# Street Eyes Sat Radio Momentum



## Chris Blount (Jun 22, 2001)

While Sirius continues to gain momentum in the stock market, one Wall Street analyst said investors should not overlook XM Satellite Radio.

Alden Mahabir of Vintage Research said in a research note released Thursday that he sees strong operational momentum for the top satellite radio company, and that should allow XM to meet high Street expectations for the third quarter. The analyst said he expects XM to add roughly 426,000 net subs for the three-month period that ended Thursday.

Mahabir said there are a variety of drivers for XM's success: Increased volume from XM's OEM auto partners, especially as 2005 model vehicles start entering showrooms in September; improved in-store receiver inventories; and small seasonal gains for the third quarter, though third quarter tends to be a flat to slightly better quarter than second quarter.

XM could report third quarter subscriber statistics today or Monday, consistent with recent reporting practices at the company.

While XM is still a favorite, Mahabir said he now favors Sirius over XM as a relative value play, given the recent and consistent strength in XM shares. "That said, we continue to view XM as an attractive holding," he said. Mahabir maintained a "buy" rating on the XM stock and established a year-end 2005 target of $34.

Thursday, Sirius closed up nearly 6 percent to $3.20 while XM closed up at $31.02.

http://www.skyreport.com (Used with permission)


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

Improved in-store receiver inventories? The stores have more Sirius receivers and more in-stock from everything I've seen. Is this the case elsewhere in the country? The auto partners is a good point - but XM's great thing is NASCAR. Sirius's great things are commercial-free children's radio and Elvis Radio. At least, IMHO.


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## LauderDave (Jan 5, 2004)

If Howard Stern moves his show to one of the satellite radio services, that service would add hundreds of thousands of new subscribers. Frankly, I'm waiting to see what he'll do before I commit to either of the providers. I know there are many like me.


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

If Howard Stern goes on Sat Radio, I'm imagining it'll be Sirius since he doesn't have a great relationship with ClearChannel. Personally, I don't care about him, and I don't think it's likely he'll move so get and enjoy a satellite radio now  I'd recommend Sirius - I have it and love it. Better reception than XM. Of course, in the cities, XM has many more repeaters so it maybe evens out in a big city...


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## Steve Mehs (Mar 21, 2002)

> The stores have more Sirius receivers and more in-stock from everything I've seen. Is this the case elsewhere in the country?


Same here in the Buffalo metro area. In talking to sales folks at the three area Circuit Citys and one Best Buy, XM out sells Sirius 5 to 1 to 8 to 1 depending on the store between those four, in both auto head unit installs and plug and play units. The guy at Best Buy said they saw a slight increase in Sirius sales prior to the release of the original Roady, but once the Roady hit shelves and the free home kit came along, the sales of Sirius units declined. So that's the reason why there's more Sirius stuff on the shelves.

Howard is most likely going to move to satellite radio, I'm personally hoping for XM, the number of subscribers could triple. But there are two issues with XM 1) Clear Channels less the 3% holdings in XM, which shouldn't influence Howard, but might, and 2) XM has O&A.


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## juan ellitinez (Jan 31, 2003)

MarkA said:


> Improved in-store receiver inventories? The stores have more Sirius receivers and more in-stock from everything I've seen. Is this the case elsewhere in the country? The auto partners is a good point - but XM's great thing is NASCAR. Sirius's great things are commercial-free children's radio and Elvis Radio. At least, IMHO.


What about NFL,NHL and NBA all games at NO EXTRA CHARGE


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

"What about NFL,NHL and NBA all games at NO EXTRA CHARGE"

I honestly don't care a bit. I have Sirius, and have no interest in it. I'd happily trade the three of them for NASCAR. But I wouldn't trade my flawless MT Highway 35 reception for dropouts due to a mountain blocking the southern sky for about ten miles (and it's RIGHT beside the road - and to be fair Sirius isn't flawless but it's darn close. I asked at a stereo shop and they said XM basically just doesn't work on at least part of that stretch). And yeah, XM's selling better at Best Buy because they do push it much harder and basically tell you to avoid Sirius. But the little guy, doing the opposite (and I think being more honest based on my reception with Sirius) says his Sirius units far outsell his XM units - he said only occasionally does someone buy an XM unit from him. So it depends on what you're pushing. Of course, the fact that a player as big as Best Buy (and Wal-mart also) is pushing XM helps XM a lot.


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## MarkA (Mar 23, 2002)

"If Howard Stern goes on Sat Radio, I'm imagining it'll be Sirius since he doesn't have a great relationship with ClearChannel. Personally, I don't care about him, and I don't think it's likely he'll move so get and enjoy a satellite radio now"

And my prediction comes true  (of course it was almost everybody's prediction. Who siriusly though Stern would go to a ClearChannel owned service?)


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