# Could This New DVR Really hurt DTV...cause defections



## mya23rd (Dec 11, 2005)

When I first first heard about DTV’s plans to launch their own DVR I got a bad feeling in the pit of my stomach. I figured why mess with a good thing, Tivo works great and most customers are happy with it. But all that aside, DTV made the change and launched their new DVR a few months ago. What I am wondering is if anyone thinks this DVR could really hurt DTV. I mean from reading all these posts about unhappy DVR guinea pigs, it seems like they may have put this machine out a little too early. Understandably they wanted to start shipping their own rather than the Tivo DVR but should they have waited another 6 months or a year. Does anyone think this will cause significant defections to the other providers. Espeically when Comcast begins rolling out its Tivo box sometime next year. I never imagined this before but I am actually considering dumping DTV because of this. Am I absolutely nuts or does anyone else feel this way. Lets be honest its not just the Tivo thing, IMHO I think DTV has really diminished in its quality of service product. I was a customer 5 years ago and then returned about a year ago and the drop off in quality has been noticeable and I have heard many others echo this sentiment. Could this shaky execution of the DVR cause a huge dent in the DTV armour. What does everyone think?


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## mvaneps (Nov 19, 2005)

I definitely think it could if Comcast would get it together. If their FREE HD PVR could hold an adequate amount of recorded shows that could put them way ahead all by itself. But unfortunately it doesn't. On Demand will is/will be another big plus for cable. I am not ready to jump yet but I never even thought about it until the R15 debacle.


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## mya23rd (Dec 11, 2005)

I agree, if Comcast got their act together they could really take away some of DTV’s business. But they seem to resting on the factg that they have monopoly control over so many markets, but in fact they could really hurt DTV if they improved. I keep hearing from all these bigwig media execs and reading in articles how satellite companies are going to lose in the long wrong because of the basic fact that they can only send info down the pipes and are fundamentally at a disadvantage. As time goes by this disadvantage is becoming more evident. Consider the fact that true Video on Deman is not possibly thru satellite. DTV future plans for on demand are to basically download a bunch of stuff on to your DVR and let you watch that programming. Getting back to the DVR, one would think that they would really focus on executing with this new device. But it seems like they rushed it and began shipping before much of the bugs were worked out. 

I’m wondering if the upcoming HD DVR may be delayed so that they can address many of the issues evident in the standard DVR.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

Honestly?

Probably not... Every day DirecTV loses and gains customers. Here on the forums you normally see the negatives, most "press" is about the negatives....


Even DishNetwork seem to survive when the Viacom feeds where shut down for nearly half a week.... I for one that that was going to be a death nail in them, but it wasn't.


If DirecTV corrects the issues with the R15 (and I am confident they will), that will be the measuring stick.... In the long run, sure their DVR stragety is very important... and they know that... But just about EVERY products release sees a fallout like this.... 

The R15 is NOT a TiVo... and it never will be. Once that starts getting out into the heads of people (especially the teenagers working at Best Buy), then some of the "differences" won't be a magnified.


Will DirecTV crumble because of a rough launch of a product... I doubt it. Heck go back to the launch of the DTiVo... it wasn't the smoothest of sailings either, but things cleaned up (and more recently the HR10-250 and even the R10 has some issues when it was fist launched)

Honestly... I see two bugs remaining in the unit... one of which is just a feature limitation... Those being the 50 AutoRecord Limit combined with the 100 todo list. This isn't a "bug" in the sense of an undesired outcome, it is simply a hard coded value maximum.... And I know the DirecTV is working on fixing that.
The other bug is the "missing" recordings... see other threads.


IMHO... with the recent software patch to fix the Caller-ID and Remote resonsiveness, everything is just a difference in functionality from what we where used to with TiVo.


I would rather install a 16 foot dish, before switching to Comcast.... Their tactics of late far outweight any problems DirecTV has done... (In at least the Chicago Area, they moved 5 VERY popular channels of the basic analog band to the Digital Band... Thus forcing their customers to upgrade to the more expensive Digital packages, and rent the Digital Boxes from them... That was about a year ago, and now they are at it again and including a price hike in it as well).


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## ISWIZ (Nov 18, 2005)

I noticed an article on Engadget.com about DTV and "mobile" content. Maybe similar to Tivo To Go? If so, they seem to be planning on being around awhile.


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## ad301 (Mar 30, 2004)

So Earl, you believe that everyting in this list: http://www.dbstalk.com/showpost.php?p=474331&postcount=1 and subsequent messages, is just bogus whining by tivo aficionados? The only bug you see is missing recordings?


