# What will satellite be like 5 years from now?



## Chris Blount

*WARNING! THIS THREAD IS 5 YEARS OLD! NEWER POSTS BEGIN AT POST #23.*

A lot has changed in the satellite world since DBSTalk was created 5 years ago. I thought it would be fun to start this thread to see what you think satellite will be like 5 years from now when DBSTalk reaches its 10th Birthday. Will we still have DVR's with hard drives? Will the entire country have HD locals?

All speculation welcome. It might be fun to revisit this thread in 5 years just to see who was right.


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## Richard King

> Will the entire country have HD locals?


Yes. As for storage it will be done on some kind of solid state memory similar to a CF card. The hard drive as we know it will be an antique.


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## Mike D-CO5

Unless Satellite can do internet tv and vod and some kind of wi -fi or broadband and finally finish the country's locals , they will be replaced by either cable or the telecos with their product. 

LOCALS need to be finished so they can finally compete with cable in the entire country. The future will be internet tv and true video on demand , not overpriced pay per views. MPeg 4 had better work correctly for picture quality issues and for bandwith storage or they will have trouble competing. 

I think ALA- CARTE will become a reality in the next 5 years as the price for cable and satellite has gone through the roof with yearly price increases. IF not there will be a back lash by the consumers who will start turning off their satellite and cable accounts and getting their video over other means. When you start paying more than $100.00 a month for just tv, you have crossed a line in the sand. People will start cutting back and turning their accounts off entirely if the yearly price increases keep pushing the price through ther roof.


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## audiomaster

I'll probably still be sitting here in the woods waiting for either cable or DSL to get here! And cell phones will probably still only work from some places on the lot! But hey, by then I'll be 65 and RETIRED and won't give a s**t any more!! I may have sold the whole thing off, bought an Airstream and make like Charles Kuralt!:icon_da:

All speculation welcome. It might be fun to revisit this thread in 5 years just to see who was right. [/QUOTE]


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## Stewart Vernon

Think about how far (or rather how not far) we have come in the most recent 5 years...

I suspect that 5 years from now things will pretty much be the same. Some more new SD and HD channels and a few bells & whistles on our receivers... but pretty much the same general state of things as we have now.

5 years isn't very long, and I don't see anything major in the pipe that makes me think anything radical will change in only 5 years time.


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## James Long

Bluetooth to our virtual reality TV goggles. 




Oh, you said five years from now ...

More signal compression ... PQ seemingly the same but the old timers who still remember the high quality analog C Band signals and NTSC broadcasts of days gone by will try to set them straight.

Still two major carriers, perhaps a niche carrier focusing on real cheap satellite (competing against the low E* packages and way lower than D*) but no real third carrier.

Satellite internet affordable and decent due to lack of regular use as traditional high speed methods reach more rural customers.

Satellite VOD actually being on demand ... although not nessisarily immediate. Ask and you shall receive tomorrow (like NetFlix). Immediate VOD available on 'satellite' boxes but not via satellite.


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## LtMunst

Richard King said:


> Yes. As for storage it will be done on some kind of solid state memory similar to a CF card. The hard drive as we know it will be an antique.


I agree. Actually, I think HD-DVD and Blu-Ray aren't go to last too long for the same reason. Only a matter of time before we can buy movies in the store on something resembling a USB key.


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## Nick

In an effort to free up satellite capacity and bandwidth for military and national security purposes, the FCC will force D* and E* to merge, thus eliminating the wasteful duplication of programming that exists today. FCC Chairman Kevin Martin is named CEO of the new conglomerate DBS monopoly which is now called FedSaTV.

Gay-oriented channels/programming will increase to 10% of all tv offerings and will be added to schools' "cable in the classroom" programming.

FCC mandated ala carte has become a fact of life. Sat and cable subscribers have seen their bills rise dramatically while programming diversity (choice) has declined as niche channels fail to draw sufficient numbers for survival.

Multicast must-carry is the law of the land. Broadcast TV stations now average 10 additional sub-channels each, the content of which consist mostly of pre-paid programming -- infomercials and religious programming. DBS and cable providers are now forced to divert bandwidth from news, entertainment and educational programming to make room for the nearly 18,000 new broadcast sub-channels.
It could happen, and judging by the way things are going, it probably will.


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## AllieVi

I expect cable and phone companies will be rolling out improved fiber optic delivery systems bundling phone, TV and broadband in urban/suburban areas. Satellite will not be competitive in such places and large numbers of existing subscribers will abandon their dishes.

Satellite will flourish in rural areas where it will still be the only option. More areas will be served with local HD channels. Dishes will have to be able to "see" more satellites.

Two-way satellite broadband will remain expensive, but be very popular in areas unserved by phone or cable companies. Cellular-based broadband will be more affordable and a viable option in many unwired areas.

Internet delivery of some distant programming will be a big issue as the Internet becomes more robust and broadband systems improve.

AllieVi will still mostly watch a 13" SD TV.


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## Paul Secic

LtMunst said:


> I agree. Actually, I think HD-DVD and Blu-Ray aren't go to last too long for the same reason. Only a matter of time before we can buy movies in the store on something resembling a USB key.


Both formats are shooting themselves in the foot. That key might be Firewire as USB is a bit slow.


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## Stewart Vernon

Paul Secic said:


> Both formats are shooting themselves in the foot. That key might be Firewire as USB is a bit slow.


Actually USB 2.0 is the same or slightly faster than Firewire last time I looked.


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## SamC

IMHO,

- Further LIL rollouts simply do not make return on investment sense. Rather, the providers will cut deals with the remaining super-small market stations to provide network feeds, which is all people want anyway.

- Further consolidation among station ownerships, and the FCC's refusal to enforce its own rules, will result in half the stations in the country being O&Os, and the other half being monopolies where one company own all of the stations in town.

- This will lead to a showdown among ad buying companies and TV companies.

