# DirecTV reports much better Q3 results than DISH



## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

DISH for Q3 = 110,000 net new subs, *a drop of 62.7%* from last year
DirecTV for Q3 - 240,000 net new subs, *an increase of 45%* from last year

DISH for Q3 = *churn rate of 1.94%*, DirecTV for Q3 *churn rate of 1.61%*

Also, the tone of the two press announcements is totally different, DISH presenting a pessimistic view, DirecTV presenting a very positive view.


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## jtn (Oct 18, 2007)

ScoBuck said:


> DISH for Q3 = 110,000 net new subs, *a drop of 62.7%* from last year
> DirecTV for Q3 - 240,000 net new subs, *an increase of 45%* from last year
> 
> DISH for Q3 = *churn rate of 1.94%*, DirecTV for Q3 *churn rate of 1.61%*
> ...


Maybe it's time for a marriage of the two companies.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

And let's not forget that DirecTV said about 60% of its new subs took advanced products (HD and or DVRS), and that DirecTV has an upfront lease fee while DISH gives them away. 

I am not pretending to have the anwers as to why (I surely can guess), but those trends don't look very good for DISH at the moment.


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## RAD (Aug 5, 2002)

I'm going to be curious to see what the 4th qtr numbers will look like since the 3rd qtr only covered a couple weeks of the HD rollout.


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## Lord Vader (Sep 20, 2004)

Indeed, RAD. Also, the holiday season comes into play, and its impact upon D*'s numbers ought to be interesting.


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

jtn said:


> Maybe it's time for a marriage of the two companies.


Why?


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## TermiNader (Jul 10, 2007)

jtn said:


> Maybe it's time for a marriage of the two companies.


If they do, DIRECTV better get a real good pre-nup.


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## RandCfilm (Aug 17, 2006)

TermiNader said:


> If they do, DIRECTV better get a real good pre-nup.


:lol:


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## Ken S (Feb 13, 2007)

What I find interesting is the difference in ARPU between the two.

Dish ARPU approx $66
DTV ARPU approx $80


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## tonyd79 (Jul 24, 2006)

Ken S said:


> What I find interesting is the difference in ARPU between the two.
> 
> Dish ARPU approx $66
> DTV ARPU approx $80


Does this surprise you? Dish always sold itself as the less expensive alternative and doesn't have EI or ST. DirecTV has always courted the bigger spenders.


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## saleen351 (Mar 28, 2006)

ScoBuck said:


> DISH for Q3 = 110,000 net new subs, *a drop of 62.7%* from last year
> DirecTV for Q3 - 240,000 net new subs, *an increase of 45%* from last year
> 
> DISH for Q3 = *churn rate of 1.94%*, DirecTV for Q3 *churn rate of 1.61%*
> ...


Did they add 110k total or added 110k minus the churn which equals?


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## krock918316 (Mar 5, 2007)

saleen351 said:


> Did they add 110k total or added 110k minus the churn which equals?


Gross additions minus churn equals Net Subscriber additions.


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## jtn (Oct 18, 2007)

ScoBuck said:


> DISH for Q3 = 110,000 net new subs, *a drop of 62.7%* from last year
> DirecTV for Q3 - 240,000 net new subs, *an increase of 45%* from last year
> 
> DISH for Q3 = *churn rate of 1.94%*, DirecTV for Q3 *churn rate of 1.61%*
> ...


DirecTV will have higher earnings since they are a bigger company, and have more revenue, customers than Dish Network.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Frankly, this is not good news for ECHOSTAR - as it comes in the quarter BEFORE the new DirecTV programming will play a substantial part - and as it is already HALFWAY thru the 4th Quarter, and DISH has not made any matching HD programming additions - or announcements of any to come, they could have a pretty bad 4th Quarter as well.


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## RAD (Aug 5, 2002)

ScoBuck said:


> ...and as it is already HALFWAY thru the 4th Quarter, and DISH has not made any matching HD programming additions ...


The did add some, like TBS-HD. 

To be honest E* did add some new HD like BTN with all the alternatives and some more RSN's, just not channels like USA, Sci-Fi or FX which looking at some of the E* customers responses since they're not 24x7 HD they don't want them anyway.


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## itguy05 (Oct 24, 2007)

tonyd79 said:


> Does this surprise you? Dish always sold itself as the less expensive alternative and doesn't have EI or ST. DirecTV has always courted the bigger spenders.


Which I don't get - when I compared Dish to DTV, here's what I found:

DTV Plus HD/DVR - $59.99 (1-12 mo), $69.00 (13-24 mo)
Dish Everything 250 + HD + DVR = $63.97 (1-18 mo), $83.97 (19-24 mo)

Surely not the less expensive alternative for these things.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

jtn said:


> DirecTV will have higher earnings since they are a bigger company, and have more revenue, customers than Dish Network.


