# OTA/Cable channels viewing crashes in pandemic year



## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

The numbers are beginning to confirm what we already believed - in the midst of the pandemic streaming is replacing traditional TV service.

As might be expected, in OTA and cable channel viewing the temporary ratings gains of March and April couldn't reverse larger, systemic declines on ad-supported networks. Of course, pandemic caused production delays leading to a dwindling inventory of shows on traditional networks further depressing viewing. As streamers saw millions of new subscriptions much of traditional TV sank.

The Big Four broadcast networks all fell at least 10 percent in total viewers and 12 percent or more in the key ad-sales demographic of adults 18-49 from 2019 to 2020. The CW bled 25 percent of its total audience and 40 percent in the 18-49 demo. Of the 69 non-news cable nets only 20 maintained or grew their audience from 2019; on average primetime viewership declined by 10 percent, and 30 fell by more than that while only two, TLC and Pop TV, improved over 2019. Those 57 channels lost an average of 18 percent of their primetime 18-49 audiences.

Numerous exceptions did occur as discussed in The Grim TV Ratings Reality of 2020. But the reality is streaming will dominate in the coming decade, even across rural areas if we see successful expanded lower altitude satellite internet service.

Now we need to watch the prices as the streamers reorganize in the next two years.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

ABC and NBC largely phoned in their Fall season. I don't think they're either surprised or disappointed.

I think once everyone catches up on the streaming offerings, streaming is going to hurt too.

I had planned to keep HBO Max for a while, but after two months (mostly spent watching _Big Bang Theory_ reruns), I'm probably going to leave before my next billing cycle. Maybe I just can't find what I want with their gutless UI but I'm mostly disappointed.


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## James Long (Apr 17, 2003)

How Much Streaming Services Actually Grew During 2020

_The market for streaming services has grown by 37% in 2020, with most of the growth coming from Disney+. The last year has seen the streaming market change significantly, with Disney entering this already highly competitive arena with the launch of Disney+._

The growth is a little misleading as people subscribe to multiple services. Overall it is estimated that 74% of US residents subscribed to a subscription video on demand (SVOD) service in 2019 and 78% subscribed in 2020.

I agree that the lower ratings for OTA was due to the reduction of new content - but being "free" services we can't see people dropping their subscriptions . MVPD and vMVPD subscriptions have not tanked (but they do include non-OTA content as well as SVOD content).


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## 1948GG (Aug 4, 2007)

All very interesting, meanwhile during all this the broadcasters are turning the screws on retransmission charges, especially the large station groups. Some of the cablecos, satcos, and streamers have told them to pound sand, others like DirecTV, despite subscribers fleeing as if they were on the deck of the titanic (and their owner AT&T finding nobody willing to buy them) yanking their subscription prices up to pay these obese stations off. 

As a large number of those folks have gone back to ota antennas to snag the local signals off the air (if they can despite the abysmally weak transmissions after two or more rounds of 'frequency packing') the increasing rapid move to atsc 3.0 around the country means that broadcasters intend to implement encryption as soon as possible to plug what they consider piracy of their signal; btw, where initially there was going to be a requirement that atsc 1.0 of the primary channel would continue for at least five years, current fcc commissioners (including a last minute appointment by trump to fill the seat by vacated pai) it will be several more years before a republican held seat will become open. So that 5 years is becoming less than three, and will probably shortly become two, according to fcc watchers.

So, folks who thought spending a few bucks to get an antenna installed now may shortly find that it was wasted money as those signals dissapear behind a pay wall.


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## harsh (Jun 15, 2003)

1948GG said:


> All very interesting, meanwhile during all this the broadcasters are turning the screws on retransmission charges, especially the large station groups. Some of the cablecos, satcos, and streamers have told them to pound sand, others like DirecTV, despite subscribers fleeing as if they were on the deck of the titanic (and their owner AT&T finding nobody willing to buy them) yanking their subscription prices up to pay these obese stations off.