- Digital TV multi-casting will be the failure of the century in most places. Simply put, the market is not there for 20 or 30 OTA channels in most places, either in terms of viewers or ad buyers. Same, even more so, for so-called "HD radio" and its multicasting system.

- The replacement date for analog will remain "in the near future". Some bright person will realize that analog TV will NEVER be turned off and the digital roll out was nothing more than a multi-billion dollar gift of extra bandwidth to mega-corporations for 50 years of loyal watercarrying.

- Cable will be something apartment dwealers and poor people have.

- The virtual video store, using memory and new bandwidth and compression wil provide video on demand in replacement for the current PPV.

- ALC will never happen. If it does it would be the most anti-consumer thing to ever happen, as the cost of the channels you want will be more that the current system of dealmaking.

- The ad supported system of broadcasting will simply die further, as it becomes apparent that people do not watch ads. This will make sports, where people watch live and thus have to see the ads, and where the venues are splashed with ads as well, a much bigger part of TV than even now. The old fashioned system of "product placement" where products are shown by brand name in shows of all types will also be much bigger.

- A DBS box will cost $25, indexed to inflation.

- In SR, most new cars, except the very cheepest, will come ready for a snap in module for whichever SR system the buyer wants. Car makers will realize that pre-installing one brand just alienates customers who want either, or neither, and that most people do not want the "boy racer" hacked up spark-o-matic add-on look either.

- DBS programming will be much like today. The market simply is not there for a lot more niche channels. 

- A new system of even faster ISP will replace cable and phone company systems. Probably over the power companies lines, or a truely wireless system.


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## Paul Secic

SamC said:


> IMHO,
> 
> - Further LIL rollouts simply do not make return on investment sense. Rather, the providers will cut deals with the remaining super-small market stations to provide network feeds, which is all people want anyway.
> 
> - Further consolidation among station ownerships, and the FCC's refusal to enforce its own rules, will result in half the stations in the country being O&Os, and the other half being monopolies where one company own all of the stations in town.
> 
> - This will lead to a showdown among ad buying companies and TV companies.
> 
> - Digital TV multi-casting will be the failure of the century in most places. Simply put, the market is not there for 20 or 30 OTA channels in most places, either in terms of viewers or ad buyers. Same, even more so, for so-called "HD radio" and its multicasting system.
> 
> - The replacement date for analog will remain "in the near future". Some bright person will realize that analog TV will NEVER be turned off and the digital roll out was nothing more than a multi-billion dollar gift of extra bandwidth to mega-corporations for 50 years of loyal watercarrying.
> 
> - Cable will be something apartment dwealers and poor people have.
> 
> - The virtual video store, using memory and new bandwidth and compression wil provide video on demand in replacement for the current PPV.
> 
> - ALC will never happen. If it does it would be the most anti-consumer thing to ever happen, as the cost of the channels you want will be more that the current system of dealmaking.
> 
> - The ad supported system of broadcasting will simply die further, as it becomes apparent that people do not watch ads. This will make sports, where people watch live and thus have to see the ads, and where the venues are splashed with ads as well, a much bigger part of TV than even now. The old fashioned system of "product placement" where products are shown by brand name in shows of all types will also be much bigger.
> 
> - A DBS box will cost $25, indexed to inflation.
> 
> - In SR, most new cars, except the very cheepest, will come ready for a snap in module for whichever SR system the buyer wants. Car makers will realize that pre-installing one brand just alienates customers who want either, or neither, and that most people do not want the "boy racer" hacked up spark-o-matic add-on look either.
> 
> - DBS programming will be much like today. The market simply is not there for a lot more niche channels.
> 
> - A new system of even faster ISP will replace cable and phone company systems. Probably over the power companies lines, or a truely wireless system.


I agree with you on OTA Digital. However shopping channels will flurish on OTA digitals to pay the bills.


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## jonsnow

Mike D-CO5 said:


> I think ALA- CARTE will become a reality in the next 5 years as the price for cable and satellite has gone through the roof with yearly price increases. IF not there will be a back lash by the consumers who will start turning off their satellite and cable accounts and getting their video over other means. When you start paying more than $100.00 a month for just tv, you have crossed a line in the sand. People will start cutting back and turning their accounts off entirely if the yearly price increases keep pushing the price through ther roof.


 I couldn't agree more. But I disagree on the 100 dollar line in the sand. I think the line was crossed a long time ago, when it hit an average of 60 dollars a month when I was watching basically Foxnews and the Sci-Fi channel.

Then there was the introduction of the family package for the remote challenged. Hello, is anyone home at dish? I cannot get Foxnews on the top 60 package. Why? The Sci-fi channel and TCM is banned in the family package. Why? A package that includes coulors which plays music videos with female nudity at the same time tcm is playing the wizard of oz, go figure.


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## Mike D-CO5

jonsnow said:


> I couldn't agree more. But I disagree on the 100 dollar line in the sand. I think the line was crossed a long time ago, when it hit an average of 60 dollars a month when I was watching basically Foxnews and the Sci-Fi channel.
> 
> Then there was the introduction of the family package for the remote challenged. Hello, is anyone home at dish? I cannot get Foxnews on the top 60 package. Why? The Sci-fi channel and TCM is banned in the family package. Why? A package that includes coulors which plays music videos with female nudity at the same time tcm is playing the wizard of oz, go figure.


 I need to start watching the Colors channel. NOw if we could just get Dorothy in the Wizard of Oz dancing naked . :sure:


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## esteg

It will cost twice as much.


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## James Long

esteg said:


> It will cost twice as much.


And still be cheaper than cable. :lol:


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## wkomorow

Over the next five years I predict the people as a whole will have greater access to a wider availability of shows from around the world. Most will be subtittled or in instant translation. Although we will have greater access to programming, I am also convinced that local authorities will have greater control over what can be shown in each juristication. Much as the sports black out occur today, local authorities will have the power to block out shows based on content.


