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## kstevens (Mar 26, 2003)

Are there any initial specs on the 622?


Ken


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

There are some leaks, but nothing guaranteed. Think 411+942 and you won't be too far off.

JL


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

James Long said:


> There are some leaks, but nothing guaranteed. Think 411+942 and you won't be too far off.
> 
> JL


1353?

Ok, I'm still a little bit sarcastic...


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Ghostwriter said:


> IMO...don't hold your breath.


When the 811 came out... it was a paid upgrade of some significane to existing accounts... so I passed on it. For most of the past year, at least for me, it has been a free upgrade.

So I am thinking that at least for the "base" MPEG4 receiver... it will probably be some kind of paid upgrade at first so they make some money back and since supply will be low... but maybe 6-months to 1-year out, it will slowly become more available as a free swap/add to existing lease accounts in the same way the 811 was.

I expect the MPEG4 DVR will always cost something, probably purchase-only at first like 942 and 921... but after a while it will become available as a lease/swap too... but if it is at a $250 or so upgrade fee that makes me want to wait longer.


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## navychop (Jul 13, 2005)

SHS- do you know something negative about the Broadcom chips?

- - - - - - 

Current DISH receivers:
111, 301, 311 & 322: being replaced by the 411/vip211 series & their upcoming 2 TV versions. 301 is essentially gone already.
501/508/510/721: All but gone (only refurbs available?), replaced by upcoming vip622.
522/625: Since the vip622 performs these functions & more, these will likely be withdrawn as soon as new production of vip622 units allows.
811/942: Gone or about to be gone, as best we know. Replaced by 411/vip211 & vip622.

Since it will cost DISH to replace non-MPEG-4 units in the next few years, it makes sense for them to stop offering all such units as soon as possible. This also allows them to rationalize and reduce their product line. The old cats & dogs go away, and resources can be concentrated on 4 or so models- hopefully resulting in better s/w. I fully expect all non-MPEG-4 units to be no longer offered by Dish by spring- earlier if at all possible.


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## SHS (Jan 8, 2003)

Take look at there Ethernet and Hardware MPEG Encoder becuase hardware design are based off other failed company which not very good to start with.


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## Ghostwriter (Oct 11, 2005)

If they ask me for a $250 upgrade from my 811 to whatever the new HD-DVR be numbered I will jump all over that.


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## tnsprin (Mar 16, 2003)

SHS said:


> Broadcom chip I hope not


almost certain. there the ones used in the 942 and many other dish machines.


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## Jerseyguy (Dec 13, 2005)

Mike123abc said:


> Then they will probably switch things like the movie packages and porn over since they are the most pirated things


I'm going to have to upgrade to MPEG4 if I want porn. I certainly hope not. :nono2:


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## Mike D-CO5 (Mar 12, 2003)

That may be the way Dish gets everyone to upgrade to a mpeg4 receiver fast. Make ALL of the porn only available to mpeg4 receiver customers. Imagine the rush for that one.:lol:


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## SHS (Jan 8, 2003)

That really a dumber they used Broadcom when Sigma Designs make one best decoder chip around at lease I think.


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## Jerseyguy (Dec 13, 2005)

Mike D-CO5 said:


> That may be the way Dish gets everyone to upgrade to a mpeg4 receiver fast. Make ALL of the porn only available to mpeg4 receiver customers. Imagine the rush for that one.:lol:


I'll go one better how bout Porn in HD  Oh look you can the...oops family board


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