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

ad301 said:


> So Earl, you believe that everyting in this list: http://www.dbstalk.com/showpost.php?p=474331&postcount=1 and subsequent messages, is just bogus whining by tivo aficionados? The only bug you see is missing recordings?


To be honest, I haven't filtered through that entire thread... So there may be more 

But in general... I see a lot of the things people reporting as "bugs" being more of difference's in functionality when compared to the TiVo product.

Not so much as a flaw in the programming (which as a software developer, Is what I call a bug).

There are certainly "issues"... but I guess I am just "defining" bug differently then others. And it is NOT an attempt to "sugar" coat anything... I just can't call something a bug, when it just functions different from a different product.

This is where I think "TiVo" aficionados (which I still think I am one of to a degree), blur the line between Bugs and Features..


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## ad301 (Mar 30, 2004)

mya23rd said:


> Could this shaky execution of the DVR cause a huge dent in the DTV armour. What does everyone think?


I can't offer an opinion on "huge", but at least in my case, they have driven me to look at what alternatives I have. Over the past weekend, at family gatherings, I know of at least four other families which are now doing the same. A year ago, we never would have even thought about going to cable, we were all very happy with the setups we had. I'm not saying we're all jumping tomorrow, but the upcoming CES may have some interesting announcements, and we all now seem willing to consider a CC HD tivo as a viable alternative to DirecTV. Actually, the more we talked about the cable offering, which includes more HD movie channels, local HD rsns, all local channels in HD, on demand HD, and bundled high speed internet, the more it seemed like we were crazy to be staying with DirecTV and it's HD-lite and upcoming HD-DVR-lite. Speaking only for myself and a small circle of family and friends, cable is now back in play.


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## ad301 (Mar 30, 2004)

ebonovic said:


> To be honest, I haven't filtered through that entire thread... So there may be more
> 
> But in general... I see a lot of the things people reporting as "bugs" being more of difference's in functionality when compared to the TiVo product.
> 
> ...


I agree with you, that some of the things initially called bugs are really differences in the feature sets. But for me, they can fix all the "bugs", and the functionality would still be too limited compared to previous generations. (I won't get into all the details again, as I previously summarized my opinions here: http://www.dbstalk.com/showpost.php?p=476200&postcount=1)


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## tall1 (Aug 9, 2005)

ebonovic said:


> Honestly?
> 
> Probably not... Every day DirecTV loses and gains customers. Here on the forums you normally see the negatives, most "press" is about the negatives....
> 
> ...


I disagree with alot of what ebonovic says regarding the R15 but I agree with him that the buggy R15 will not hurt D*. In fact I think it was a brilliant business decision that they dumped Tivo and rolled their own DVR. Now I am pissed as hell about it as a customer who prefers Tivo but I am in such a small minority that if everyone left that felt the way I did, it wouldn't even cause a ripple in their earnings. The upside for D* is huge. They don't have to pay any licensing to Tivo and they have complete control over the DVR's R&D. Also, they can sell (or give away) their own DVR to unsuspecting customers (there is alot of them) who don't know a Tivo from their own a-hole. This hugely untapped customer base will be content because they don't know anything else.

In general I believe D* is able to move faster on technology than Comcast (my provider). Even though I have seen alot of recent changes from comcast like VOD, Digital Simulcast, HD and DVRs; comcast has to drag along too many legacy analog customers and it impacts their ability to take advantage of newer technologies (e.g mpeg4). I am very skeptical that comcast will ever get close to launching anything Tivo-like. I think the Tivo partnership was defensive so that comcast can avoid being sued by Tivo and it gives them access to IP they don't have.

Comcasts DVR is just as buggy as the R15 so even if Tivo fans defected to comcast, they would come back to D* in a heartbeat once they had to deal with the quirkiness of the 6412.

Comcast is all about VOD. Thus the reason they have such puny HDDs in their DVRs. The DVR to comcast is a stop gap until they can get all the content on VOD and charge for it. They dont want you recording content and building your own free VOD archive.

D* and Comcast have 2 very different business strategies which are dictated by the technology itself. I doubt a buggy DVR is going to cause mass defections. I am very disappointed with the R15 but I have no intention of leaving as long as D* continues support for the R10 and HD Tivo.


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

OK, I'll add my $.02 worth.

DTV will continue to exist. Customers will continue to purchase R15's and the HD equivalent. The majority of DTV's customers are sheep and will accept whatever they are given.

I...on the other hand....am a wolf. :lol: 

I have 4 HDVR2 Series 2 DTivos and one HR10-250. All hacked to their appropriate capabilities. I will not give those up until DTV stops supporting them.