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## Phil T

I think D* & E* will switch out all the analog feeds to digital but HD will still be limited because of bandwidth.

Technologies like Slingbox will allow lap tops and cell phones to become the new bedroom, kitchen, auto or anywhere TV.

It seems to me that being able to watch tv when and where you want to will win out over High Definition. I think DVR's are here to stay but sales of small TV's will drop way off with people watching on laptops and cell phones.

Here is the future that may swallow up a bunch of cable and satellite companies:

http://www.apple.com/


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## Larry Caldwell

Chris Blount said:


> A lot has changed in the satellite world since DBSTalk was created 5 years ago. I thought it would be fun to start this thread to see what you think satellite will be like 5 years from now when DBSTalk reaches its 10th Birthday. Will we still have DVR's with hard drives? Will the entire country have HD locals?
> 
> All speculation welcome. It might be fun to revisit this thread in 5 years just to see who was right.


This is half predictions and half my own personal wish list:

16:9 as a standard format

More HD programming.

HD locals for everyone is problematic. My local TV stations haven't started HD broadcasting yet. They may not start for years. Of course, we are in the bottom 50 of DMAs, so maybe their technology and satellite technology will converge. I wouldn't count on it in 5 years though.

Video on Demand over the Internet. Satellite receiver integration with the Internet. Reviews of shows and promo web sites linked to the program guide. Previews/Trailers on Demand.

Improved DRM technology that allows free viewing of purchased programming while cutting the pirates off at the knees.


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## harsh

Larry Caldwell said:


> HD locals for everyone is problematic. My local TV stations haven't started HD broadcasting yet. They may not start for years.


I'm assuming that you are referring to Bend (Nielsen #196).

What is Time Warner offering in their HD tier?

KTVZ claims to be offering HD programming on ATSC channel 18.

Do you get your ABC and CBS from Eugene? Many, many years ago, I remember seeing KEZI on cable in Bend.

As the amount of network HD programming ramps up (especially if they start doing news in HD) and the stations are forced to install digital equipment to meet the cutoff, there will be more HD programming relayed in even the smallest markets.


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## Larry Caldwell

harsh said:


> I'm assuming that you are referring to Bend (Nielsen #196).
> 
> What is Time Warner offering in their HD tier?
> 
> KTVZ claims to be offering HD programming on ATSC channel 18.
> 
> Do you get your ABC and CBS from Eugene? Many, many years ago, I remember seeing KEZI on cable in Bend.
> 
> As the amount of network HD programming ramps up (especially if they start doing news in HD) and the stations are forced to install digital equipment to meet the cutoff, there will be more HD programming relayed in even the smallest markets.


Nope, Roseburg. We have a couple local stations that don't get uplinked. Instead, I get Eugene satellite locals, but you have to be on top of a really tall hill to get Eugene stations OTA. I can't even get the Roseburg stations from my house, and I'm only 15 miles south of town. In Douglas County, it's cable, satellite, or you don't get TV.


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## Chris Blount

Wow! What an interesting thread. We started this 5 years ago on the site's 5th anniversary.

So, let's do it again!

What will satellite be like 5 years from now (2016). Let the speculation begin!


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## gully_foyle

DirecTV will have added AMC-HD but not yet BBCA-HD as Jaden Smith debuts as The Doctor. 

DirecTV will have 500 sporting events on at any given time.

3D will be 4 years dead.

The DirecTV TiVo will be coming 1st half of next year.


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## yosoyellobo

I did not realize that this thread was five years old. Everything that has been mention so far sounds good plus AMDHD , BBCHD and TCMHD would be nice.


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## MysteryMan

Five years from now new receivers will be available that will make the HR24 series look redundant. NFL Sunday Ticket will cost $400.00. AMC, BBCA, and TCM will be HD on DirecTV but the same people will complain about something else. Chris Blount will launch a new thread on what satellite will be 5 years from now.


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## Stuart Sweet

It's interesting that this thread originated about the same time I joined. 

In the last five years we've seen widespread HD adoption and an explosion of channels. We've seen recording capacities double and equipment costs nearly vanish. We've seen new features and improved picture quality. 

In the next five years we will see your TV content follow you anywhere. I don't know if DIRECTV can solve the issue of having a multi-satellite dish that's self-aiming and small enough to fit in a handheld device, but it may not matter. In five years your DIRECTV subscription will let you watch your recorded programming anywhere and everywhere, in addition to any program you didn't think to record at the time.


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## spartanstew

MysteryMan said:


> Chris Blount will launch a new thread on what satellite will be 5 years from now.


My prediction is that he'll just continue this thread.


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## SayWhat?

Lots of misses in the first 22 posts. A few hits and some of the same-old, same-old.


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## Raidertank

D* will be completely wireless no coax cables from room to room (here's hoping)


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## ndole

Wireless RVU.


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## ndole

Raidertank said:


> D* will be completely wireless no coax cables from room to room (here's hoping)


Shoot, beat me to it :lol:


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## Kevin F

I think that 5 years from now we will be using a 2 way satellite system for delivery.

Kevin


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## Kevin F

"Mike D-CO5" said:


> Unless Satellite can do internet tv and vod and some kind of wi -fi or broadband and finally finish the country's locals , they will be replaced by either cable or the telecos with their product.
> 
> LOCALS need to be finished so they can finally compete with cable in the entire country. The future will be internet tv and true video on demand , not overpriced pay per views. MPeg 4 had better work correctly for picture quality issues and for bandwith storage or they will have trouble competing.
> 
> I think ALA- CARTE will become a reality in the next 5 years as the price for cable and satellite has gone through the roof with yearly price increases. IF not there will be a back lash by the consumers who will start turning off their satellite and cable accounts and getting their video over other means. When you start paying more than $100.00 a month for just tv, you have crossed a line in the sand. People will start cutting back and turning their accounts off entirely if the yearly price increases keep pushing the price through ther roof.


