# LIL lead?



## BrettR (Apr 24, 2002)

When Echostar 8 becomes active, how many markets can Dish add that are new? Without merger, how many markets can Dish carry and how many for DirecTV. When will DirecTV's next spotbeam be launched. Will Dish have the lead over DirecTV for somewhile in local-into-local? I have read that both might be able to do up to 100. Is this true?

The thing about the smaller markets is their stations may not transmit from one location. The demand for LIL may be higher, but the station packages might only include 6-7 channels and the DMA sizes are smaller.


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## bryan27 (Apr 1, 2002)

At this point it really depends on which markets are carried, and where they will fit on the beams as to how many markets can be carried.

Stations in nearly all markets don't transmit at the same location. It doesn't matter where a station transmitts from the provider(s) will have to point an antenna in the station's direction.

Smaller markets have a lot less than 6-7 channels.
Markets above 150 have less than the 4 major nets and PBS, and many markets between 100-150 have less than 5.


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

In their FCC filings Dish claims without the merger they will do about 80 markets. It is not a matter of carrying capacity (dish has enough for all DMAs if they wanted to), but whether or not the market is big enough to have enough subscribers to pay for the costs. They will probably do around the top 80 markets and a handful of small convenient markets. Dish/Direct wont want to launch another spot beam satellite to pick up smaller markets, they are expensive and the markets will not have enough subscribers to pay for it.


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## BrettR (Apr 24, 2002)

What about room on the spotbeam? As in case of Waco, a small market that got carried. Will E* have room on spots for many markets over DirecTV?


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## Karl Foster (Mar 23, 2002)

> _Originally posted by BrettR _
> * Will Dish have the lead over DirecTV for somewhile in local-into-local? *


Dish doesn't lead Directv now, and probably won't for a long while. Here is what I have researched and posted to another forum about a week ago:

Just so everyone knows where LIL stands as of today. Using the 2002-2003 Nielsen rankings of DMA's:

D* currently serves , or has immediate plans to serve 51 cities with a total potential viewership in those cities of 71,601,360.

E* currently serves, or has immedate plans to serve 48 cities with a total potential veiwership in those cities of 66,826,980.

While E* is adding many cities in the DMA 70 range and lower, they have skipped some key cities with millions of potential viewers. Some of those would be Baltimore (24), Hartford (27), Milwaukee (31), and Columbus (34). E* can add Reno (114), Waco (93), Burlington (91), and Tucson (74), and that doesn't equal the potential subscriber base of Baltimore by itself. E* has made some very interesting choices when adding locals IMHO.

E* will have a lot of ground to make up (about 5,000,000 potential viewers) to be on equal footing with D* on LIL.


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

When E* gets E8 working it will have slightly more capacity on spots than D* does. D* LIL satellite was much more agressively designed than E7 or E8. E7 and E8 together have more LIL spots than D-4s, but up until now with just E7, E* only had about half the spots as D* had.


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## Karl Foster (Mar 23, 2002)

> _Originally posted by Mike123abc _
> *When E* gets E8 working it will have slightly more capacity on spots than D* does. D* LIL satellite was much more agressively designed than E7 or E8. E7 and E8 together have more LIL spots than D-4s, but up until now with just E7, E* only had about half the spots as D* had. *


That I understand. What I don't understand is the choices for LIL that Dish put forth (other than political posturing). It seems that choosing Harrisburg over Baltimore, Burlington over Hartford or Albany, Tulsa over Memphis, Fresno over Las Vegas, etc. It is great for the cities that get LIL by Dish, but it seems that they are adding quantities of markets, rather than quantities of households. I just don't get it, but that's just me.


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

Well some of it is to do with where the spot beams are on E7. E7 has a spot on OK/KS so Tulsa/OKC/KC were picked up on it. There is no spot on TN. E8 has a spot on Las Vegas, so it will be picked up there. 

E8 has 4 transponders in 2 spots on the NE area (PN - ME), so I expect it to fill in the rest of the larget NE markets. 