When that point comes I will look for the best media carrier available with the best Media Center options and DVR options. Networking, MRV, remote access and downloading. Since I figure that's going to be at least 2007, the market has plenty of time to raise themselves to my expectations.

If DTV/NDS can actually put together a product/service grouping that meets those needs great. If not, I’m going with whichever company does the best job for my requirements.

So in the end, DTV and DISH will continue to exist as the majority of customers have low expectations and will accept what they are given.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

tall1 said:


> I disagree with alot of what ebonovic says regarding the R15


Can't we just get along....


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

tall1 said:


> The upside for D* is huge. They don't have to pay any licensing to Tivo and they have complete control over the DVR's R&D.


Based on multiple sources on the 'net, none verified, I have seen reference to DTV paying < $1.00 per subscriber to Tivo for licensing. Given the fact DTV charges each subscriber $4.99 for the Tivo DVR, they should be making $$$ there.

Also, does anyone know the actualy agreement between DTV and Tivo? I'd guess, when paying licensing you're not paying development costs. With NDS doing the development and not paying licensing then DTV is paying the development costs. I just don't see in any way that DTV going internal for a DVR will save any $$$. They're just moving a licensing fee to a development fee.

If anyone can correct these numbers please do so.


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## tall1 (Aug 9, 2005)

Wolffpack said:


> Based on multiple sources on the 'net, none verified, I have seen reference to DTV paying < $1.00 per subscriber to Tivo for licensing. Given the fact DTV charges each subscriber $4.99 for the Tivo DVR, they should be making $$$ there.
> 
> Also, does anyone know the actualy agreement between DTV and Tivo? I'd guess, when paying licensing you're not paying development costs. With NDS doing the development and not paying licensing then DTV is paying the development costs. I just don't see in any way that DTV going internal for a DVR will save any $$$. They're just moving a licensing fee to a development fee.
> 
> If anyone can correct these numbers please do so.


But D* has increased the DVR fee to $5.99 - $0.00 licensing fee = approx. a 50% increase in revenue.

My speculaton (and I got skewered for this in another thread) is their R&D is pretty low because they already had a working Sky+ box. Right or wrong I am sure they thought they could leverage the Sky+ platform R&D.


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## ISWIZ (Nov 18, 2005)

Not bad Wolf, I only disagree with the part about, "the majority of customers have low expectations and will accept what they are given".

I believe that the majority of folks that post on this and other forums are a group that readily seek new technology and taking it to the limits. My count, 3 DVR boxes for me, 5 for you and I think AD301 has 4. 
What I think is DTV is marketing to Joe and Joan average user and not any of us. That has nothing to do with customer expectations, it has to do with providing the masses a cost efficient DVR that people who know very little about DVR's will see as "cutting edge".
That leaves us "geeks" (no offense to anyone) feeling left out. We are but a pebble in the ocean of potential users and loyal only to our appetite for new technology no matter who owns it. Will some jump, sure and jump again when the next advance is made. Churning away!


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## tall1 (Aug 9, 2005)

ebonovic said:


> Can't we just get along....


Hey, just espressin my opinion. Like I said, I agree that a silly piece of equipment is not going to bring down D* but I think you understate the problems with the R15. But only Tivo owners will be disappointed in those problems IMO, and they are a small minority. Case in point, my admin got an R15 for Christmas (she never had Tivo) and she worships the thing. I don't want to ruin her enjoyment so I almost bit off my tongue.


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## Lord Vader (Sep 20, 2004)

Wolffpack said:


> I have 4 HDVR2 Series 2 DTivos and one HR10-250. All hacked to their appropriate capabilities. I will not give those up until DTV stops supporting them.


Amen! I also have 4 HDVR2's, along with a Sony T60, all modified to the hilt with HMO (save for the T60, of course). I can't imagine having to regress in terms of technology if/when these are no longer supported. With technological advances the way they are these days, it's asinine to go backward when things should keep moving forward. Let's just hope DTV understands this.


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## ad301 (Mar 30, 2004)

tall1 said:


> I am very skeptical that comcast will ever get close to launching anything Tivo-like. I think the Tivo partnership was defensive so that comcast can avoid being sued by Tivo and it gives them access to IP they don't have.


CES may have some interesting announcements. I'm particularly interested in hearing about the stand-alone, dual tuner HD cablecard tivo.



tall1 said:


> Comcast is all about VOD. Thus the reason they have such puny HDDs in their DVRs. The DVR to comcast is a stop gap until they can get all the content on VOD and charge for it. They dont want you recording content and building your own free VOD archive.