The last part here was semi-right regarding cord cutters. And Mpeg 4 has done pretty well. The opening paragraph was way off though.

Kevin


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## jadebox

When I first subscribed to satellite TV, I was sure that I would only have Dish for about five years before I went crawling back to cable. 

It was obvious, wasn't it, that satellite would never have enough bandwidth available to keep up with cable? Satellite would be only be able to deliver 30 or 40 channels while cable would offer hundreds.

So ... here it is about 15 years later and I'm pretty sure I'm not the right one to be making predictions about the future of satellite TV! 

-- Roger


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## ndole

Kevin F said:


> I think that 5 years from now we will be using a 2 way satellite system for delivery.
> 
> Kevin


I think that's probably unlikely. 2 way delivery includes transmission of data. And like hughesnet, wildblue etc. Directv would be required to meet some pretty strenuous criteria by the FCC. Including mounting the ODU at least 6ft from the walking surface. Not to mention the amount of bandwidth that'd be required to accommodate every subscriber isn't realistic without a whole other fleet of satellites.


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## SayWhat?

Kevin F said:


> I think that 5 years from now we will be using a 2 way satellite system for delivery.


That would require a complete re-work of the system with new LNBs and set top boxes capable of transmitting, plus a re-work of the orbiting satellites to get them to receive and relay customer requests.

And to what end? What would that accomplish that can't be done now by sending a request over the web?


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## bfleish

In 2016 my now 10 year old HR20-700 will still be chugging along and we will be talking about the old days when there was no WHN, Double Play, VOD, HDGUI ect......


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## Kevin F

About the 2 way system: I see your points. I also never knew about the FCC requirements for the transmission of data. I thought it work similar to the way 2-way cable systems currently work, for optimizing VOD.

Kevin


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## maartena

Chris Blount said:


> What will satellite be like 5 years from now (2016). Let the speculation begin!


- HD Channels will have surpassed 250, but many SD channels will still exist. After the 220 mark, the market for HD really becomes more or less saturated.

- Whole home DVR will consist of a single media server on a central location, NOT necessarily near any TV's - but hidden in a closet somewhere, and TV's will have nothing but a VERY small tuner unit. The media server will have 8 or more tuners and a LARGE amount of disk space. The tuner units can be connected either by CAT5 or Wireless if no coaxial cable is available. The media server will also have a blu-ray disc drive, hard drive expansion options, and will have the ability to playback media from a USB connected medium or over the network. A blu-ray can be played on multiple TV's simultaneously.

- Viewers will be able to buy a "Canadian" package, with canadian news channels and general broadcasters, as well as Canadian version of certain channels (e.g. HGTV). The package will, because of broadcast rights and whatnot, not be cheap but be in the $20 range per month. A similar concept will be possible with a time-zone delayed "British" package. It will cost a similar, $20 or so month price.

- TV will become more interactive, especially sports. We already have the 7 in-car NASCAR channels, where you can choose from which car you want to experience the race, and we have had things like FOX Sports experimenting with "dugout view" by playing the regular game on one channel, and nothing but camera view from the home team dug out and open mics on another channel. We will start to see DirecTV (as the sports leader and sports bar choice) deploying channels after their 2013 satellite launch for these kinds of services. Major sporting events will be viewable from a variety of camera angles, and not just 2 cameras but 6 or more. The Superbowl and the World Series will be spread across say.....6 channels, and you choose from where you want to see the game, including home team dugout, away team dugout, and a variety of field and stadium positions in addition to the regular broadcast. Sports bars will LOVE this feature, as they can now play the game on 20 TV's, 10 of which will show the game, and the other 10 will display one of all the other channels. Imagine this: 1 channel shows the batter/catcher. Another channel shows the pitcher. Another channel shows first base and a possible base stealer. Yet another channel shows the home dugout, and their reaction when the batter whacks it out of the park. Viewers in sports bars will be able to see what they want to see, at that particular moment. Sports fanatics will have three TV's in their living room, side to side. 

- WQHD (Wide Quad High Definition, 2650x1440 pixels or 4 times (hence quad) the 720p resolution will have been introduced with a limited number of channels. Some big channels will have launched WQHD, but it won't be more then 10, 15 channels by 2016. Many newer TV's already support this resolution now, and it is starting to replace the 1920x1080 PC resolution at the "high end" PC's and laptops. By 2016 it will be just as common as a 1920x1080 screen now. However, TV is slower to adopt as 1080i suits most stations just fine. There is a niche market of sports and movie channels though that will start to adopt the WQHD standard, or an alternative resolution beyond 1080i.

- On Demand will be HUGE and massive. Satellite providers will start experimenting with new technologies, and perhaps launch a few separate satellites for an "internet" type service through satellite specifically for VOD. Recent scans of DirecTV's satellites revealed some form of test already that pushed video to earth through a number of transponders, based on a VOD principle of some sort. As Satellite has a clear disadvantage in VOD, it will come up with a number of new technologies. As disk space is already cheap, the "home media server" idea describes above, can set aside a few terabytes of the 20+ it will probably have to download "hot" video content already via a push down from satellite, so customers can access it quickly. Of course, the video will still be encrypted with DRM, as the big companies will still have a lot of power.

And last but not least:

- This forum will still exist, and people will still complain about channels that one carrier does carry, and another does not carry.


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## wilbur_the_goose

D* Platinum will cost over $150 per month in 2016.


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## Drucifer

Hope there's a elimination of rain fade.