We are talking about growth - new subscribers. DISH has had more adds in the past couple of years than DirecTV - so this is a bit different than recent results.


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## jtn (Oct 18, 2007)

ScoBuck said:


> We are talking about growth - new subscribers. DISH has had more adds in the past couple of years than DirecTV - so this is a bit different than recent results.


Alright, but remember DirecTV has atleast 4 million more customers than Dish.


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## JLucPicard (Apr 27, 2004)

itguy05 said:


> Which I don't get - when I compared Dish to DTV, here's what I found:
> 
> DTV Plus HD/DVR - $59.99 (1-12 mo), $69.00 (13-24 mo)
> Dish Everything 250 + HD + DVR = $63.97 (1-18 mo), $83.97 (19-24 mo)
> ...


I think a big part of D*s ARPU being higher is the sports subscriptions that people get through D*. Base packages may be higher on E* before adding on ST, EI and the like to the D* base sub.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

jtn said:


> Alright, but remember DirecTV has atleast 4 million more customers than Dish.


They have 3 million more not 4. (at least until 6 months from now).

That has nothing to do with who signs up today. When I signed up I didn't know AND DIDN'T care how many subs DirecTV (or DISH) had. That means NOTHING to a new subscriber.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

And as discussed between me and Mr. Long last month:

*DISH had 8.18 million subs in Dec of 2002 and 13.58 in June of 2007 - they added 5.40 million.

D* had 11.2 million subs in Dec 2002 and 16.3 in June of 2007 they added 5.10 The difference between the 2 is 300,000 in 5 years.*

Guess What - 
If DirecTV duplicates what it did last quarter and beats DISH by 140,000 net new subs, they will make back the past 5 years IN 6 MONTHS! I bet they do.


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## jtn (Oct 18, 2007)

Newspapers are not factual. Newspapers express opinions like members here. Only in a court of law.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

jtn said:


> Newspapers are not factual. Newspapers express opinions like members here. Only in a court of law.


With all due respect (next time read the posts). I am quoting directly from BOTH COMPANIES' 10-Q filings with the SEC, that were posted last week. Those ARE FACTS.

Those sub numbers, and company comments are directly from those filings. I also stated quite clearly the part that is MY OPINION!

Have a nice day, :lol:


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

If you want to learn - here are both of them for you to read - there is lots of interesting stuff in these:


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## Dolly (Jan 30, 2007)

D :hurah:


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## Ext 721 (Feb 26, 2007)

Part of the defection lies in the "I paid tons for my HD set, I want the most HD channels" crowd...

and yes, D* will keep drawing those from E* (who had the most HD for a good while recently)

and E* will keep trying the funky monkey math to claim they have the most, until that fails towards years end.

I think the most accurate count gives D* a nice edge if you INCLUDE the voom channels, and a huge blowout if you don't.

Having never seen Voom, other than swapping out some of their equipment for D* back in the day, I don't have an opinion on the channels, but the usual opinion I hear is "except for (poster's one or two favorites) they are absolute crap"


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

DISH Network stock today is down over $6.00 per share, over 12% drop.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071112/echostar_communications_out_of_the_gate.html?.v=1


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## Richard King (Mar 25, 2002)

I wish I had some spare cash sitting around to buy some Dish options with.


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

I agree - but only because AT&T will pay over market price to buy them -


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## ScoBuck (Mar 5, 2006)

Dish Network stock ended the day today down $7.68 a share, a loss of 15.83%


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## islander66 (Oct 16, 2007)

What if ATT buys D*?

I think they should if they can. I'll look look forward to more information.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

There's a post in the OT forum (or was it general) saying that DirecTV stock was taking a hit today as well.

Stocks often do not reflect actual value in a company, but rather speculation on value. Think Enron and its high stock values even when the company was worth next to nothing.

Despite the lofty sentiments usually considered about stock trade in general... it is often little different than gambling. No matter which team you get on, the game plays out on the field... similarly, no matter which stock you invest in the company performs or fails on its own merits.


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## RealityCheck (Apr 3, 2007)

DISH UNDER $40.

Wow, I will sell mine tomorrow first thing! I should have dumped it right when DIRECTV-10 launched, I knew this would be happening.


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## Lord Vader (Sep 20, 2004)

Sell it quickly. DISH is likely to close its doors by Thanksgiving.


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## Stewart Vernon (Jan 7, 2005)

Anyone playing the stock market should know that the time to sell is when the stock is rising in price. If you wait for it to top out, it has nowhere to go but down... and you don't want to sell while it is falling.

Short-term strategies differ from long-term of course, so your mileage may vary... but the general principles still apply. Buy when it is falling, sell when it is rising.


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