But, one thing is for sure, E* wont pay a nickle more than they want to for a station. So, some markets are probably hung up on some LIL stations wanting more money.


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## Karl Foster (Mar 23, 2002)

Thanks. I'm not particularly sharp on my spot beam trivia!  

Have a nice evening in TX. It is snowing here already


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## btbrossard (Oct 4, 2002)

> _Originally posted by BrettR _
> *When Echostar 8 becomes active, how many markets can Dish add that are new?*


An E* CSR sent me the following e-mail a few days ago:



> Dear Mr. Brossard,
> 
> Thank you for your e-mail. DISH Network does not currently offer local channels in your area. We offer locals from 47 markets now. At the launch of our last satellite, Echo VIII, we announced plans to provide local networks from 26 more markets. Through the successful launch of Echo VII, our seventh satellite on 02/21/02, and Echo VIII launched on 8/22/02, we plan to be able to provide 30 more...a total of more than 90 markets for local networks! Therefore, we are confident that you will see your city's locals available in the near future.


/Benjamin


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## Bhupen (Apr 15, 2002)

They'll KILL DirecTV. Oh yeah, they already are doing so. First Radio Shack Walmart exclusivities broken, NHL exclusivity broken, then NBA league pass exclusivity, then a huge local channel market lead over DirecTV. Not to mention a future lead in HDTV, an existing lead in international programming, better distant network offerings.

DirecTV better hope merger goes through.


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## Geronimo (Mar 23, 2002)

I am a DISH sub but Bhupen you are dreaming.


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

Dish will probably pull ahead for a while with LIL if no merger, then next year DirectTV will launch a new sat (directtv-7s) and they will have some more spots on 119 to add more markets. Without a merger they have both said they would do around the top 80 or so markets, plus a few extras that they may have room for on spots.

No doubt Dish has gotten a lot stronger while this merger chaos has gone on, but to say they are way ahead of D* is going a bit far.


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## Karl Foster (Mar 23, 2002)

> _Originally posted by Bhupen _
> *....then a huge local channel market lead over DirecTV. ....
> 
> DirecTV better hope merger goes through. *


Must I say it again? Directv is currently kicking Dish Network's butt in LiL with about 5,000,000 more potential subs having access to Directv LiL over Dish Network LiL.

Dish Network is adding cities left and right that are below the 70th largest DMA. They still have no LiL in Baltimore, Milwaukee, Hartford, Columbus, or Memphis. These are HUGE markets that Directv has LiL exclusivity. Dish can go after all the Reno's, Fresno's, and Colorado Springs they want. When the day is done, though, Directv still offers more potential customers LiL than Dish Network.

BTW - Directv never had an exclusive on NHLCI or NBALP. Digital cable systems nationwide also offer these packages. It is still a good deal for Dish subs, just not the nail in the coffin that is being preached.

Put down the Dish pom-poms and do some research. Directv isn't nearly as evil as you are painting it out to be. They provide an excellent product with superior equipment to 3.000,000 more subs than Dish Network. Our equipment works as it is supposed to, and Directv adds LiL to cities where they can get the most subs, not the most markets.

While you are pumping up Dish Network so much, please find out for me when the kinks will be worked out of Dish Network PVR's so those of us who may have to switch to inferior equipment can have our concerns put at ease.


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## btbrossard (Oct 4, 2002)

> _Originally posted by Bhupen _
> *DirecTV better hope merger goes through. *


*Echostar* better hope the merger goes through.

As *karl_f* said, DirecTV is doing a better job with the LIL programing. Although it may not be a big deal to some people, LIL programing is a main sticking point with a lot of potential satellite customers.

When we have friends over, one of the first questions I get asked is "Do you get local channels on that thing?" Most often the response is "who cares about the 200+ other channels you can get for the same price as regular cable, without locals, who cares about satellite."

I live in Milwaukee. I find it frustrating that E* will add cities like Waco, Reno, and Grand Rapids when they don't even offer locals to a major market like Milwaukee.