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## James Long

James Long said:


> More signal compression ... PQ seemingly the same but the old timers who still remember the high quality analog C Band signals and NTSC broadcasts of days gone by will try to set them straight.
> 
> Still two major carriers, perhaps a niche carrier focusing on real cheap satellite (competing against the low E* packages and way lower than D*) but no real third carrier.
> 
> Satellite internet affordable and decent due to lack of regular use as traditional high speed methods reach more rural customers.
> 
> Satellite VOD actually being on demand ... although not nessisarily immediate. Ask and you shall receive tomorrow (like NetFlix). Immediate VOD available on 'satellite' boxes but not via satellite.


Not bad. Perhaps I should start a predictions website.

NetFlix broke out of the box I drew by becoming an "immediate" service more than an overnight DVD. But we've seen more compression, no new satellite competition (although fiber TV is growing) and on demand has grown to be a useful product.

As for the next five years ... more of the same ...


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## scottchez

SAT will be down to only 100 HD channels freeing up SAT capacity for instant on demand.
everything else will be instant on demand either through instant stream from the SAT and or the Internet.


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## TheRatPatrol

I'm hoping 5 years from now everything will be in HD. :sure:


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## Lucavex

A focus on mobile/tablet viewing and on-demand content will become the future of satellite TV. Dish Network and it's sling technology is a foreshadowing technology to what most every company will be accomplishing and exceeding in the coming years.

The operating systems for receivers will attempt to become more of a home media server, delivering VOD, music, movies, and the internet in general, on one home system, even networking with your home PC or video game system to deliver content via wireless or network cable.

3D will continue to be shoved down the consumers collective throats until we as a society simply accept that it's going to happen. This will be accelerated when "Glasses Free" 3D technology improves and becomes more viable.

A satellite and/or cable company will purchase Hulu or a similar service, rather than attempting to create their own system, and simply innovate from there in order to merge VOD and Satellite content via a broadband connection.


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## wilbur_the_goose

Five years ago, who'd have thought:
Blockbuster would be bankrupt
Hollywood video would be bankrupt
VCRs would be rare
Computers would fit in the palm of your hand (iPhone for example)
HD would be routine

Can you imagine what'll happen in the next 5?


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## Tom Robertson

Five years is an interesting time-span right now. TiVo's patents will just barely still be viable--but who will own them?

AllVid "should" be required by then--but I'm guessing just starting at that point since the current schedule is for December 31, 2012. Hence I'm expecting a slip.

If Allvid happens, satellite (and cable) will change radically. Moxi might be a serious DVR force and work on anyone's MSO system. Who else might be a DVR manufacturer? DIRECTV? Echostar? Sony and Samsung probably. 

What else in five years? DIRECTV should have BSS bands in use. But what will that look like? That is a lot of new bandwidth. New LNBs for everyone? New dishes? 

Larger hard drives. More pre-downloaded content? But what will Allvid do?

Gateways with hard drives?

No more basic receivers? Perhaps all will have enough ram for 30 minute buffers. Gateways with buffers?

Lots of cool stuff can be coming. And will be very interesting what the effects of Allvid will be. 

Cheers,
Tom


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## armophob

Well for starters in 5 years we will have our own land-air vehicles that will allow us to go up and readjust the satellites, not just our dish's. But by then the signals will be going directly to our eye implants anyhow.


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## Jeremy W

wilbur_the_goose said:


> Five years ago, who'd have thought:
> Blockbuster would be bankrupt
> Hollywood video would be bankrupt
> VCRs would be rare
> Computers would fit in the palm of your hand (iPhone for example)
> HD would be routine


I know it's simple to sit here five years later and say "I'd have thought all of those things" but it's true.

-The video rental stores were dinosaurs that simply couldn't see that they were becoming obsolete.
-VCRs weren't dead yet, but they were certainly dying.
-The iPhone was announced less than five months after this thread was started, but it wasn't even close to the first smartphone.
-HD was already growing at a very rapid pace.

None of these things are all that surprising if you were into technology back in 2006.


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## Stewart Vernon

wilbur_the_goose said:


> Five years ago, who'd have thought:
> Blockbuster would be bankrupt
> Hollywood video would be bankrupt
> VCRs would be rare
> Computers would fit in the palm of your hand (iPhone for example)
> HD would be routine


Well...

I never sat foot in a Hollywood Video store until their store-closing sales! So... I was neither surprised nor not surprised when that happened.

VCRs were already rare 5 years ago.

Computers in the palm of your hand is actually old tech, even 5 years ago. The PSP came out before that... and the Apple Newton came out WAY before that... several other tablet computers as well... and actually home computers like the TRS-80 Micro-Color Computer and a couple of Timex Sinclair computers were very small... but you had to connect them to a TV for a monitor... still, the computer itself was quite small.

Since HD started in the late 1990s (earlier in Japan)... it really should have been common sooner than it was


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## Rich

armophob said:


> Well for starters in 5 years we will have our own land-air vehicles that will allow us to go up and readjust the satellites, not just our dish's. But by then the signals will be going directly to our eye implants anyhow.


And the To Do list will be just as hard to find. They've found a way to torture us and they are not gonna give in.

And we still won't have BBCA in HD...:lol:

I do hope I'm wrong on both predictions.

Rich


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## harsh

SayWhat? said:


> That would require a complete re-work of the system with new LNBs and set top boxes capable of transmitting, plus a re-work of the orbiting satellites to get them to receive and relay customer requests.


Given the push to implement higher and weaker frequencies, it seems likely that dishes will get even bigger and LNBs will have to be changed out anyway so the ODU probably isn't a consideration.

The only real question is whether they'll be able to find (and retain) competent installers to install them.


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## man_rob

Services like Hulu, Netflix streaming, Vudu, etc (Who knows what new services will appear?) will have gained a lot of ground, while linear programming services become less and less relevant. Traditional cable, and satellite companies will continue to shift their main focus over to such services. Linear services will be still be available, but they will be like SD TV is now, a legacy service. (Linear HD channels may even be removed to make band width for streaming services.) Networks will offer much more programming directly over the internet, reducing the demand for cable and satellite carrier services in favor of faster internet connections.