They don't get to choose when the contracts are up. That said, they could have extended and come to the table when they actually had something of value to offer.


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

1948GG said:


> As a large number of those folks have gone back to ota antennas to snag the local signals off the air...the increasing rapid move to atsc 3.0 around the country means that broadcasters intend to implement encryption as soon as possible to plug what they consider piracy of their signal; btw, where initially there was going to be a requirement that atsc 1.0 of the primary channel would continue for at least five years...that 5 years is becoming less than three, and will probably shortly become two, according to fcc watchers.
> 
> So, folks who thought spending a few bucks to get an antenna installed now may shortly find that it was wasted money as those signals disappear behind a pay wall.


Your projection is the slow death of OTA that began with Netflix in August 29, 1997, in Scotts Valley, California. Sure many folks my age will continue to watch on cable and satellite, but we're in decline as we die off and so are those services. I read about the "wifi satellites" and shifting of movie releases to "TV" and I can't imagine anyone currently under 40 watching OTA 10 years from now.

On the other hand, ad supported streaming will continue to grow. And "viewership" numbers seem to be cropping up even with Netflix offerings. So it may simply be a 21st Century transition from one wired/wireless framework to another all using "Digital Bit Streams."


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## Mark Holtz (Mar 23, 2002)

phrelin said:


> Your projection is the slow death of OTA that began with Netflix in August 29, 1997, in Scotts Valley, California. Sure many folks my age will continue to watch on cable and satellite, but we're in decline as we die off and so are those services.


Just putting the cause on one or two things just over-simplifies the entertainment options. Consider these steps (thanks to research for a Toastmasters speech):

Prior to the 1980s, an American household was very unlikely to own more than one television because of how expensive they were, and often, the viewing choice was dominated by the working father. The drop in the consumer electronic prices allowed households to own multiple televisions. Now, you can watch programming through your mobile phone, tablet, or laptop computer. The transition to digital broadcasting also meant that the televisions went from a device that you just viewed with devices you hooked on to a computer that just happened to view OTA broadcasts.
Prior to the mid-1970s, the only choices that a viewer had was the three big networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) and one or two independent stations. Home Box Office was started in 1972, and was the first viewing alternative, although it took several years for it to get out of the New York City market. Now, we have both over-the-air, cable, and streaming alternatives.
Prior to the 1980s, viewing a program meant that you had to arrange your schedule around when a program was shown, and if you missed it, whether it be in prime time or syndication, it meant waiting _months _for a repeat. A movie such as _The Wizard Of Oz_, _The Sound Of Music_, or _The Ten Commandments_ was not just a movie, it was a annual viewing event. While video cassette recorders (VCRs) were available in the 1970s, it wasn't until the 1980s that they were affordable and people used them to time shift their programming. Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) became available in the early 2000s, and had higher capacities when the drop in hard drive costs. Now, if you miss the program, you can easily catch it on a steaming service... sometimes without the advertising.
VCRs in the 1980s also meant that the studios started releasing their movie catalogs as pre-recorded tapes, although the initial release was very expensive. Many a child of the 1980s spend an afternoon/evening figuring out what to rent for viewing. DVDs meant a transition to selling direct at release, and now those titles are often available at streaming. This has also allowed more obscure and niche (e.g. cult classics, animation beyond "Disney" including Japanese animation, foreign films) to be available for consumption.
In the past twenty years, Internet connectivity speeds went from dial-up modems to high-speed giga-bit connections in the urban and suburbian areas. This allowed you to stream video through a service such as Amazon Prime Video (started in September, 2006) and Netflix (started in January, 2007), but also allowed for other online entertainment options. It became possible to spend an evening participating in a online gaming match as it was to watch a program.
Finally, the nature of the family changed from the 1970s to present. Previously, it was that only one parent (the father) worked while the other parent (the mother) took care of the home and raised the family. Now, both parents work in order to afford a home, and with the online connectivity, the 9-to-5 job has transformed into a job which meant having a early morning or late evening conference call or online meeting. The Covid-19 meant a big transition to a work-from-home environment.
This upcoming January means that it has been two years since I moved to from the Sacramento DMA (#20) to the Dallas-Fort Worth DMA (#5), and I don't know any of the OTA stations beyond KXAS-8 ABC thanks to the AT&T/DirecTV dispute in the past month, and none of the radio stations (yay SiriusXM). Within a year of moving to Sacramento in 1977, I knew the channels by heart (KCRA-3 NBC, KXTV-10 CBS (now ABC), KOVR-13 ABC (now owned by CBS), KTXL-40 (Independent, now Fox)).