E* needs to get its ducks in a row and stop preaching merger. I have news for Mr. Ergen. Pigs will fall out of the sky before a merger that creates a monopoly in pay TV for large parts of the country is approved.

/Benjamin


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## jeffwtux (Apr 27, 2002)

If it is true that some stations are asking for too much money, Charlie should make that known do what they did with that Young Broadcasting fiasco, publish the names and phone numbers of the managers in charge and tell people to demand a more reasonable carriage deal.


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## Bhupen (Apr 15, 2002)

> _Originally posted by karl_f _
> *
> 
> Must I say it again? Directv is currently kicking Dish Network's butt in LiL with about 5,000,000 more potential subs having access to Directv LiL over Dish Network LiL.
> ...


26 more local markets with launch of E*8 according to that email. Its likely Dish will add many of the major markets that are missing.

And one DBS provider cannot have exclusivity of a market. Its against FCC rules. So Dish Net. can add Milwaukee, and all those markets when they accomodate space and get the contracts signed.

And you wanta know something about Directv's 119 markets? I remember when Directv put Baltimore at 119 and Washington at 101, yet the big CE stores plus KMart Walmart Radio Shack around the Baltimore area were mainly advertising the 18" dish. The oval dish was not standard equipment (for 2 years 2000, 2001) and many CE stores which Directv paid for exclusivity in the past were not ensuring the oval dish sale in these Baltimore area counties. Directv was also carrying a meager 4 channels without WB or UPN also at the time, while most people in that area can pick up up to 20 stations over the air for free, and the big DC stations on cable. Dish may have lost a potential market, but Directv hasnt captured significant amount more customers there.

The same is happening in markets like New Orleans today. The oval dish is still not standard equipment there, meaning many potential new subscribers may just purchase a system with the 18" dish then find out later they dont have access to the locals. Dont see how this is logical.

Directv did have DBS exclusivity for their sports packages! DISH Network has exclusivity for certain international programming now locking DirecTV out for a couple years. Directv didnt do anything when they had the chance, but cram in more locals trying to not let Dish surpass them. They used much of the 119 capacity for locals.

But Dish will manage to surpass them anyways with more conus and side slots. Do you know the big international market Directv continues to neglect? There was the Kelly broadcasting mess, but that didnt include the vast majority of available international channels that either Globecast and Dish have made contracts with, which DirecTV ignored (but what to expect when the service is bandwith strapped and run by company with a big ego).

Now they are losing their grip even with sports fans. Dish will be able to offer NHL CI, possibly NBA League Pass. Dish already carries most regional sports networks, all the ESPNs, TBS, TNT which also have lot of NBA programming, plus sells superstations more distant networks like Denver, and the sports package for $4.99 (compared to $12 on Directv).

Dish's basic equipment works, maybe their PVRs aren't the best (still a PVR 508 is considered big improvement over what the cable companies offer). Dish continues to pull in more subscribers per quarter over DirecTV, churn is less, and Dish is making a profit. They even still sell the low end packages like AT 50 that Directv wont even compete against. DirecTV is a fine service, but where are they headed, do they want to be the no.2 satellite provider? I hope NewsCorp gets Directv, maybe it will shake things and make Directv a more competitive service.


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## Mike123abc (Jul 19, 2002)

Echostar has the definite advantage of more transponers both CONUS and wing satellites. It looks like E* worked to save money by launching much less sophisticated spot beam satellites. This essentially negates a lot of the advantages of the extra transponders. Remember any national programming on the wings has to be duplicated. This cuts wings in half.

When D-7s launches DirectTV will have the advantage in LIL again. Given the larger number of spots, it will save them on CONUS transponders (E* will have to serve a bunch of markets on CONUS because not enough spots on E7/E8 and no spots pointing to some markets at all).

Echostar has the advantage only if it wants to use it. And that will take a lot of cash (i.e. more satellites). It is not clear if they will use it. For example they could put up spot satellites on 61.5 and 148 and do HDTV into top markets.


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