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## ShawnL25

Dish and Directv will merge or ATT will buy one of them


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## Chris Blount

1. Satellite TV will still be around but both Dish Network and DirecTV will be more into delivering online content. Paradigms will shift into an on-demand culture and satellite will find a way to adjust in order to survive.

2. Transfer of content to mobile devices will be simplified and expanded. 

3. The current VOD programming selection will get very, very large as demand for on-demand content gets popular.

4. Set top boxes will get cut to one required per household. 

5. Deals will be made with Telco providers so data caps will not be a factor.

6. There is still the possibility that the two major satellite carriers will merge as online content becomes bigger and demand for direct broadcast satellite gets smaller.

7. 3D content will expand but only if glassless TV's become a mainstay and are not too expensive.


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## Chris Blount

Mike D-CO5 said:


> ....there will be a back lash by the consumers who will start turning off their satellite and cable accounts and getting their video over other means. When you start paying more than $100.00 a month for just tv, you have crossed a line in the sand. People will start cutting back and turning their accounts off entirely if the yearly price increases keep pushing the price through ther roof.


This was a pretty good prediction especially with the report published this past week.


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## Nick

Looking back five years, there have been several notable advances which most of us now take for granted that, back then, were not even on the average family's tech horizons.

- flat-panel HDTVs (my home has been a CRT-free zone since 2008!)

- 3D tv (like Spring, 3D came in like a lion and went out like a lamb)

- VoIP (never thought I would ever voip, but now I do!)

- IPTV (Netflix, HULU, etc.)

- Skype (video telephony - getting calls whilst still in my jammies)

- tablet computers (a computing device with no keyboard that can't stand up by itself)


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## maartena

wilbur_the_goose said:


> Five years ago, who'd have thought:
> Blockbuster would be bankrupt
> Hollywood video would be bankrupt
> VCRs would be rare
> Computers would fit in the palm of your hand (iPhone for example)
> HD would be routine


I saw all of those 5 coming. 5 years ago I had cable with VOD on demand, $4 movies that also cost $4 at Blockbuster. I saw the end of retail video stores a mile away.

VCRs were already rare 5 years ago. I threw out about 3 of them in 2004 or so because NO ONE wanted them! D:

I saw the palm computers already, as they were already making great progress on those. I had a blackberry 5 years ago that could do a lot of the same things a smart phone can do now.

I also had no doubt that HD would become common like it is now, including new HD type media such as bluray.


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## Phil T

ShawnL25 said:


> Dish and Directv will merge or ATT will buy one of them


In 5 years the government will force AT&T to break up into regional companies because it is becoming a monopoly! (Why does that sound familiar?) :lol:


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## kevinwmsn

1) In 5 years, all DMAs will have locals(not every channel in HD).

2) They will stop making mpeg2 only boxes, moving folks to central dvr for the home and thin clients(RVU) for other recievers.

3) Dec 21, 2012 will be just another day similiar to Y2K. :lol:

4) RVU clients for Tablets/Smart Phones.


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## rasheed

Netflix, Dish, and DirecTV will be part of a studio or other content provider company (either having purchased or merger).

Apple will offer sunglasses or prescription eyeglasses that can be used like iphones or ipads (with hand gestures in the 'air').

Content providers will also have bandwidth distribution divisions (either through acquisition or strong partnership).

The main guide screen will now be program based not channel based for most cable/satellite companies.

DVRs will fade away with preferences for on-demand increasing the demand on bandwidth but reducing the need for local hard drives.

Dish's IPTV services will be more important than the traditional satellite service.

Some content distributors will create a very small base package and allow consumers to 'buy' or 'rent' subscriptions to individual programs or seasons similar to an 'itunes' or 'app store' model. This might be via a monthly account value or other model. This will be as close to a la carte as can be done.

A premium provider (HBO, Showtime, or Starz) will offer a standalone subscription that bypasses distribution partners for the first time.

Major media companies (Viacom, Fox, Disney, Discovery, Scripps, etc.) will drop entire channels as they can no longer get easy bundled carriage and will go to more of a program-oriented service rather than offering channels. This becomes especially popular among kids program and subject-oriented channels (home improvement, food/cooking, spiritiual, history, music, soap operas, news, etc.).

Many OTA subchannels will be used for digital data for VOD and will be popular for mobile devices.

Some television models will have 'direct' connections docking stations for cellphones to use them as a mobile phone with video or speakerphone easily. This might be done initially via STBs.

A significant number of new releases will now be available at home at the same time as movie theater release.

Most sports events will offer camera choices options to viewer on-screen.

A number of major stations will have eliminated their on-air local nightly news program and will either provide it on-demand via content distributors or not at all.

A number of networks will stop doing 30 seconds commercials and start to vary them between 20 and 40 seconds to make fast forward buttons less useful.

Rasheed


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## jsk

DirecTV & Dish will merge
Dish subscribers will get more HD sports
Direct subscribers will get more national HD (including BBCA)
Prices will skyrocket after the merger
HHS will be the last SD channel to be converted to HD but they still will show the same four shows about the flu & bioterrorism over and over, including their extensive coverage of the 1918 flu in Baltimore.


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## Stewart Vernon

Stewart Vernon said:


> Think about how far (or rather how not far) we have come in the most recent 5 years...
> 
> I suspect that 5 years from now things will pretty much be the same. Some more new SD and HD channels and a few bells & whistles on our receivers... but pretty much the same general state of things as we have now.
> 
> 5 years isn't very long, and I don't see anything major in the pipe that makes me think anything radical will change in only 5 years time.