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## phrelin (Jan 18, 2007)

Mark Holtz said:


> Just putting the cause on one or two things just over-simplifies the entertainment options. Consider these steps (thanks to research for a Toastmasters speech):
> 
> Prior to the 1980s, an American household was very unlikely to own more than one television because of how expensive they were, and often, the viewing choice was dominated by the working father. The drop in the consumer electronic prices allowed households to own multiple televisions. Now, you can watch programming through your mobile phone, tablet, or laptop computer. The transition to digital broadcasting also meant that the televisions went from a device that you just viewed with devices you hooked on to a computer that just happened to view OTA broadcasts.
> Prior to the mid-1970s, the only choices that a viewer had was the three big networks (ABC, CBS, NBC) and one or two independent stations. Home Box Office was started in 1972, and was the first viewing alternative, although it took several years for it to get out of the New York City market. Now, we have both over-the-air, cable, and streaming alternatives.
> ...


I agree with everything you wrote - must have been a great Toastmasters speech. All those changes led to the current (and will lead to future) changes in 21st Century home entertainment. The most frustrating fact about the change is how unpredictable it has been, and will be I guess.


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## 1948GG (Aug 4, 2007)

The shifts in habits, the 'nuclear family', and technology explosion, with its effect on social changes, political shifts, and all of the results it has in the american culture, has been well documented before and after "Future Shock". 

I spent the bulk of my career improving telecomunications across the planet, thinking that if the cost barriers, whether voice or data traffic, was reduced as close to zero as possible, that on the whole civilization would get better. What I failed to remember is the old Mark Twain adage that "A lie can travel half way around the world while the truth is putting on its shoes". Certainly people like Zuckerberg and his ilk, who sell out to the highest monied dictator and keep a stable of flunkies willing to come to his aid, prove that. Meanwhile, anyone or group trying to point out the lies are drowned out.

There are companies like Evoca that are trying to monetize atsc3.0, but as long as there are satellite companies their product will have limited appeal (to cableless communities) unless the broadcast stations include their main signal as part of the encrypted package, while jacking up the retrans cost to any other carriers, whether sat, cable, or streaming. 

As I have two major dma's on either side of me that have both recently translated to atsc3.0 (Seattle and Portland), both markets which have been recently involved in lengthy retrans negotiations, it will be interesting to see if either if them decide to 'get tough' when the next round comes up.


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## billsharpe (Jan 25, 2007)

The OTA antenna was on my house when we bought it 49 years ago. It's still pulling in a raft of channels, although I seldom watch OTA. It's also great for FM radio reception. The FM band is just above TV channel 6.


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## Glen_D (Oct 21, 2006)

I don't find myself watching much OTA (regardless of whether the channel is actually received free OTA, or via paid cable/satellite subscription) anymore. Many of the network shows are of the singing/dancing/amateur talent/reality genre, which doesn't much interest me. 

Not that many quality network series anymore on those channels, IMO. What little there has been the last few years hasn't seemed to have survived long; and furthermore, the pandemic has delayed the production of new material, in a number of cases.


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## Mark Holtz (Mar 23, 2002)

phrelin said:


> I agree with everything you wrote - must have been a great Toastmasters speech.


I had enough material for 2-3 presentations, and had to cut out material to fit it in a 20 minute speech slot.


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