# Sirius Challenge



## Nick (Apr 23, 2002)

This will be the quarter that defines Sirius Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: SIRI). With Howard Stern's arrival in January and the NFL in high gear, this holiday-spiced period is what will either justify the stock's considerable market cap or doom the company to fall even further behind XM Satellite Radio (Nasdaq: XMSR) in subscriber count.

Yesterday, Sirius announced that it had concluded its third quarter with 2.17 million subscribers and landed 359,000 new accounts for the period. XM did substantially better. It added 617,000 new listeners to close out the quarter with 5.03 million...

More @ Motley Fool


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## deraz (Sep 25, 2004)

According to these numbers, XM actually lost market share. The quarter started with XM having 70.9% and Sirius had 29.1%. In the quarter 36.4% of new subscribers chose Sirius and 62.6% chose XM.


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## Richard King (Mar 25, 2002)

Ah, but that's the deal with statistics. If XM had 100 customers at the beginning of a quarter and Sirius had 50, Sirius only needs to add half as many +1 subs as XM to gain market share. When you start with a smaller base it's a lot easier to gain market share.


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## Nick (Apr 23, 2002)

My thoughts, perzactly. :yesman:

If "NickSat" has one subscriber, and adds one, it's a 100% increase.

If "DickSat" has ten subscribers, and adds one, it's only a 10% increase.

I would probably not sub to a service named "DickSat". Why do you think "Little Richard" 
calls himself "Little _Richard_" in the first place? :lol:

:thats:


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## Richard King (Mar 25, 2002)

And, why did "Tricky Dick" change his name to "Resourceful Richard"?


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## WTx (Oct 22, 2005)

Numbers numbers. I hope both can be successful as competition is better for the customer IMO.


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## deraz (Sep 25, 2004)

According to bigcharts.com:
Do a one month chart on Sirius and XM to see how they have done since this thread:

SIRI up about 20%
XMSR down about 5%


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## AllieVi (Apr 10, 2002)

Richard King said:


> Ah, but that's the deal with statistics. If XM had 100 customers at the beginning of a quarter and Sirius had 50, Sirius only needs to add half as many +1 subs as XM to gain market share. When you start with a smaller base it's a lot easier to gain market share.


I don't see a problem with deraz's statement:

_"According to these numbers, XM actually lost market share. The quarter started with XM having 70.9% and Sirius had 29.1%. In the quarter 36.4% of new subscribers chose Sirius and 62.6% chose XM."_

To maintain its 70.9% share, XM would have to get at least 70.9% of new subscribers. It got 62.6%, so its overall share fell. Maybe not by much (or even enough to matter), but the claim is still perfectly valid.


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## obrienaj (Apr 8, 2004)

Anyone want to argue with me about my thoughts that a large part of the reason XM has more subscribers is simply because name "XM" is a cooler sounding name ? Sirius just does not sound as "hip".

Andy'


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## Richard King (Mar 25, 2002)

XM has more subscribers because they had a big head start. First to the market usually ends up with more customers (at least for a while).
XM launched nationally on July 10, 2001. Sirius launched nationally one year later, in July 2002.


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## mvaneps (Nov 19, 2005)

I think one reason XM has more subscribers is because the equipment is better. For me, the programming on Sirius is waaaaaay better. I like the NFL, I LOVE the NBA, and I am a Howard Stern fan. If it wasn't that the programming was significantly better I would prefer XM where you might actually be able to get a signal indoors. I have a sportster in my car but the place I would probably do the most listening is in my office. I have a non opening window that faces west. I can't even get a hint of a signal. I know some people in my building that don't even have a window and can get XM. I am holding out hope that Sirius will somehow figure this out.


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## Richard King (Mar 25, 2002)

The reason that they are able to get a signal indoors is because the signal is most likely coming from a repeater, not the satellite. Because of the difference in satellite transmission modes, XM has lower site lines to the satellite requiring repeaters in nearly every major city. While Sirius has some repeaters, they are much fewer than XM has to have for the system to work. I have a friend here who is picking up Sirius with the antenna sitting on his coffee table in the living room. Somehow he has the right line of site from that spot.


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