I found my old post from 5 years ago... and I kind of think I nailed it


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## SamC

IMHO, in 5 years:

- Telephones in hotel rooms will be rare, it will just expected that everyone will have a cell phone.
- Every car will come with built in SR, except for the very cheepest.
- Cable will have many more competitors for being an ISP. Breaking cable as an ISP is the key to its death.
- The Longhorn Network will have failed, and similar efforts by other single teams will thus not happen.
- Sports will continue to be distributed mostly as today. 
- Most people, regardless of their provider, will have "national access" to major channels. If you have a package that includes, say, ESPN, you will be able to watch ESPN on your computer, on your cell phone, and on a hotel TV.
- There will be more "variants on a theme" channels (i.e. ESPNU), there will not be new channels in new genres, they are simply out of new genres.
- STBs will be eliminated, at least in high end instals. A TV will just look like a TV, with all of the reception stuff wired from outside the house.
- We will see local station in tiny markets go away as the ad rev is not there to support them, alhough cable/DBS will fill the gap by simply expanding other DMAs. We will also see radio stations go away. Music will move to SR, recorded media, and internet based "stations", talk will move from AM to FM and the AM stations will just simulcast to hold the place.


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## Rich

I think we'll be using solid state hard drives by then. 

Rich


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## jwktiger05

SamC said:


> IMHO, in 5 years:
> 
> - Telephones in hotel rooms will be rare, it will just expected that everyone will have a cell phone.
> - Every car will come with built in SR, except for the very cheepest.
> - Cable will have many more competitors for being an ISP. Breaking cable as an ISP is the key to its death.
> - The Longhorn Network will have failed, and similar efforts by other single teams will thus not happen.
> - Sports will continue to be distributed mostly as today.
> - Most people, regardless of their provider, will have "national access" to major channels. If you have a package that includes, say, ESPN, you will be able to watch ESPN on your computer, on your cell phone, and on a hotel TV.
> - There will be more "variants on a theme" channels (i.e. ESPNU), there will not be new channels in new genres, they are simply out of new genres.
> - STBs will be eliminated, at least in high end instals. A TV will just look like a TV, with all of the reception stuff wired from outside the house.
> - We will see local station in tiny markets go away as the ad rev is not there to support them, alhough cable/DBS will fill the gap by simply expanding other DMAs. We will also see radio stations go away. Music will move to SR, recorded media, and internet based "stations", talk will move from AM to FM and the AM stations will just simulcast to hold the place.


Agree with most of them; I really hope Longhorn network fails horribly.


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## skatingrocker17

rich584 said:


> I think we'll be using solid state hard drives by then.
> 
> Rich


The only real advantage that would give us is that it would be quieter. I guess it could be faster? Possibly. I know I'll never build or buy (a laptop) without an SSD.

I think we can all agree on one thing.... *prices WILL rise.*


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## Jeremy W

skatingrocker17 said:


> The only real advantage that would give us is that it would be quieter. I guess it could be faster?


Quieter, yes. But more importantly is that SSDs produce less heat, which would allow the boxes to be smaller. Speed is essentially irrelevant, since the hard drive speed is not a limiting factor in STBs.


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## RasputinAXP

SamC said:


> IMHO, in 5 years:
> 
> - Telephones in hotel rooms will be rare, it will just expected that everyone will have a cell phone.


Federal 911 requirements say no.


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## Rich

skatingrocker17 said:


> The only real advantage that would give us is that it would be quieter. I guess it could be faster? Possibly. I know I'll never build or buy (a laptop) without an SSD.
> 
> I think we can all agree on one thing.... *prices WILL rise.*


Should be much more stable than the HDDs we're using today. I've seen 240MB SSDs for sale lately.

Don't know how large they are now but they surely will get larger and larger and the prices should drop as they become the drive of choice.

Rich


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## Jeremy W

rich584 said:


> Should be much more stable than the HDDs we're using today.


I don't really have any stability issues with any of my HDDs. Not quite sure what you're referring to.


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## skatingrocker17

rich584 said:


> Should be much more stable than the HDDs we're using today. I've seen 240MB SSDs for sale lately.
> 
> Don't know how large they are now but they surely will get larger and larger and the prices should drop as they become the drive of choice.
> 
> Rich


As of now, SSDs have higher failure rate but that could change in the next 5 years. I have 6 year old HDDs that still work but since I haven't had an SSD as long I can't really say the same.

But I guess if you were recording 4 HD streams at once you could be bottlenecked by the speed of the HDD.


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## Jeremy W

skatingrocker17 said:


> But I guess if you were recording 4 HD streams at once you could be bottlenecked by the speed of the HDD.


Even if you were recording 4 HD streams at max OTA bitrate (19.2 Mbps) *and* playing back 4 HD streams at the same bitrate, you're not even coming close to the performance of a 7200rpm HDD. The hard drive simply is not the bottleneck in today's DVRs.


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## Drucifer

Jeremy W said:


> Even if you were recording 4 HD streams at max OTA bitrate (19.2 Mbps) *and* playing back 4 HD streams at the same bitrate, you're not even coming close to the performance of a 7200rpm HDD. The hard drive simply is not the bottleneck in today's DVRs.


Sure the hell slows down the guide.


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## Rich

Drucifer said:


> Sure the hell slows down the guide.


I think that's the processors, not the HDDs. I didn't mean the HDDs as we know them today were causing major problems. I have some problems with them, but nothing I can't handle. I just thought that from what I've read about the SSDs, they would be an upgrade over a mechanical HDD. I'd imagine that five years would be plenty of time for them to evolve into something we could use in DVRs, if DVRs are still around then.

Rich


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## Jeremy W

Drucifer said:


> Sure the hell slows down the guide.


That would be the processor, which is where the real bottleneck is.


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## kingofku

Compression and modulation schemes will improve allowing satellite providers to squeeze more signal with less bandwidth and not compromise (too much) the video quality.

HD programming will increase.

The FCC will mandate that satellite providers carry ATSC sub channels.

A la carte programming will finally become a reality.

DVR capacity will increase dramatically especially when they dump the spinning hard drives and go to solid state units.