I think DirecTV has moved in this direction as well, with the r15. They've reserved over a third of the hard drive for their own use, to push content to use which they hope we will buy. And I can't help but wonder if the reduced feature set of the r15 is a deliberate design choice, for the reason you mention.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

tall1 said:


> Hey, just espressin my opinion. Like I said, I agree that a silly piece of equipment is not going to bring down D* but I think you understate the problems with the R15. But only Tivo owners will be disappointed in those problems IMO, and they are a small minority. Case in point, my admin got an R15 for Christmas (she never had Tivo) and she worships the thing. I don't want to ruin her enjoyment so I almost bit off my tongue.


Hey we agree there... I too think those that never got "hooked" on TiVo, will have less of an issue with the R15... 

That is two now we agree on ....  (just playing with ya)


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## carl6 (Nov 16, 2005)

I fully agree with Tall1 that the R15 was a good business decision by D*, and do not feel that it will result in mass defections. It may result in some defections of dedicated TiVo users.

I agree with ebonovic in that the actual bugs and problems with the R15 will be fixed. My expectation is that by the end of the first quarter (late March, early April) there will probably be another software upgrade that will take care of most, if not all, of the problems. Yeah, I know someone at D*. No, he's not high level, so you've got to take comments with a grain of salt.

Will the R15 ever emulate a TiVo with regard to feature set, user interface, etc.? I would be extremelly surprised if it even came close. Does/will the R15 offer features that the DTivo units do not. Yes.

I really do not see any advantage to "On Demand" if I have a DVR and can record my own programs that I want to watch. However, D* is losing customers to cable because of On Demand. That is a real threat to their subscriber count, and is a greater one than the TiVO advocate base. That is the main reason the R15 was developed. Because it has 60 hours of reserved space on it for "On demand" programming, and much larger user space than cable dvrs, D* plans to use the R15 as it's competing product. For whatever reasons, they chose not to pursue this avenue partnered with TiVo.

From a business perspective, I think D* has made the right decisions and is moving in the right direction. From a technology perspective, I think the R15 will be a pretty good product once the actual bugs are corrected. And, I fully expect the R15 to be part of a larger mutli-room viewing, home theater implementation from D* in the future. But your going to have to do it their way (and probably pay for it) rather than hacking the capabilities in.

Carl


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## tall1 (Aug 9, 2005)

I guess if you never had a DVR, On Demand must seem great. But right now VOD on comcast really sucks. Maybe when they get a lot more content out there and more HD it will be ok. The only use I found for it was for the HBO Original 30 minute series. They are all SD anyway and it saved me from having to record them. But if you have D* On Demand, you already have a DVR and what are the odds there will be something you want to watch that you would prefer over something you recorded yourself? It is like suggestions on Tivo. I have maybe watched one or two suggestions in 2 years; worthless to me.


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

ISWIZ said:


> Not bad Wolf, I only disagree with the part about, "the majority of customers have low expectations and will accept what they are given".
> 
> I believe that the majority of folks that post on this and other forums are a group that readily seek new technology and taking it to the limits. My count, 3 DVR boxes for me, 5 for you and I think AD301 has 4.
> What I think is DTV is marketing to Joe and Joan average user and not any of us. That has nothing to do with customer expectations, it has to do with providing the masses a cost efficient DVR that people who know very little about DVR's will see as "cutting edge".
> That leaves us "geeks" (no offense to anyone) feeling left out. We are but a pebble in the ocean of potential users and loyal only to our appetite for new technology no matter who owns it. Will some jump, sure and jump again when the next advance is made. Churning away!


I agree totally, except, us "geeks" (I am one) are the minority. We're the one's that want what we want, or in my case, want what I've currently got. I believe 90% of R15 customers will be just happy as flys on ..... Just look at the number of current cable and DISH DVR users that don't complain. That 90% will accept what they're given.


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

Lord Vader said:


> Amen! I also have 4 HDVR2's, along with a Sony T60, all modified to the hilt with HMO (save for the T60, of course). I can't imagine having to regress in terms of technology if/when these are no longer supported. With technological advances the way they are these days, it's asinine to go backward when things should keep moving forward. Let's just hope DTV understands this.


I'm with you there. I've even got 3 HDVR2 skeletons (minus the hard drives) just for parts and pieces in the event my "production" units die out. I'm prepared for the future. That future not including a "new breed" DTV DVR. :grin:


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## Lord Vader (Sep 20, 2004)

I call these people "minimalists." They remind me of my father in particular. He's got a DTV account with a great Mitsubishi HDTV, a Hughes E86 HD receiver, his locals are OTA HD, and he can get the DTv network HD feeds. So what does he do when he wants to watch a local football broadcast or something else that is available on, say, the network HD feeds? He watches them on some other channel where it isn't HD. He also has a Yamaha DD 7.1 AVR system but has the audio set to 2-channel because he says the 7-channel sound is "too loud."