Will check back in 5 years to see how I did.


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## Jeremy W

kingofku said:


> Compression modulation schemes will improve


Compression and modulation are two totally different and unrelated things.


kingofku said:


> DVR capacity will increase dramatically especially when they dump the spinning hard drives and go to solid state units.


A *capacity* increase with SSD? I can buy a 1TB hard drive today for less than $100. You can't even touch that price with 1/10 the capacity with an SSD. The technology will advance, no doubt about that. But we are absolutely not going to see price parity within the next five years, much less SSDs being cheaper.


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## harsh

kingofku said:


> Compression modulation schemes will improve allowing satellite providers to squeeze more signal with less bandwidth and not compromise (too much) the video quality.


While there is no doubt that real-time compression will improve (or be replaced by pre-compressed signals passed through), DIRECTV for their part has been hesitant to go to the more efficient modulation schemes with their Ka satellites. This may be an issue that doesn't get addressed.


> The FCC will mandate that satellite providers carry ATSC sub channels.


That's an interesting idea. I'm sure both satellite and cable providers will fight it tooth and nail.


> A la carte programming will finally become a reality.


You're smokin' dope on this one. The conglomeration is getting worse, not better. In five years there may only be a handful of media companies left.


> DVR capacity will increase dramatically especially when they dump the spinning hard drives and go to solid state units.


Not until they pretty much erase the lifespan issues related to a highly active SSD.


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## kingofku

Jeez. These were just my prognostications.....I wasn't quoting fact.

As to the modulation and compression - I omitted the word "AND" as in "Compression and Modulation schemes" I transmit HD signals using MPEG2 DVB-S2 8PSK using a third of the full transponder I would be using if I was still using MPEG2 DVB-S QPSK modulation. We're even toying with 32apsk.

With respect to the price reduction of solid state hard drives. It's supply and demand people. I can remember paying nearly $600 for a 300mb....that's right a 300 megabyte hard drive....so don't tell me that prices for the solid state drives are going to remain the same price.


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## Jeremy W

kingofku said:


> so don't tell me that prices for the solid state drives are going to remain the same price.


I never said they'd remain the same price, I said they weren't going to reach price parity with HDDs. Because while SSDs will come down in price, so will HDDs.


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## kingofku

Jeremy W said:


> I never said they'd remain the same price, I said they weren't going to reach price parity with HDDs. Because while SSDs will come down in price, so will HDDs.


Yeah, those 1TB drives will end up in the bargain bin at the 99cent store!


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## Jeremy W

kingofku said:


> Yeah, those 1TB drives will end up in the bargain bin at the 99cent store!


Not quite that drastic, but they're already well south of $100. The best price I could find on a 1TB SSD is almost $3000. There is a *huge* price gap still, and it's not going to close in five years.


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## kingofku

Jeremy W said:


> Not quite that drastic, but they're already well south of $100. The best price I could find on a 1TB SSD is almost $3000. There is a *huge* price gap still, and it's not going to close in five years.


Let's chat in 5 years to see where the price is.


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## TBlazer07

All sat and cable services will be FREE and wholly owned by the internet providers. You will be paying $250/month for broadband internet to cover the bandwidth because they will only allow you 1GB/month before charging you for going over the limit. :lol:


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## TBlazer07

kingofku said:


> I can remember paying nearly $600 for a 300mb....that's right a 300 megabyte hard drive....so don't tell me that prices for the solid state drives are going to remain the same price.


 You got a good deal. I paid $999.95 for a FIVE MEGABYTE SHUGART 3rd party drive for my TRS-80 Model 1 back in (IIRC) 1978-79. That was like $3000 in 2011 bucks. (The OEM 5MEGAbyte RS drive was $1500). Yea, that was before Apple and IBM.


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## Chris Blount

TBlazer07 said:


> You got a good deal. I paid $999.95 for a FIVE MEGABYTE SHUGART 3rd party drive for my TRS-80 Model 1 back in (IIRC) 1978-79. That was like $3000 in 2011 bucks. (The OEM 5MEGAbyte RS drive was $1500). Yea, that was before Apple and IBM.


That's just amazing to me. I bought my first computer in 1982 but didn't graduate to an actual hard drive (was using floppy discs for all those years) until 1990. My first hard drive was a tiny 30 MB drive for my Amiga 500 and it was $300.


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## maartena

Jeremy W said:


> Compression and modulation are two totally different and unrelated things.
> 
> A *capacity* increase with SSD? I can buy a 1TB hard drive today for less than $100. You can't even touch that price with 1/10 the capacity with an SSD. The technology will advance, no doubt about that. But we are absolutely not going to see price parity within the next five years, much less SSDs being cheaper.


I think that we should also realize that current harddrives are sufficient in speed to record 4 HD channels at once, as some cable DVR's and AT&T's DVR already do that on current hardware.

Since DirecTV is trying to keep these DVR's as cheap as possible, it is unlikely that they will come with an SSD by default, even in 5 years from now. Remember, DirecTV gives them out for "free" (you pay for it in the long run as a customer of course) to new customers, and they will want to give out something that is as cheap as possible, even with harddrive failures I think a million or so DVR's (they have 20 million customers, of which about half has 1 or more DVR's) with regular harddrives + failures, outweigh the cost of a million DVR's with SSD harddrives.


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## Jeremy W

maartena said:


> I think that we should also realize that current harddrives are sufficient in speed to record 4 HD channels at once, as some cable DVR's and AT&T's DVR already do that on current hardware.


Yes, I mentioned this earlier in the thread:


Jeremy W said:


> Even if you were recording 4 HD streams at max OTA bitrate (19.2 Mbps) *and* playing back 4 HD streams at the same bitrate, you're not even coming close to the performance of a 7200rpm HDD. The hard drive simply is not the bottleneck in today's DVRs.


SSDs absolutely have their uses, but DVR storage just isn't one of them.


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