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## ad301 (Mar 30, 2004)

ISWIZ said:


> Not bad Wolf, I only disagree with the part about, "the majority of customers have low expectations and will accept what they are given".
> 
> I believe that the majority of folks that post on this and other forums are a group that readily seek new technology and taking it to the limits. My count, 3 DVR boxes for me, 5 for you and I think AD301 has 4.
> What I think is DTV is marketing to Joe and Joan average user and not any of us. That has nothing to do with customer expectations, it has to do with providing the masses a cost efficient DVR that people who know very little about DVR's will see as "cutting edge".
> That leaves us "geeks" (no offense to anyone) feeling left out. We are but a pebble in the ocean of potential users and loyal only to our appetite for new technology no matter who owns it. Will some jump, sure and jump again when the next advance is made. Churning away!


I completely agree with this.

BTW, for the record:
main tv room: 2 hr10-250s HD directivos
1 dsr6000 series1 directivo
1 Series2 stand-alone tivo
1 Comcast 6412 HD dvr
bedroom: 1 dsr6000
1 Sony series1 stand-alone tivo (original tivo, still going strong after 4.5 yrs)
basement rec room: 1 r10 directivo
(formerly 1 r15 directv dvr)

The bedroom will be going HD in about a month.
Call me crazy.


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## Wolffpack (Jul 29, 2003)

Lord Vader said:


> I call these people "minimalists." They remind me of my father in particular. He's got a DTV account with a great Mitsubishi HDTV, a Hughes E86 HD receiver, his locals are OTA HD, and he can get the DTv network HD feeds. So what does he do when he wants to watch a local football broadcast or something else that is available on, say, the network HD feeds? He watches them on some other channel where it isn't HD. He also has a Yamaha DD 7.1 AVR system but has the audio set to 2-channel because he says the 7-channel sound is "too loud."


You must be a long lost sibling. My dad's the same. He even purchased a $1200 HP laptop to replace his WebTV a year and a half ago. The Laptop has been turned on maybe twice since the WebTV is just so easy to pick up in his LazyBoy and check email.

He takes digital video and pics on his Sony Hi8 camera. Then copies them to VRS or does a WebTV capture from the VHS feed to email his pics to us. Talk about high quality pics.


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## nabsltd (Nov 18, 2005)

mya23rd said:


> As time goes by this disadvantage is becoming more evident. Consider the fact that true Video on Deman is not possibly thru satellite.


Of course, if you give everybody a DVR, then who needs VOD, since VOD generally only allows access to things that you have already paid for in some way. So, just set up the recording for yourself.

Or, put in a really big hard drive and just automatically download "VOD" stuff as low-priority recordings that don't appear in the same list as the user-scheduled recordings. But, don't set aside part of the hard drive for them...just use free space (somewhat like TiVo's "Suggestions").


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## nabsltd (Nov 18, 2005)

tall1 said:


> They don't have to pay any licensing to Tivo


Is $1.22 per TiVo/DirecTV sub that much? They get $4.99 from us, so that's still $3.77 in DirecTV's pocket. I guess with the hike to $5.99 that happened at almost the same time the NDS DVR came out tells us that, yes $3.77 isn't enough...they want $5.99.



> Also, they can sell (or give away) their own DVR to unsuspecting customers


They can do this with DirecTiVo's, too, since TiVo doesn't get a dime from the sale of a DirecTiVo.


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## carl6 (Nov 16, 2005)

nabsltd said:


> Is $1.22 per TiVo/DirecTV sub that much?


Well, multiplied by 1,000,000 or so subscribers it adds up. D* is looking to put more dvrs out there, that number could be 5 to 15 million over the next couple of years. Would you want to give up a millions of dollars a month if you didn't have to?

Carl


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## tall1 (Aug 9, 2005)

nabsltd said:


> Is $1.22 per TiVo/DirecTV sub that much? They get $4.99 from us, so that's still $3.77 in DirecTV's pocket. I guess with the hike to $5.99 that happened at almost the same time the NDS DVR came out tells us that, yes $3.77 isn't enough...they want $5.99.
> 
> They can do this with DirecTiVo's, too, since TiVo doesn't get a dime from the sale of a DirecTiVo.


I believe NDS manufactures the D* Plus DVR. So the the revenue is switched from one pocket to the other. It doesn't go to Hughes, Phillips etc.


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## Earl Bonovich (Nov 15, 2005)

Humax is the actually assembler of the the current R15s...

IIRC Philips is going to start assembling them as well, soon.


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